1. Spontaneous combustion of batteries - sometimes while being driven.
2. Tires wear out faster - from the weight of the car.
3. Range goes way down when you are running the AC, and we use the AC a lot in Texas. Same thing when you run the heater in winter.
4. Fuel burned at the place you need the energy is more efficient that fuel burn…
1. Spontaneous combustion of batteries - sometimes while being driven.
2. Tires wear out faster - from the weight of the car.
3. Range goes way down when you are running the AC, and we use the AC a lot in Texas. Same thing when you run the heater in winter.
4. Fuel burned at the place you need the energy is more efficient that fuel burned in a power plant miles away and all the transmission losses along the way. I’m guessing the emissions for an EV charged on the grid may be more than an ICE car - no one wants to do that study!!
5. Cost of battery replacement when it needs to be replaced, and the disposal of the battery is a real problem so far. Recycling needs to improve before it is practical to have everyone driving EVs.
I remember last winter battery-powered buses in Sofia had the heating turned off to save on power.
The battery lifetime issue -- thanks for bringing it up. That's another big problem for me, but for people who don't drive their cars for more than 5 year it won't matter. Disposal problem aside.
Right. Let the second owner deal with all the battery problems. I’m sure that will hurt the resale value of EVs when more and more people run into these problems.
Tesla uses a heat pump for heat/cooling. Very efficient. The lack of waste heat in an EV is a plus not a minus. Waste heat is wasted energy and ICE vehicles waste about 85% of the gasoline energy content.
Cool. I understand that there is a lot of energy losses at each step of the electricity generation process. Efficiency losses at the point where fuel is burned to turn the turbines, then each time it goes through a transformer, then through transmission lines, then back through transformers to get back to 220v or whatever your Tesla charger is, then efficiency losses when charging your battery then again when discharging your battery. I have always wondered what percentage all these losses add up to. Is there a way to figure this out? For example is it more efficient to burn gas to cook my bacon on a gas stove or to burn gas at the power plant and go through all the transmission losses noted above?
That's true but you can run on natural gas @ 10X lower cost per unit energy than gasoline or diesel right now. Burning at 60% efficiency in a CCGT which is 4X more efficient than the average ICE vehicle efficiency. So 60% eff X 90% transmission eff x 90% charging eff x 90% BEV efficiency = 44% efficient vs 15% for the ICE vehicle. 3X more efficient and 10X lower fuel energy cost. Not hard to figure out why people want BEVs. Just wait until they are readily available in heavy Trucks.
Burn natural gas @10x lower cost per unit energy than gasoline or diesel?? Maybe years ago. Either my back of the envelope math is out the window or I didn’t understand correctly. Help me here. You will need to burn 126.67 cubic feet of natural gas to produce the same energy as one gallon of gasoline. https://techiescientist.com/natural-gas-vs-gasoline/
In Texas @ $25 per 1000cuft equates to $3.15 a gallon gas. $0.025 X 126 = $3.15
I'm getting $2/liter for heating oil/diesel vs Natural Gas @ $5/GJ. Diesel @ 38MJ/liter is $2/0.038MJ= $53/GJ or 10X more than natural gas.
Power plants in the US last year were paying avg ~$4/GJ for natural gas with gasoline 29.2L per GJ is equivalent to paying $4/29.2 = 13.7 cents/liter for gasoline or 51 cents/USgal which is ~10x lower than gasoline prices now.
I am not an EV fan. A hybrid would work for me with my solar for our 10 to 20 km trips. Except for November through February. Economically makes NO sense. I have my Fiat 500X Diesel. For homeowners with solar and small trips it can make sense except for the economics of initial purchase and electrifying the house. Forget apartment dwellers. Here in Germany you CANNOT find an electrician anymore for installation.
As far as battery recycling there is better news out now for secondary use as storage and much longer life albeit with reduced capacity. In other words the batteries can continue to be used for years in stationary operation where weight is not a factor.
Range anxiety and always hoping you find a charging station AND then having to wait makes current EVs useless for medium to long range travel.
1) Big factor is the 6X higher cost of energy for the ICE vehicle. That's the BIG one. Once they become available to Truckers they will not want an ICE truck. Operating costs are the killer.
2) More maintenance issues and breakdowns, EVs don't have all the brake pad replacement, multitude of oil changes, engine coolant, battery fluid, catalytic convertor/muffler replacement, exhaust corrosion, engine & transmission failure problems.
3) Much better performance, better stability, better turning capability, much better acceleration, much easier to have autopilot, much safer in a collision, quieter, much better on hilly roads, built in portable AC power, better for cold weather or hot weather operation, better during flooding and have longer range & operational time than ICE vehicles during bad traffic or evacuation type situations.
4) Less dependent on infrastructure breakdown. Electricity is more fundamental than gasoline long distance supply security. That can easily fail in time of war, natural disaster or government mismanagement (right now deliberate). You can also charge your EV with solar panels and supply emergency home power.
1a) The continuing cost of energy for ICE is higher than EVs, and even with cheaper gas it would be 2x or 3x. Fair point, BUT: the up-front premium for comparable vehicles is significantly more. Hell, you don't even need to look at the comparison between similar vehicles, just look at the YoY price increases. If you intended to buy a Tesla to save on cost of gas--most people don't but whatever--just this last year's price hikes would've mooted 1-5 years of fuel costs depending on how much you drive, but most people who own EVs don't drive that much as they can afford to live near their work. Then consider running costs like tire life and you're not saving much from an EV. But I should double-back and say the vast majority of people aren't doing the math, and to be brutally honest if you're doing this much math to buy a vehicle then I would suggest abstaining on that vehicle or buying something used. 99% of people will only think of not paying for gas a means to be smug to people around them.
1b) The Tesla semi cannot haul more than three tons of cargo according to NHTSA limits. The battery makes the vehicle itself far too heavy to be practical and still road-legal. This is coming from someone who has sat inside a Tesla semi. A very cool looking vehicle, but its weight and range/charging problems make it infeasible. The proof is in the pudding as the semi is still not out yet and has been the source of multiple resignations due to Tesla overpromising only for the engineers to say no and then told to do it anyways.
2) See 1a; nonetheless, yeah I would agree running costs are lower if you lease or manage to sell the car at a price that doesn't factor in battery-life depreciation. Having to replace batteries is an endemic issue.
3) Performance-wise I would disagree: you can launch a Model S Plaid about three times consecutively before it starts to lose performance and range drastically. Hard driving does much the same. I've done drives in the hills with friends and their Teslas go on limp mode. The weight of these vehicles is an issue and brake pads/tires are constant. With this being said, the last AutoCross (look it up) competition was won by a stripped-out and lightly modified Model 3 Performance. They certainly do boogie. As an enthusiast, I appreciate the insane 0-60 times, but it's lacking. I can add by saying there aren't too many people who will gleefully launch a car that hard without feeling deprived of the engagement and drama of ICE. Still. Very fast. The rest of your points are semantic. Could go either way.
4) No. Lol. By that same token, I can buy cans of propane, some gasoline, a grill, and a generator to be just as well-off as someone with solar panels. They also charge insanely slow and are inconsistent. You've managed to say the opposite of what is commonly conceded by proponents of electricity/renewables--that being a weak grid leading to chaos. Gas is definitely better security-wise. Solar panels are a good addition if you have the space, but we can't assume this as a constant in planning our future.
1) No EPA shows a 6X lower cost of energy than a comparable ICE vehicle, and that is getting worse for the ICE vehicle.
The Tesla model Y is now the #1 selling vehicle on the planet, having edged out the Toyota Corolla which has held that position since 1974. You get maybe 10% of their customers are EV enthusiasts, the other 90% buy them because they've examined the specs, cost, maintenance, etc and chosen EV over ICE vehicle. They if anything are a smarter bunch of consumers. So that's your proof that people don't buy your argument. BTW I drive an ICE vehicle and don't want an EV because where I am the numbers don't add up, but that's not everybody. I got a big problem with forcing people to get EVs, it should be up to fair market competition.
Tires? Maintenance costs of EVs are substantially lower than ICE vehicles. The Teslas with the new 4680 cells are expecting million mile range on the vehicle incl battery.
Self-driving is a major selling point for commuters and for safety reasons, 10X safer already.
1b) "Tesla semi cannot haul more than three tons of cargo according to NHTSA limits"
Where do you get that crap from? The battery only weighs 12000lbs and is a structural battery so you are saying it will loose 57,000lbs of cargo due to a 12,000lb battery?!?
In fact the Tesla semi will carry as much or even more than the diesel truck:
"In its 2020 Impact report, Tesla said that it now expects the Tesla Semi to be able to carry a payload “at least as high as it would be for a diesel truck.” And expects 1/2 the operating costs of a diesel truck. That's why people will buy them. In fact you will have to beat truck drivers off with a stick they will want them so bad.
The delay in production is as always ramping up battery production. They are 2yrs behind in cell manufacture, demand for their vehicles is so high. Not helped by the Government pushing wind/solar battery backup.
2) Battery replacement is not endemic. It is less expensive and less common than engine/transmission replacement in an ICE vehicle. Tesla is figuring million mile battery packs with the 4680 cells.
3) No if batteries lost performance that rapidly the pack would be finished within one year. That's nonsense. They are designed for that capability. And warrantied for it. Brake pads get very little wear since they use regenerative braking.
4) I'm not talking about a home solar power setup. Just basic solar panels and inverter to charge your BEV which also supplies portable/emergency power, and a lot cheaper than fueling an ICE vehicle. You would have to store a lot of fuel as an alternative to that. Fuel storage is expensive and dangerous. You have a fuel leak that can cost you or your insurance company over a $million. Stored gas cannot match the energy you will get from solar panels in a good solar location. 10kw solar panels, 40kwh/day, or 140miles/day vs 7gal gas/day for the same. That's a lot of gas storage. Good for short duration but for those who want long duration fuel independence solar/EV would be attractive.
And who says I'm big on "renewables". Wind solar are impractical for grid electricity except for niche applications. But electricity is the future for just about everything including aircraft will be going electric propulsion (hybrid). A lifetime in industry I've seen electric takeover just about everything, what used to be diesel, hydraulic or pneumatic has been replaced by electric. And vehicles will be no exception. For long range a series hybrid can be used, which will be just a standard BEV skateboard chassis with a smaller battery and a extreme efficiency one speed diesel engine, perhaps an opposing piston flat engine. But when the charging infrastructure is in place people seem to just prefer a fast charging coffee break when they go long distance.
6. Massive drop in battery capacity, charging speed, and overall lifespan in cold climates. Teslas have to warm up the batteries before you can start supercharging. I'd assume the same applies to others. If I'm remembering correctly, winter temperatures will decrease battery performance by 50%, if not more. Go to any Northwest State in the winter and you'll notice people install block heaters to warm up their engines before they crank them so they don't turn into a solid piece of metal. Insanely cold. Good luck in an EV.
7. Good luck towing anything. Although EV vehicles have instant power, thus allowing them to tow a lot per se, their range while towing is awful. This is common knowledge after people tried using their Rivians as work trucks. Have fun hauling anything more than mulch in the bed. A decent-sized load will cut range by 50%+. Diesel trucks will take a hit from towing, but you can install auxiliary fuel tanks for extra range and once those go it's just a matter of refueling. My buddy's F-350 has two additional fuel tanks. It can haul anything short of a main battle tank. By contrast, I remember being in a group where some guy tried to tow his Ferrari with a Model X and spent over 24hrs going a few hundred miles. I don't remember the exact range, but it was ridiculously inefficient at towing as it required frequent off-route charges--but on paper they'll tell you it can tow a house haha.
1. Spontaneous combustion of batteries - sometimes while being driven.
2. Tires wear out faster - from the weight of the car.
3. Range goes way down when you are running the AC, and we use the AC a lot in Texas. Same thing when you run the heater in winter.
4. Fuel burned at the place you need the energy is more efficient that fuel burned in a power plant miles away and all the transmission losses along the way. I’m guessing the emissions for an EV charged on the grid may be more than an ICE car - no one wants to do that study!!
5. Cost of battery replacement when it needs to be replaced, and the disposal of the battery is a real problem so far. Recycling needs to improve before it is practical to have everyone driving EVs.
I remember last winter battery-powered buses in Sofia had the heating turned off to save on power.
The battery lifetime issue -- thanks for bringing it up. That's another big problem for me, but for people who don't drive their cars for more than 5 year it won't matter. Disposal problem aside.
Right. Let the second owner deal with all the battery problems. I’m sure that will hurt the resale value of EVs when more and more people run into these problems.
The good thing about inefficient ICEs is that there is plenty of waste heat to keep the bus warm
The waste heat from EVs is at the electric motors that drive the wheels. No way to get that heat into the passenger compartment. Good try.
Tesla uses a heat pump for heat/cooling. Very efficient. The lack of waste heat in an EV is a plus not a minus. Waste heat is wasted energy and ICE vehicles waste about 85% of the gasoline energy content.
Cool. I understand that there is a lot of energy losses at each step of the electricity generation process. Efficiency losses at the point where fuel is burned to turn the turbines, then each time it goes through a transformer, then through transmission lines, then back through transformers to get back to 220v or whatever your Tesla charger is, then efficiency losses when charging your battery then again when discharging your battery. I have always wondered what percentage all these losses add up to. Is there a way to figure this out? For example is it more efficient to burn gas to cook my bacon on a gas stove or to burn gas at the power plant and go through all the transmission losses noted above?
That's true but you can run on natural gas @ 10X lower cost per unit energy than gasoline or diesel right now. Burning at 60% efficiency in a CCGT which is 4X more efficient than the average ICE vehicle efficiency. So 60% eff X 90% transmission eff x 90% charging eff x 90% BEV efficiency = 44% efficient vs 15% for the ICE vehicle. 3X more efficient and 10X lower fuel energy cost. Not hard to figure out why people want BEVs. Just wait until they are readily available in heavy Trucks.
Burn natural gas @10x lower cost per unit energy than gasoline or diesel?? Maybe years ago. Either my back of the envelope math is out the window or I didn’t understand correctly. Help me here. You will need to burn 126.67 cubic feet of natural gas to produce the same energy as one gallon of gasoline. https://techiescientist.com/natural-gas-vs-gasoline/
In Texas @ $25 per 1000cuft equates to $3.15 a gallon gas. $0.025 X 126 = $3.15
In NJ about $1.60. https://www.chooseenergy.com/data-center/natural-gas-rates-by-state/
In Germany @$675 equates to $85 a gallon gas.
I'm getting $2/liter for heating oil/diesel vs Natural Gas @ $5/GJ. Diesel @ 38MJ/liter is $2/0.038MJ= $53/GJ or 10X more than natural gas.
Power plants in the US last year were paying avg ~$4/GJ for natural gas with gasoline 29.2L per GJ is equivalent to paying $4/29.2 = 13.7 cents/liter for gasoline or 51 cents/USgal which is ~10x lower than gasoline prices now.
Be thankful you don’t need to buy NG in Germany. Where are you based?
I am not an EV fan. A hybrid would work for me with my solar for our 10 to 20 km trips. Except for November through February. Economically makes NO sense. I have my Fiat 500X Diesel. For homeowners with solar and small trips it can make sense except for the economics of initial purchase and electrifying the house. Forget apartment dwellers. Here in Germany you CANNOT find an electrician anymore for installation.
As far as battery recycling there is better news out now for secondary use as storage and much longer life albeit with reduced capacity. In other words the batteries can continue to be used for years in stationary operation where weight is not a factor.
Range anxiety and always hoping you find a charging station AND then having to wait makes current EVs useless for medium to long range travel.
1) Big factor is the 6X higher cost of energy for the ICE vehicle. That's the BIG one. Once they become available to Truckers they will not want an ICE truck. Operating costs are the killer.
2) More maintenance issues and breakdowns, EVs don't have all the brake pad replacement, multitude of oil changes, engine coolant, battery fluid, catalytic convertor/muffler replacement, exhaust corrosion, engine & transmission failure problems.
3) Much better performance, better stability, better turning capability, much better acceleration, much easier to have autopilot, much safer in a collision, quieter, much better on hilly roads, built in portable AC power, better for cold weather or hot weather operation, better during flooding and have longer range & operational time than ICE vehicles during bad traffic or evacuation type situations.
4) Less dependent on infrastructure breakdown. Electricity is more fundamental than gasoline long distance supply security. That can easily fail in time of war, natural disaster or government mismanagement (right now deliberate). You can also charge your EV with solar panels and supply emergency home power.
To your points:
1a) The continuing cost of energy for ICE is higher than EVs, and even with cheaper gas it would be 2x or 3x. Fair point, BUT: the up-front premium for comparable vehicles is significantly more. Hell, you don't even need to look at the comparison between similar vehicles, just look at the YoY price increases. If you intended to buy a Tesla to save on cost of gas--most people don't but whatever--just this last year's price hikes would've mooted 1-5 years of fuel costs depending on how much you drive, but most people who own EVs don't drive that much as they can afford to live near their work. Then consider running costs like tire life and you're not saving much from an EV. But I should double-back and say the vast majority of people aren't doing the math, and to be brutally honest if you're doing this much math to buy a vehicle then I would suggest abstaining on that vehicle or buying something used. 99% of people will only think of not paying for gas a means to be smug to people around them.
1b) The Tesla semi cannot haul more than three tons of cargo according to NHTSA limits. The battery makes the vehicle itself far too heavy to be practical and still road-legal. This is coming from someone who has sat inside a Tesla semi. A very cool looking vehicle, but its weight and range/charging problems make it infeasible. The proof is in the pudding as the semi is still not out yet and has been the source of multiple resignations due to Tesla overpromising only for the engineers to say no and then told to do it anyways.
Video explaining this better than I did: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w__a8EcM2jI
2) See 1a; nonetheless, yeah I would agree running costs are lower if you lease or manage to sell the car at a price that doesn't factor in battery-life depreciation. Having to replace batteries is an endemic issue.
3) Performance-wise I would disagree: you can launch a Model S Plaid about three times consecutively before it starts to lose performance and range drastically. Hard driving does much the same. I've done drives in the hills with friends and their Teslas go on limp mode. The weight of these vehicles is an issue and brake pads/tires are constant. With this being said, the last AutoCross (look it up) competition was won by a stripped-out and lightly modified Model 3 Performance. They certainly do boogie. As an enthusiast, I appreciate the insane 0-60 times, but it's lacking. I can add by saying there aren't too many people who will gleefully launch a car that hard without feeling deprived of the engagement and drama of ICE. Still. Very fast. The rest of your points are semantic. Could go either way.
4) No. Lol. By that same token, I can buy cans of propane, some gasoline, a grill, and a generator to be just as well-off as someone with solar panels. They also charge insanely slow and are inconsistent. You've managed to say the opposite of what is commonly conceded by proponents of electricity/renewables--that being a weak grid leading to chaos. Gas is definitely better security-wise. Solar panels are a good addition if you have the space, but we can't assume this as a constant in planning our future.
1) No EPA shows a 6X lower cost of energy than a comparable ICE vehicle, and that is getting worse for the ICE vehicle.
The Tesla model Y is now the #1 selling vehicle on the planet, having edged out the Toyota Corolla which has held that position since 1974. You get maybe 10% of their customers are EV enthusiasts, the other 90% buy them because they've examined the specs, cost, maintenance, etc and chosen EV over ICE vehicle. They if anything are a smarter bunch of consumers. So that's your proof that people don't buy your argument. BTW I drive an ICE vehicle and don't want an EV because where I am the numbers don't add up, but that's not everybody. I got a big problem with forcing people to get EVs, it should be up to fair market competition.
Tires? Maintenance costs of EVs are substantially lower than ICE vehicles. The Teslas with the new 4680 cells are expecting million mile range on the vehicle incl battery.
Self-driving is a major selling point for commuters and for safety reasons, 10X safer already.
1b) "Tesla semi cannot haul more than three tons of cargo according to NHTSA limits"
Where do you get that crap from? The battery only weighs 12000lbs and is a structural battery so you are saying it will loose 57,000lbs of cargo due to a 12,000lb battery?!?
In fact the Tesla semi will carry as much or even more than the diesel truck:
"In its 2020 Impact report, Tesla said that it now expects the Tesla Semi to be able to carry a payload “at least as high as it would be for a diesel truck.” And expects 1/2 the operating costs of a diesel truck. That's why people will buy them. In fact you will have to beat truck drivers off with a stick they will want them so bad.
The delay in production is as always ramping up battery production. They are 2yrs behind in cell manufacture, demand for their vehicles is so high. Not helped by the Government pushing wind/solar battery backup.
2) Battery replacement is not endemic. It is less expensive and less common than engine/transmission replacement in an ICE vehicle. Tesla is figuring million mile battery packs with the 4680 cells.
3) No if batteries lost performance that rapidly the pack would be finished within one year. That's nonsense. They are designed for that capability. And warrantied for it. Brake pads get very little wear since they use regenerative braking.
4) I'm not talking about a home solar power setup. Just basic solar panels and inverter to charge your BEV which also supplies portable/emergency power, and a lot cheaper than fueling an ICE vehicle. You would have to store a lot of fuel as an alternative to that. Fuel storage is expensive and dangerous. You have a fuel leak that can cost you or your insurance company over a $million. Stored gas cannot match the energy you will get from solar panels in a good solar location. 10kw solar panels, 40kwh/day, or 140miles/day vs 7gal gas/day for the same. That's a lot of gas storage. Good for short duration but for those who want long duration fuel independence solar/EV would be attractive.
And who says I'm big on "renewables". Wind solar are impractical for grid electricity except for niche applications. But electricity is the future for just about everything including aircraft will be going electric propulsion (hybrid). A lifetime in industry I've seen electric takeover just about everything, what used to be diesel, hydraulic or pneumatic has been replaced by electric. And vehicles will be no exception. For long range a series hybrid can be used, which will be just a standard BEV skateboard chassis with a smaller battery and a extreme efficiency one speed diesel engine, perhaps an opposing piston flat engine. But when the charging infrastructure is in place people seem to just prefer a fast charging coffee break when they go long distance.
6. Massive drop in battery capacity, charging speed, and overall lifespan in cold climates. Teslas have to warm up the batteries before you can start supercharging. I'd assume the same applies to others. If I'm remembering correctly, winter temperatures will decrease battery performance by 50%, if not more. Go to any Northwest State in the winter and you'll notice people install block heaters to warm up their engines before they crank them so they don't turn into a solid piece of metal. Insanely cold. Good luck in an EV.
7. Good luck towing anything. Although EV vehicles have instant power, thus allowing them to tow a lot per se, their range while towing is awful. This is common knowledge after people tried using their Rivians as work trucks. Have fun hauling anything more than mulch in the bed. A decent-sized load will cut range by 50%+. Diesel trucks will take a hit from towing, but you can install auxiliary fuel tanks for extra range and once those go it's just a matter of refueling. My buddy's F-350 has two additional fuel tanks. It can haul anything short of a main battle tank. By contrast, I remember being in a group where some guy tried to tow his Ferrari with a Model X and spent over 24hrs going a few hundred miles. I don't remember the exact range, but it was ridiculously inefficient at towing as it required frequent off-route charges--but on paper they'll tell you it can tow a house haha.