I've been in IT long enough to know that the AI systems behind self-driving cars, "full" or otherwise, are like a 5-year-old driving a Mac truck.
All IT systems always miss something. They're called "boundary conditions". In a business environment, they upgrade the software and move on. Nobody loses one's life.
In driving a vehicle, conditions can change frequently AND unpredictably. People, in general, have a hard time keeping up with changing and unpredictable conditions, so software has an even harder time.
You want to put your life in the hands of a "5-year old", be my guest.
Tesla gets constant feedback data on their self-driving effectiveness. Already a 10X improvement in accident stats. And that continues to improve. When stats come back with what 100X improvement over human drivers and with over 40k people killed in traffic accidents every year, how long do you think they can suppress self-driving let alone mandate it for every vehicle? The thing about it is, once you get it working as it already is, it's just a matter of continual improvement and sooner or later it will supplant human operators. That's a given. Plus most people would rather be able to read, interact on their phones, play video games, do office work, or whatever rather than be focused on another 40min drive to work stuck in traffic. That's a lot of lost time 80min/day for a lot of people.
The thing about it is, AI developers and systems are ALWAYS playing catch-up. That's what happens in IT. Conditions always change and are ALWAYS unpredictable.
If you've ever been in IT, you would KNOW to NEVER put your life in the hands of an AI system, especially in such a chaotic system such as automobile traffic.
Tell a modern fighter pilot that. Their planes fly in a state of unstable equilibrium, the software literally prevents the plane from flying apart with millisecond adjustments to the control surfaces.
It is a tricky question though. You put in an AI so it saves the lives of 999 out of a thousand goofy, careless teenagers who kill themselves in auto crashes. But 1 of the thousand was a really smart, conscientious, careful driver who got killed due to a software bug. For the 1 who died, the FSD was deadly. Essentially she was sacrificed so the 999 careless drivers lived. I would prefer it be optional to use the FSD or go manual. Then if the good driver chooses to use the FSD and it kills her, then it was her personal choice. But I'm not so sure future drivers will be given that option, due to all the deaths the FSD prevents.
AI in a jet fighter has significantly less chaotic SURROUNDING conditions than driving a vehicle in traffic in which external surrounding conditions change CONSTANTLY and unpredictably.
All the other surrounding vehicles behave erratically and unpredictably.
If you're so confident in AI, then put it in a Mac truck in heavy traffic with rainy, wet conditions, lighting or fog or heat or a tornado or thick snow or icy conditions, say along the "Highway Thru Hell", especially during during the winter time.
Oh, and a fully-loaded trailer.
And you be the passenger. all by yourself.
We all don't live in sunny southern California where most "self-driving" vehicles are developed.
Sorry for intruding on your argument but I find what you're saying about AI very interesting. Disturbing, too, of course. The idea of Tesla being able to control your car remotely is also disturbing. Could you tell me more about that, at your convenience, of course. Also, with all this unpredictability in traffic, which is a fact we're all familiar with, do autonomous vehicles have any real future?
Oh, yes, FSD is definitely coming. You reach a certain threshold with tech, where it works 99% of the time, the rest is just long boring process of debugging and updating the tech. Tesla has just brought on line this DOJO supercomputer to do a lot of that.
I'm not sure to what degree Tesla can "remote control" your car. They can update the software. If that became a problem I'm sure some hackers will find a way to block such actions or people won't buy any cars that utilize such capabilities. Like Amazon's doorbell camera turning over video to police, is a big red flag to people who may no longer be interested in getting Amazon doorbells.
The FSD will work with ICE vehicles as well. If Tesla, Google and various others get it working you can be sure all manufacturers will buy it. EVs are a bit easier to control than ICE vehicles but that is not a significant issue. The more scary part is if they make it compulsory and allow authorities to seize control over your vehicle. Every tech ever invented has a dark side.
Yes there are more degrees of freedom in the chaotic world of human driving but the big difference is you have responses of <1msec to maintain control over a jet aircraft whereas an attentive human has a response time of ~300msec and an inattentive human 1 sec or more. Those are very long response times for automatic systems. And a jet aircraft has no failsafe. If like on a Tesla has 2 separate CPUs error check each other and any error or conflict or unknown simply slow down, move away from obstacles, and warn operator is pretty simple minded. The facts speak for themselves. Even beta testing FSD these early versions are showing 10X lower accident rate than in manual operation.
The big problem with human operators is they fall asleep at the wheel, have medical emergencies, drink or take drugs while driving, are distracted with conversion or phones, or get in a party mood and don't focus on driving, or are just crazy people like the movie actress who just mowed through some old ladies house @ 90mph. Easy to avoid all that crap with an AI.
A Tesla Semi-truck with all wheel drive is supposed to be immune to jack-knifing, it can control steering and individual wheel speed to the msec. No human operator can come close to that performance. Problem with truck drivers is they have microsleeps, they actually fall asleep for 1-5secs and aren't even aware that it happened. No question about it, an AI truck driver would be more safe than a human operator in highway driving 99% of the time. Getting into city traffic, dropping off loads and picking up loads, will remain for human operators for awhile, but the boring highway driving, best left to an A.I. And that will be the first use legal use of FSD. It's coming, very soon.
Okay, you think AI is so wonderful, then my challenge still stands:
You become a passenger in a Mac truck controlled by an AI driver with a fully loaded trailer travelling down the "Highway Thru Hell" (British Columbia's Coquihalla Highway) in the dead of winter with thick snow, fog, and icy roads and similar rigs all around you.
You have no ability to control the truck's driving whatsoever, not even braking.
Until YOU personally do that, you're just blowing hot air.
I driven the "highway thru hell" that's bullshit. Go on highway #1 east of golden, bc and then you will know what highway thru hell is. And who says i think AI is so wonderful, it has its uses, like all tech. Current Tesla FSD has some difficulties with snowy conditions so I would say it is not ready for that application, YET. Incremental improvement they'll get it right eventually. Especially for big rigs, that's high value hardware so spending on extra sensors and better sensors is a lot more cost effective. The MCU can take actions in millisecs vs the human operator takes at least 300msec and cannot act directly on all the vehicle drive components, while the MCU can. It can individually adjust wheel torque to prevent slippage or to aid in turns. So inevitably FSD trucks will beat out humans in all but the most difficult situations, which are really mostly in loading centers where a lot of complex moves are required. So drivers will be used where needed, and just like on highly automated commercial aircraft there will be drivers ready to take control if there is a problem for awhile until the vehicles are proven out. Also you will have a lot of convoy driving with one driver in the front leading vehicles behind him.
I'm not a Nascar fan but what would this mean for car racing? Would it now become less of a car race and more of who's got the better IT? Beer sales at the track would, no doubt, plummet.
Definitely, it is only a matter of time when an AI will outperform the best driver. Auto racing will be more like a robot challenge, best tech team wins. I would imagine most spectator sports are in decline because people like to stay at home and be entertained with their video devices.
Well when they have full self-driving you can focus on all the bells and whistles and ignore the driving.
I've been in IT long enough to know that the AI systems behind self-driving cars, "full" or otherwise, are like a 5-year-old driving a Mac truck.
All IT systems always miss something. They're called "boundary conditions". In a business environment, they upgrade the software and move on. Nobody loses one's life.
In driving a vehicle, conditions can change frequently AND unpredictably. People, in general, have a hard time keeping up with changing and unpredictable conditions, so software has an even harder time.
You want to put your life in the hands of a "5-year old", be my guest.
Tesla gets constant feedback data on their self-driving effectiveness. Already a 10X improvement in accident stats. And that continues to improve. When stats come back with what 100X improvement over human drivers and with over 40k people killed in traffic accidents every year, how long do you think they can suppress self-driving let alone mandate it for every vehicle? The thing about it is, once you get it working as it already is, it's just a matter of continual improvement and sooner or later it will supplant human operators. That's a given. Plus most people would rather be able to read, interact on their phones, play video games, do office work, or whatever rather than be focused on another 40min drive to work stuck in traffic. That's a lot of lost time 80min/day for a lot of people.
"Already a 10X improvement in accident stats."
That's encouraging!
The thing about it is, AI developers and systems are ALWAYS playing catch-up. That's what happens in IT. Conditions always change and are ALWAYS unpredictable.
If you've ever been in IT, you would KNOW to NEVER put your life in the hands of an AI system, especially in such a chaotic system such as automobile traffic.
Tell a modern fighter pilot that. Their planes fly in a state of unstable equilibrium, the software literally prevents the plane from flying apart with millisecond adjustments to the control surfaces.
It is a tricky question though. You put in an AI so it saves the lives of 999 out of a thousand goofy, careless teenagers who kill themselves in auto crashes. But 1 of the thousand was a really smart, conscientious, careful driver who got killed due to a software bug. For the 1 who died, the FSD was deadly. Essentially she was sacrificed so the 999 careless drivers lived. I would prefer it be optional to use the FSD or go manual. Then if the good driver chooses to use the FSD and it kills her, then it was her personal choice. But I'm not so sure future drivers will be given that option, due to all the deaths the FSD prevents.
Wrong.
AI in a jet fighter has significantly less chaotic SURROUNDING conditions than driving a vehicle in traffic in which external surrounding conditions change CONSTANTLY and unpredictably.
All the other surrounding vehicles behave erratically and unpredictably.
If you're so confident in AI, then put it in a Mac truck in heavy traffic with rainy, wet conditions, lighting or fog or heat or a tornado or thick snow or icy conditions, say along the "Highway Thru Hell", especially during during the winter time.
Oh, and a fully-loaded trailer.
And you be the passenger. all by yourself.
We all don't live in sunny southern California where most "self-driving" vehicles are developed.
Sorry for intruding on your argument but I find what you're saying about AI very interesting. Disturbing, too, of course. The idea of Tesla being able to control your car remotely is also disturbing. Could you tell me more about that, at your convenience, of course. Also, with all this unpredictability in traffic, which is a fact we're all familiar with, do autonomous vehicles have any real future?
Oh, yes, FSD is definitely coming. You reach a certain threshold with tech, where it works 99% of the time, the rest is just long boring process of debugging and updating the tech. Tesla has just brought on line this DOJO supercomputer to do a lot of that.
I'm not sure to what degree Tesla can "remote control" your car. They can update the software. If that became a problem I'm sure some hackers will find a way to block such actions or people won't buy any cars that utilize such capabilities. Like Amazon's doorbell camera turning over video to police, is a big red flag to people who may no longer be interested in getting Amazon doorbells.
The FSD will work with ICE vehicles as well. If Tesla, Google and various others get it working you can be sure all manufacturers will buy it. EVs are a bit easier to control than ICE vehicles but that is not a significant issue. The more scary part is if they make it compulsory and allow authorities to seize control over your vehicle. Every tech ever invented has a dark side.
If you want to see how Tesla FSD works just watch the many videos on Youtube, i.e.:
https://www.youtube.com/c/TaiigerBlue/videos
Yes there are more degrees of freedom in the chaotic world of human driving but the big difference is you have responses of <1msec to maintain control over a jet aircraft whereas an attentive human has a response time of ~300msec and an inattentive human 1 sec or more. Those are very long response times for automatic systems. And a jet aircraft has no failsafe. If like on a Tesla has 2 separate CPUs error check each other and any error or conflict or unknown simply slow down, move away from obstacles, and warn operator is pretty simple minded. The facts speak for themselves. Even beta testing FSD these early versions are showing 10X lower accident rate than in manual operation.
The big problem with human operators is they fall asleep at the wheel, have medical emergencies, drink or take drugs while driving, are distracted with conversion or phones, or get in a party mood and don't focus on driving, or are just crazy people like the movie actress who just mowed through some old ladies house @ 90mph. Easy to avoid all that crap with an AI.
A Tesla Semi-truck with all wheel drive is supposed to be immune to jack-knifing, it can control steering and individual wheel speed to the msec. No human operator can come close to that performance. Problem with truck drivers is they have microsleeps, they actually fall asleep for 1-5secs and aren't even aware that it happened. No question about it, an AI truck driver would be more safe than a human operator in highway driving 99% of the time. Getting into city traffic, dropping off loads and picking up loads, will remain for human operators for awhile, but the boring highway driving, best left to an A.I. And that will be the first use legal use of FSD. It's coming, very soon.
Okay, you think AI is so wonderful, then my challenge still stands:
You become a passenger in a Mac truck controlled by an AI driver with a fully loaded trailer travelling down the "Highway Thru Hell" (British Columbia's Coquihalla Highway) in the dead of winter with thick snow, fog, and icy roads and similar rigs all around you.
You have no ability to control the truck's driving whatsoever, not even braking.
Until YOU personally do that, you're just blowing hot air.
I driven the "highway thru hell" that's bullshit. Go on highway #1 east of golden, bc and then you will know what highway thru hell is. And who says i think AI is so wonderful, it has its uses, like all tech. Current Tesla FSD has some difficulties with snowy conditions so I would say it is not ready for that application, YET. Incremental improvement they'll get it right eventually. Especially for big rigs, that's high value hardware so spending on extra sensors and better sensors is a lot more cost effective. The MCU can take actions in millisecs vs the human operator takes at least 300msec and cannot act directly on all the vehicle drive components, while the MCU can. It can individually adjust wheel torque to prevent slippage or to aid in turns. So inevitably FSD trucks will beat out humans in all but the most difficult situations, which are really mostly in loading centers where a lot of complex moves are required. So drivers will be used where needed, and just like on highly automated commercial aircraft there will be drivers ready to take control if there is a problem for awhile until the vehicles are proven out. Also you will have a lot of convoy driving with one driver in the front leading vehicles behind him.
I'm not a Nascar fan but what would this mean for car racing? Would it now become less of a car race and more of who's got the better IT? Beer sales at the track would, no doubt, plummet.
Definitely, it is only a matter of time when an AI will outperform the best driver. Auto racing will be more like a robot challenge, best tech team wins. I would imagine most spectator sports are in decline because people like to stay at home and be entertained with their video devices.