We've been hearing about the possibility of protests in Europe because of the energy crisis. Many, including politicians, are bracing up for them. What say you, especially those in Europe, UK included?
Oh it’s coming! People will likely be cold and hungry this winter in Europe. From Finland to Switzerland. The question is, will it be a wake-up call for the dereliction of woke politicians (“How Dare You”) for secure and stable energy or will it lead to more cries of this is why we need to eliminate fossil fuels and nuclear. I am worried about the later. History will not treat Angela Merkel well.
"The president, who leaves for a three-day visit to Algeria on Thursday, has told ministers that measures to tackle the climate emergency and its consequences as well as those focusing on renewable energies must be a priority this autumn, and he has urged a “general mobilisation” to address it."
Oh, God. So he's even capitulated to the wind & solar scam. Here I thought he had some bit of enlightenment when he stated France would focus on nuclear energy. It appears his chain has been yanked.
Aug 26, 2022·edited Aug 26, 2022Liked by Irina Slav
The middle class has to feel it before anything changes. It doesn't matter that poor people drown financially, since they're not the back-bone of the governing parties in any country.
I honestly don't know if these are Weimar conditions or pre-French Revolution conditions.
I believe there will be protests, but depending on the level of impact re day 2 day life will dictate the volume of protests or outrage. I for one would like for a minimum of roving blackouts, perhaps 1 month in dead of winter no power, so our spoiled populous in the US can feel the pain. We are accustomed ungratefully to lives with luxury; minimal resilience nor resourcefulness and many living in a welfare state supported by corrupt politicians.
I’m stocking up on staples and camping gas cartridges to be ready, although I think Switzerland will fare better than most due to the hydropower and nuclear plants.
That reminds me, I need to bolster my backup coffee supplies...
Yes, stocking up is always a good idea. We all remember the Toilet Paper Crisis of 2020 and things weren't half as bad then. By the way, someone in the UK, I believe, warned about a toilet paper shortage again because of gas prices.
My knowledge is a bit dated, but we did a Pulp and Paper plant tour during my undergraduate ChemE studies and I thought I remember them saying that they get almost all of their energy from the wood. They separate the lignin from the pulp and burn that lignin waste product for the process energy.
So hopefully we can keep the TP on the shelves this time! Of course when everyone is desperate to burn trees this winter the price of wood might skyrocket...
How are things in Luxembourg? Nobody ever writes about the small countries unless, of course, something major happens. I see the country is totally dependent on gas imports, which can't be very good right now.
It’s hard to say. I moved to Lux last Oct from UK and I’m a renter and a big % of community are renters because property is so expensive. Norm for renting is you pay a fixed fee each month and at end of tenancy which could be 2-3 years, you make up any difference with landlord. So it’s not transparent for renters yet. I have a friend who is senior at a big global materials biz here and he said they’re shutting things down because they can’t run intermittently. And he signalled those problems months back. Lux has quite a bit of wind and solar (lots of farms and homes have solar panels), but I’m not close enough to know the % that contributes. Fuel has gone up about 20% and its a bit of a driver nation but public transport is free and quite a good system. So its just that there’s a lot of wealth here so not hurting enough yet. But I suspect if companies have to start layoffs that will wake people up. Food-wise, it is a farming nation….lots of cows/cheese, wine and corn - import a lot of food from France and Belgium but I suspect the weather probs and fertiliser cost increases are going to hurt by next year. So I’m not close enough to the energy stats and grid set up (aside from a big partnership on a pipeline through Belgium) and the local headlines which aren’t alarming but are asking for us to conserve where we can, it’s so far not feeling as apocalyptic as the US and UK talking heads and media claim.
I thought so too and then my husband rained on my hope parade suggesting they were beyond that now, because the younger generations won't protest. I'm putting it down to his excessive pessimism and keeping the hope alive.
But you blaming Renewables is even more misplaced.
The conflict in Ukraine and the "energy crisis" it has caused has more to do with the Petrodollar than it does with wind or solar, and so do the conflicts in Iraq, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Libya, Yemen, etc..
As conflicts spread across Europe and Asia people will ask, how did we get here? It will be an uncomfortable conversation for all.
No it has everything to do with "Renewables" which really means "Wind & Solar". In 1999 Germany was 31% clean, zero emissions Nuclear electricity, 170TWh/yr. Now after having spent over $500B on wind and solar since then they are now at 29% wind + solar, 166TWh/yr. Zero achievement after $500B down the sewer. If Germany has spent $200B on Nuclear power they would now be 100% clean Nuclear electricity. 3X the results at 1/3rd the cost. And now most of Germany's wind & solar will have to be replaced over the next decade. And of course they would now be able to laugh at Putin's natural gas pipeline blackmail.
Interesting, in 1999 Gerhard Schroeder announces all nuclear will be shutdown in Germany by 2020 "replaced by wind & solar". [if you believe that I have 5 bridges to sell you, cheap]. Then just before Schroeder gets booted out of office he signs a $6B contract to build a NG pipeline from Russia to Germany with Gazprom, the Russia NG utility. Plus a $1.7B loan guaranteed by the German gov't. Then shortly after losing the election Schroeder signs on as a chairman with Gazprom at an undisclosed salary. And in 2003 Schroeder quashed an investigation into a company named SPAG in Frankfurt linked to money laundering in several countries run by St. Petersburg's Tambovskaya mafia group with links to Putin, who was on SPAG's advisory board. Schroeder still sits on Gazprom's executive board.
So the reason the German's didn't spend money on nuclear is because they spent all their money on solar and wind? Nuclear was an option in Germany, despite the fact that few other countries were building nuclear besides China, and the bad solar and wind investments were somehow responsible for stopping the nukes and shutting down the gas pipelines?
Germany got played, Europe got played, and Putin has no interest in cutting off his best customer. Who might stand to gain from this? How's the Euro/Petrodollar doing now?
Nuclear has been part of the goal all along. Big money builds nukes, centralized big capital, not like the solar industry which is a small player and a few percentage points of total Western capacity. Even wind is just a few percentage points. Now nuclear will roar back because big money has set it up that way, only you can't see the strategy at play. Remember, Kazakhstan had an attempted coup prior to the Russia invasion. That's where most of the world's uranium comes from. What would have happened had that succeeded? Who might have been behind that? Putin? Greta?
I'm not anti-nuke or anti-oil & gas, and I'm not saying what I want to see happen or why. I'm just saying what is happening and that blaming Renewables is story-line distraction you've been sold.
The most disastrous decision was the closing of the gas pipelines. It was a plan aimed at bringing Europe to its knees and ushering in a new age of "Green baseload" nuclear power. Russia invaded Ukraine but it was European rulers who boycotted and annexed Russian resources, at the urging of their rulers.
The US get 20% of its baseload electricity from nuclear now and our navy runs on it too. Kazataprom is the #1 global supplier and Cameco (Canada) second. Russia was the main enricher but Five Eyes nations are now primed to take on those roles, supply and enrichment (SMRs too). In a 21st Century electric economy, nuclear is the new oil.
Overthrowing Kazakhstan was part of the plan but it failed. Overthrowing Ukraine in 2014 succeed and now Europe is paying the price. The Renewables backlash is a distraction. The carbon tax agenda, the tracking of everything and everybody via Blockchain, and the resurgence of a Western dominated nuclear agenda, are the real stories.
Follow the money, including the decline of the Euro and the ascent of the USD.
Seems like it will be a question of how cold it gets, if they will have digital entertainment and the availability of food. If its only so cold that layers keep you warm while you surf the web on your tablet (assuming you can charge it of course) and can eat without much trouble, I could see the Europeans tolerate the energy crisis. Now if they just can't stay warm, can't enjoy the easy entertainment of the internet or struggle to keep food on the table, that is when things go sideways.
Not in the EU, so my perspective is likely to miss crucial information.
This is a very good point -- it would depend on the degree of discomfort people are forced to endure. Judging by the news, many will have trouble with the last thing: putting food on the table. They already have trouble with it. And if it comes to blackouts on top of inflation the situation might ignite.
If the EU has another “Beast from East” winter, they will have lost their energy gamble and thunder will be heard in the Halls of Brussels.
Irina, western European civilization will likely degrow and devolve some.
Back when I belonged to the Chicago Climate Exchange(2003-2008), I worked with EU group finalizing the EU-ETS; and in fact, I spoke in front of them in Paris in 2009. My topic was about energy efficiency being in their taxonomy.
Once I realized that they weren't going to include industrial energy efficiency (which can be measured and verified in real time), I saw how political their “cap and trade” protocol was more fiction than Wall Street legal. Since then, I have never trusted their ETS’s market numbers.
Given their morally-superior sensibility is still present, I find it easy to empathize with everyone in the EU who aren't responsible for their governance.
That's quite depressing, what you say about the ETS. Sadly, not very surprising. I was just thinking the other day how nobody is talking about prices on the ETS right now, while around this time last year it was a huge topic that even I ranted about.
Luxuriating in my profligate, 'immoral' American life-style - sitting in my central air at a comfortable 21C on a sunny-humid 34C day, but anticipating an inner warmth this winter with a new, but decadent 96% efficiency NG furnace burning abundant NG from the Marcellus shale, I marvel at the perseverance, character, determination and, not least, WEALTH of green energy activists who can afford to leave their undoubtedly productive jobs to spend a week in a tent to prevent European governments from using NG. Praise God for such saints! May they continue as Luddites funded by (fill in billionaire's name). Please keep them in Hamburg where they are indoctrinated and fulfilled.
Dissolute, immoral, and sinful Americans will not freeze this winter, in order that that angelic activists can have SOMETHING about which to protest. It is our purpose in life. It's pleasant to have a purpose.
In general I agree that the US is in a much better situation gas wise, but don’t boast too much yet- NYISO, PJM, NEISO and MISO grids are not in great shape for the winter and ERCOT is only one ice storm away from a catastrophe.
I think we should put the EU greens on exercise bikes for 16 hours a day to generate electricity. We could even measure their carbon and methane emissions in real time!
The USA is in trouble, of course. It has not fully surfaced yet.
Fracking is a continual process. The wells decline quickly, and must be renewed. The QUANTITY of fuel is large but requires drilling-fracking. The federal government, like many foreign governments, is suppressing all investment in fossil fuels. Here, there is a larger private component than elsewhere, so the high prices will stimulate production, even in face of tariffs, taxes, and other trauma imposed by the federal government. ERCOT is a disaster-in-waiting.
No, they won't. They largely stayed home and silent when they were told to be afraid of covid, and they will do the same when they are told to be afraid of putin, and CO2. And covid again, probably
But they weren't cold and hungry then. It might make a difference. Of course, as someone pointed out earlier, the wealthier ones will have to get cold and hungry before something of substance happens. I don't know, myself, I think there are more than enough poor people to topple governments who so obviously do not care about them.
Well, the Germans in particular will certainly take to the streets, but for the wrong reasons. They will actually protest AGAINST energy and fossil fuels. So in short they are in favour of economic collapse, industrial shut-downs, mass unemployment, freezing, empty shelves and starving. Go figure.
Also by having a social security net people are less afraid to eventually lose their job and have a reason to go to the streets, if you can live off another people's money when things get tough.
My sense is deep French consensus is: we hv nothing to do with this crisis caused by the war imposed on Europe by US/Russia conflict. I feel at some stage this will flash out. It’s really an experiment to find about how much are people willing to pay for freedom (quoting Macron).
We'll see before long, I suppose. Macron, Scholz and the rest are very big on words like freedom, solidarity, and unity right now, it smells so fishy it's got gills.
It ain't a US/Russia conflict. It is a Davos Bankster Cult conflict. They are literally in a frenzy trying to break up Russia into a dozen or so Feifdoms which will be forced to join the rest of the World in subservience to the World Dictatorship.
I love the Europeans having lived in Germany for five years, they do protest. In America only for dead drug dealers do we protest, then set fire to businesses and harass certain races.
I think the EU will cave and go ahead and buy Russian resources. Zelensky will be told behind closed doors to give up or die. I just do not understand how politicians can sell their populace down the river.
This would be disastrous for their moral superiors' reputation. Besides, they are already buying Russian resources. Embargo on oil only comes into effect later this year and they're stocking up ahead of it. Gas is a bit different, though.
The EU is still way behind on its Gas requirements as well. I do know about when the cut offs for purchase of Russian resources are. I think this will be carried to the brink Zelensky will be given and ultimatum from the West to surrender. Still, I am not sure if Russia will ever trust the West again? Would you?
Irina I really dislike typing this having served in two wars and taking a battalion to Iraq. It is sad that I trust Putin's word over my own governments current spin. I could see from the start Russia was kicking the Ukraine's butt. The convoys on the side of the road near Kiev told me they were doing a feint and Russian troops had nothing to fear from the uke armed forces, otherwise they would be dispersing their convoys in the woods. Kiev could not mount an attack on these assets.
I am so sick of the lies. You can bet those non-elected political officials are not going to suffer. Neither will my president or the other political critters.
You're not the only one who's sick of the lies, not just about the Ukraine war. Yet accountability died in 2008 and it seems to have stayed dead much as I'd like to see it return to life.
Methinks they'll be hitting the forests more than the streets to protest. Come winter, they'll be cutting down the forests to get some good wood fuel to stay warm!!!
The Europeans voted for the idiots that are causing their problems, just like we Americans get what we voted for. Will the Europeans take to the streets? Probably more inclined to than Americans are.
This is a painful truth but you know what annoys the hell out of me? In the last elections down here, the voter turnout was about 30%. Of that 30%, a little over 50% voted for the government that we got in November, that plunged us into billions of new debt, and wreaked havoc on everything they got their hands on before they were kicked out 6 months later. A government of about 15% of the population just because the great majority can't be bothered to get up and go vote because they've resigned themselves to the perception that all governments are ultimately the same.
The working class will, and the ones who understand what's up. But surely not the upper, middle class who is busy disecting existentialism, non binary cultural distraction wars. They're minds are already weary with problems, can't you see?
People can only bear so much. The transition from covid to energy shortages to severe inflation has forced people to bear incredible stress and economic burden for almost 3 years. If no one could point to policy failures (e.g. covid lockdowns, eschewing energy security in favor of climate fears, inflationary monetary policy, proactive diplomacy with Russia, etc.), then there would be no need for protests. But as it stands, a lot of people believe that our leaders have made compounding errors in government responses to these events since 2019. Politicians should brace for more than just peaceful protests.
After that clampdown on the truckers the Trudeau government has exposed itself as a worryingly authoritarian one. Are Canadians too nice to do something about it or are they waiting for the next elections?
The protests didn’t stop Trudeau, it was $$$ fleeing Canadian banks that caused the zero reserve status banks to panic and tell Trudeau to stop.
In days, it was stopped.
Decades ago, the French in Quebec had enough with gov BS so one day about 30% of doctors and nurses stopped going to work, within a few days it grew to about 90%. This wasn’t just a protest, it was lawful action because the gov cannot force anyone to go to work. The very next day the gov BS was completely reversed and leaders resigned.
In days, it was stopped.
This winter, when the grind starts to squeeze blood, the people might forget about useless protests and start thinking carefully about what lawful options they have to effect change.
What I'm seeing is the fourth "horseman" of the Apocalypse, i.e., Revelation 6.
That fourth horseman is "(pale) green" (chloros, in the Greek, like chlorine gas which is pale green).
When he broke the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth living being say, “Go!” I looked, and there in front of me was a pallid, sickly-looking [pale green] horse. Its rider’s name was Death, and Sh’ol [the Grave] followed behind him. They were given authority to kill one-quarter of the world by war, by famine, by plagues and with the wild animals of the earth.
- Revelation 6 (CJB)
Revelation 6 also talks about significant inflation in food prices:
5 When he broke the third seal, I heard the third living being say, “Go!” I looked, and there in front of me was a black horse, and its rider held in his hand a pair of scales. 6 Then I heard what sounded like a voice from among the four living beings say, “Two pounds of wheat for a day’s wages! Six pounds of barley for the same price! But don’t damage the oil or the wine!”
- Revelation 6 (CJB)
An entire day's wages just to pay for 2 lbs / ~1 kg of wheat?
That's what human government devolves into. And this is happening world-wide now.
Oddly enough, I did, a few weeks ago. I don't hold religious beliefs but I do appreciate the imagery and the style of Revelations, and, like many, I suppose, I couldn't not see the parallels with Covid, inflation, energy and looming food shortages.
The pictures mentioned in Revelation, like Jesus's parables, symbolize real people/government, things, and events. A very good example is the colours of the four horsemen of the Apocalypse (Revelation 6): white, red, black, and green.
The colours of Islam? White, red, black, and green. Look at the Palestinian flag, Iraq's flag, Kuwait, Jordan, Libya, Sudan, Syria, UAE. Same colours.
In fact, green in Islam is the colour of paradise, ironically enough.
The red horseman:
"Another horse went out, a red one; and its rider was given the power to take peace away from the earth and make people slaughter each other. He was given a great sword."
It is pure insanity that Western and European nations would destroy there own Economies and their own people over an Elite induced conspiracy.Its not about Climate anything it's about Power and Control in my humble view.
Very scary what is currently going on in European energy markets. Gas prices of $500 barrel oil equivalent. Electricity prices $1000 per mwH. You cannot run an advanced society on these type of prices.
I so hope they will, the farmers especially in Holland know this is do or die. In France they are sick to death of Macron and happily protest on a dime. German and Italian farmers have protested in solidarity with Holland, so think of the EU as pots on the boil, and I suspect the pot lids will be flying fast and far once October hits.
In Italy we have elections come September 25 so there's more focus on that but with particular attention to the energy crisis.
The government of Mario Dragi has been talking of adopting government relief measures especially as it concerns gas and electricity. Companies, hotels, SMEs you name it, have seen a sharp increases in their electricity bill of up to 350%, forcing some of them to close shop.
While the government is in hustle mode to ensure citizens don't panic, the likelihood of protest happening is slim.
"Europe’s Energy Crisis Has Ended Its Era Of Abundance" @Oilprice
This article is a pure testimony of what rejection of Reality looks like... Not a single reference to the actual cause of the energy crisis in Europe is written in that piece of work!
Concerning the "why" you're the only one that can answer that.
But if you write an article talking about the "Europe's Energy Crisis" without a single reference to what caused/is causing the so called "crisis" - the self-initiative sanctions on energy products - it seems that you don't want to address it like it really is... and so we reach the "why".
Oh, I see. This is the first of my Oilprice stories you've ever read and you have expected me to cram it full of everything I've written about Europe and energy since about last September. Unfortunately, this is not how writing works -- by anticipating and addressing the individual expectations of every reader. Feel free to seek assistance on that from Google's search engine because saying that I haven't mentioned the causes of the crisis is the same as saying I don't really write about energy at all. Or, if you prefer to just troll me for the fun of it, go ahead, of course. It's a free space.
Nope... Not the 1st one, unfortunately, I can say today.
But that's the usual reply of those that don't have the willingness to stand up for their own personal weakness and/or meekness.
I mean you even blame the weather on this one "Drought Is Driving European Energy Markets Toward Disaster" without another single reference to the actual cause (sanctions) of the energy "crisis" in Europe.
The kids will probably glue themselves to something somewhere.
As long as they use non-oil based glue and it's somewhere warm.
Maybe they would relax if they huffed some of it...
Oh it’s coming! People will likely be cold and hungry this winter in Europe. From Finland to Switzerland. The question is, will it be a wake-up call for the dereliction of woke politicians (“How Dare You”) for secure and stable energy or will it lead to more cries of this is why we need to eliminate fossil fuels and nuclear. I am worried about the later. History will not treat Angela Merkel well.
Macron just prioritised renewables over affordable energy and I admit I can't wait to see people's reaction to that.
Did he?!? Do you have a link?
Yes, he did, here's a translation:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/24/macron-warns-of-end-of-abundance-as-france-faces-difficult-winter
Here's the bit about renewables:
"The president, who leaves for a three-day visit to Algeria on Thursday, has told ministers that measures to tackle the climate emergency and its consequences as well as those focusing on renewable energies must be a priority this autumn, and he has urged a “general mobilisation” to address it."
Oh, God. So he's even capitulated to the wind & solar scam. Here I thought he had some bit of enlightenment when he stated France would focus on nuclear energy. It appears his chain has been yanked.
It was a bit shocking to see, yes.
The middle class has to feel it before anything changes. It doesn't matter that poor people drown financially, since they're not the back-bone of the governing parties in any country.
I honestly don't know if these are Weimar conditions or pre-French Revolution conditions.
Neither sounds particularly optimistic.
Davos would be an appropriate venue for the protests.
It's quite small as places go, though.
There is nothing exciting there when WEF isn’t happening. It is just a cute small skiing town in Graubünden after the globalists leave.
I believe there will be protests, but depending on the level of impact re day 2 day life will dictate the volume of protests or outrage. I for one would like for a minimum of roving blackouts, perhaps 1 month in dead of winter no power, so our spoiled populous in the US can feel the pain. We are accustomed ungratefully to lives with luxury; minimal resilience nor resourcefulness and many living in a welfare state supported by corrupt politicians.
Yes.
I’m stocking up on staples and camping gas cartridges to be ready, although I think Switzerland will fare better than most due to the hydropower and nuclear plants.
That reminds me, I need to bolster my backup coffee supplies...
Yes, stocking up is always a good idea. We all remember the Toilet Paper Crisis of 2020 and things weren't half as bad then. By the way, someone in the UK, I believe, warned about a toilet paper shortage again because of gas prices.
My knowledge is a bit dated, but we did a Pulp and Paper plant tour during my undergraduate ChemE studies and I thought I remember them saying that they get almost all of their energy from the wood. They separate the lignin from the pulp and burn that lignin waste product for the process energy.
So hopefully we can keep the TP on the shelves this time! Of course when everyone is desperate to burn trees this winter the price of wood might skyrocket...
Not starting here in Luxembourg as yet, but I could foresee it and I think that's keeping the politicians up at night.
How are things in Luxembourg? Nobody ever writes about the small countries unless, of course, something major happens. I see the country is totally dependent on gas imports, which can't be very good right now.
It’s hard to say. I moved to Lux last Oct from UK and I’m a renter and a big % of community are renters because property is so expensive. Norm for renting is you pay a fixed fee each month and at end of tenancy which could be 2-3 years, you make up any difference with landlord. So it’s not transparent for renters yet. I have a friend who is senior at a big global materials biz here and he said they’re shutting things down because they can’t run intermittently. And he signalled those problems months back. Lux has quite a bit of wind and solar (lots of farms and homes have solar panels), but I’m not close enough to know the % that contributes. Fuel has gone up about 20% and its a bit of a driver nation but public transport is free and quite a good system. So its just that there’s a lot of wealth here so not hurting enough yet. But I suspect if companies have to start layoffs that will wake people up. Food-wise, it is a farming nation….lots of cows/cheese, wine and corn - import a lot of food from France and Belgium but I suspect the weather probs and fertiliser cost increases are going to hurt by next year. So I’m not close enough to the energy stats and grid set up (aside from a big partnership on a pipeline through Belgium) and the local headlines which aren’t alarming but are asking for us to conserve where we can, it’s so far not feeling as apocalyptic as the US and UK talking heads and media claim.
Thanks, this is very informative. I suppose wealthier nations won't feel as much of a pinch or at least not as soon, it makes sense.
Thought this might be of interest https://twitter.com/DanielKral1/status/1563083157679009792?s=20&t=D80N5c71A66zvnMxJCgiyg
and this which is the local Luxembourg paper
https://delano.lu/article/luxembourg-eu-gas-consumption-?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Delano%20noon%20briefing%2029082022&utm_content=Delano%20noon%20briefing%2029082022+CID_ce8746e9fb211cbc3eec44c5cfcd9ff4&utm_source=Newsletter&utm_term=Luxembourg%20%20EU%20gas%20consumption%20down%20by%20low%20double%20digits
I think we can certainly rely on the French to start things in earnest. Outside of the Netherlands, of course. :)
I thought so too and then my husband rained on my hope parade suggesting they were beyond that now, because the younger generations won't protest. I'm putting it down to his excessive pessimism and keeping the hope alive.
When the youth are cold, hungry, and broke, they will protest. Apathy is only an option when your comfortable.
They'll probably blame fossil fuels and I deeply resent myself having to suggest this.
But you blaming Renewables is even more misplaced.
The conflict in Ukraine and the "energy crisis" it has caused has more to do with the Petrodollar than it does with wind or solar, and so do the conflicts in Iraq, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Libya, Yemen, etc..
As conflicts spread across Europe and Asia people will ask, how did we get here? It will be an uncomfortable conversation for all.
No it has everything to do with "Renewables" which really means "Wind & Solar". In 1999 Germany was 31% clean, zero emissions Nuclear electricity, 170TWh/yr. Now after having spent over $500B on wind and solar since then they are now at 29% wind + solar, 166TWh/yr. Zero achievement after $500B down the sewer. If Germany has spent $200B on Nuclear power they would now be 100% clean Nuclear electricity. 3X the results at 1/3rd the cost. And now most of Germany's wind & solar will have to be replaced over the next decade. And of course they would now be able to laugh at Putin's natural gas pipeline blackmail.
Interesting, in 1999 Gerhard Schroeder announces all nuclear will be shutdown in Germany by 2020 "replaced by wind & solar". [if you believe that I have 5 bridges to sell you, cheap]. Then just before Schroeder gets booted out of office he signs a $6B contract to build a NG pipeline from Russia to Germany with Gazprom, the Russia NG utility. Plus a $1.7B loan guaranteed by the German gov't. Then shortly after losing the election Schroeder signs on as a chairman with Gazprom at an undisclosed salary. And in 2003 Schroeder quashed an investigation into a company named SPAG in Frankfurt linked to money laundering in several countries run by St. Petersburg's Tambovskaya mafia group with links to Putin, who was on SPAG's advisory board. Schroeder still sits on Gazprom's executive board.
So the reason the German's didn't spend money on nuclear is because they spent all their money on solar and wind? Nuclear was an option in Germany, despite the fact that few other countries were building nuclear besides China, and the bad solar and wind investments were somehow responsible for stopping the nukes and shutting down the gas pipelines?
Germany got played, Europe got played, and Putin has no interest in cutting off his best customer. Who might stand to gain from this? How's the Euro/Petrodollar doing now?
Nuclear has been part of the goal all along. Big money builds nukes, centralized big capital, not like the solar industry which is a small player and a few percentage points of total Western capacity. Even wind is just a few percentage points. Now nuclear will roar back because big money has set it up that way, only you can't see the strategy at play. Remember, Kazakhstan had an attempted coup prior to the Russia invasion. That's where most of the world's uranium comes from. What would have happened had that succeeded? Who might have been behind that? Putin? Greta?
I'm not anti-nuke or anti-oil & gas, and I'm not saying what I want to see happen or why. I'm just saying what is happening and that blaming Renewables is story-line distraction you've been sold.
I don't blame energy resources. I blame decision-makers for making disastrous decisions.
The most disastrous decision was the closing of the gas pipelines. It was a plan aimed at bringing Europe to its knees and ushering in a new age of "Green baseload" nuclear power. Russia invaded Ukraine but it was European rulers who boycotted and annexed Russian resources, at the urging of their rulers.
The US get 20% of its baseload electricity from nuclear now and our navy runs on it too. Kazataprom is the #1 global supplier and Cameco (Canada) second. Russia was the main enricher but Five Eyes nations are now primed to take on those roles, supply and enrichment (SMRs too). In a 21st Century electric economy, nuclear is the new oil.
Overthrowing Kazakhstan was part of the plan but it failed. Overthrowing Ukraine in 2014 succeed and now Europe is paying the price. The Renewables backlash is a distraction. The carbon tax agenda, the tracking of everything and everybody via Blockchain, and the resurgence of a Western dominated nuclear agenda, are the real stories.
Follow the money, including the decline of the Euro and the ascent of the USD.
Liz T will offer us all some cake…..
You've been having some extra bad luck with your leaders, I'm very sorry to see it.
Seems like it will be a question of how cold it gets, if they will have digital entertainment and the availability of food. If its only so cold that layers keep you warm while you surf the web on your tablet (assuming you can charge it of course) and can eat without much trouble, I could see the Europeans tolerate the energy crisis. Now if they just can't stay warm, can't enjoy the easy entertainment of the internet or struggle to keep food on the table, that is when things go sideways.
Not in the EU, so my perspective is likely to miss crucial information.
This is a very good point -- it would depend on the degree of discomfort people are forced to endure. Judging by the news, many will have trouble with the last thing: putting food on the table. They already have trouble with it. And if it comes to blackouts on top of inflation the situation might ignite.
If the EU has another “Beast from East” winter, they will have lost their energy gamble and thunder will be heard in the Halls of Brussels.
Irina, western European civilization will likely degrow and devolve some.
Back when I belonged to the Chicago Climate Exchange(2003-2008), I worked with EU group finalizing the EU-ETS; and in fact, I spoke in front of them in Paris in 2009. My topic was about energy efficiency being in their taxonomy.
Once I realized that they weren't going to include industrial energy efficiency (which can be measured and verified in real time), I saw how political their “cap and trade” protocol was more fiction than Wall Street legal. Since then, I have never trusted their ETS’s market numbers.
Given their morally-superior sensibility is still present, I find it easy to empathize with everyone in the EU who aren't responsible for their governance.
It's good to have you jump right into Substack.
That's quite depressing, what you say about the ETS. Sadly, not very surprising. I was just thinking the other day how nobody is talking about prices on the ETS right now, while around this time last year it was a huge topic that even I ranted about.
Luxuriating in my profligate, 'immoral' American life-style - sitting in my central air at a comfortable 21C on a sunny-humid 34C day, but anticipating an inner warmth this winter with a new, but decadent 96% efficiency NG furnace burning abundant NG from the Marcellus shale, I marvel at the perseverance, character, determination and, not least, WEALTH of green energy activists who can afford to leave their undoubtedly productive jobs to spend a week in a tent to prevent European governments from using NG. Praise God for such saints! May they continue as Luddites funded by (fill in billionaire's name). Please keep them in Hamburg where they are indoctrinated and fulfilled.
Dissolute, immoral, and sinful Americans will not freeze this winter, in order that that angelic activists can have SOMETHING about which to protest. It is our purpose in life. It's pleasant to have a purpose.
In general I agree that the US is in a much better situation gas wise, but don’t boast too much yet- NYISO, PJM, NEISO and MISO grids are not in great shape for the winter and ERCOT is only one ice storm away from a catastrophe.
I think we should put the EU greens on exercise bikes for 16 hours a day to generate electricity. We could even measure their carbon and methane emissions in real time!
The USA is in trouble, of course. It has not fully surfaced yet.
Fracking is a continual process. The wells decline quickly, and must be renewed. The QUANTITY of fuel is large but requires drilling-fracking. The federal government, like many foreign governments, is suppressing all investment in fossil fuels. Here, there is a larger private component than elsewhere, so the high prices will stimulate production, even in face of tariffs, taxes, and other trauma imposed by the federal government. ERCOT is a disaster-in-waiting.
Yes and it is curious how many Republican states and RINO politicians are all fully on board with the Wind & Solar scam. Even Louisiana just recently.
In a word: MONEY
No, they won't. They largely stayed home and silent when they were told to be afraid of covid, and they will do the same when they are told to be afraid of putin, and CO2. And covid again, probably
But they weren't cold and hungry then. It might make a difference. Of course, as someone pointed out earlier, the wealthier ones will have to get cold and hungry before something of substance happens. I don't know, myself, I think there are more than enough poor people to topple governments who so obviously do not care about them.
Well, the Germans in particular will certainly take to the streets, but for the wrong reasons. They will actually protest AGAINST energy and fossil fuels. So in short they are in favour of economic collapse, industrial shut-downs, mass unemployment, freezing, empty shelves and starving. Go figure.
It is staggering what indoctrination can achieve in a few short decades.
It's not just indoctrination.
Also by having a social security net people are less afraid to eventually lose their job and have a reason to go to the streets, if you can live off another people's money when things get tough.
Good point. But when the net starts fraying things change very quickly.
My sense is deep French consensus is: we hv nothing to do with this crisis caused by the war imposed on Europe by US/Russia conflict. I feel at some stage this will flash out. It’s really an experiment to find about how much are people willing to pay for freedom (quoting Macron).
We'll see before long, I suppose. Macron, Scholz and the rest are very big on words like freedom, solidarity, and unity right now, it smells so fishy it's got gills.
It ain't a US/Russia conflict. It is a Davos Bankster Cult conflict. They are literally in a frenzy trying to break up Russia into a dozen or so Feifdoms which will be forced to join the rest of the World in subservience to the World Dictatorship.
They should've studied some history but no one ever does, because repeating past mistakes is so much more fun.
I love the Europeans having lived in Germany for five years, they do protest. In America only for dead drug dealers do we protest, then set fire to businesses and harass certain races.
I think the EU will cave and go ahead and buy Russian resources. Zelensky will be told behind closed doors to give up or die. I just do not understand how politicians can sell their populace down the river.
This would be disastrous for their moral superiors' reputation. Besides, they are already buying Russian resources. Embargo on oil only comes into effect later this year and they're stocking up ahead of it. Gas is a bit different, though.
The EU is still way behind on its Gas requirements as well. I do know about when the cut offs for purchase of Russian resources are. I think this will be carried to the brink Zelensky will be given and ultimatum from the West to surrender. Still, I am not sure if Russia will ever trust the West again? Would you?
No one would, me included. The problem is how they'd justify the billions poured into the Ukrainian government -- "We tried" might not cut it.
Irina I really dislike typing this having served in two wars and taking a battalion to Iraq. It is sad that I trust Putin's word over my own governments current spin. I could see from the start Russia was kicking the Ukraine's butt. The convoys on the side of the road near Kiev told me they were doing a feint and Russian troops had nothing to fear from the uke armed forces, otherwise they would be dispersing their convoys in the woods. Kiev could not mount an attack on these assets.
I am so sick of the lies. You can bet those non-elected political officials are not going to suffer. Neither will my president or the other political critters.
You're not the only one who's sick of the lies, not just about the Ukraine war. Yet accountability died in 2008 and it seems to have stayed dead much as I'd like to see it return to life.
Methinks they'll be hitting the forests more than the streets to protest. Come winter, they'll be cutting down the forests to get some good wood fuel to stay warm!!!
The Europeans voted for the idiots that are causing their problems, just like we Americans get what we voted for. Will the Europeans take to the streets? Probably more inclined to than Americans are.
This is a painful truth but you know what annoys the hell out of me? In the last elections down here, the voter turnout was about 30%. Of that 30%, a little over 50% voted for the government that we got in November, that plunged us into billions of new debt, and wreaked havoc on everything they got their hands on before they were kicked out 6 months later. A government of about 15% of the population just because the great majority can't be bothered to get up and go vote because they've resigned themselves to the perception that all governments are ultimately the same.
The working class will, and the ones who understand what's up. But surely not the upper, middle class who is busy disecting existentialism, non binary cultural distraction wars. They're minds are already weary with problems, can't you see?
I certainly got weary just reading this. :D The rich people's burden, I presume.
People can only bear so much. The transition from covid to energy shortages to severe inflation has forced people to bear incredible stress and economic burden for almost 3 years. If no one could point to policy failures (e.g. covid lockdowns, eschewing energy security in favor of climate fears, inflationary monetary policy, proactive diplomacy with Russia, etc.), then there would be no need for protests. But as it stands, a lot of people believe that our leaders have made compounding errors in government responses to these events since 2019. Politicians should brace for more than just peaceful protests.
Trudeau said to Germany sorry we can’t help you because we are busy destroying our own fossil fuel industry.
Have you heard of any Canadians especially those in oil and gas protesting?
Did that change Trudeau’s mind?
TrueDoo doesn't have a mind. He might as well be a Avator for Davos, just mouthing their orders.
After that clampdown on the truckers the Trudeau government has exposed itself as a worryingly authoritarian one. Are Canadians too nice to do something about it or are they waiting for the next elections?
The protests didn’t stop Trudeau, it was $$$ fleeing Canadian banks that caused the zero reserve status banks to panic and tell Trudeau to stop.
In days, it was stopped.
Decades ago, the French in Quebec had enough with gov BS so one day about 30% of doctors and nurses stopped going to work, within a few days it grew to about 90%. This wasn’t just a protest, it was lawful action because the gov cannot force anyone to go to work. The very next day the gov BS was completely reversed and leaders resigned.
In days, it was stopped.
This winter, when the grind starts to squeeze blood, the people might forget about useless protests and start thinking carefully about what lawful options they have to effect change.
Thinking is always a good start.
We're All Sri Lankan Farmers Now.
https://corbettreport.substack.com/p/were-all-sri-lankan-farmers-now
What I'm seeing is the fourth "horseman" of the Apocalypse, i.e., Revelation 6.
That fourth horseman is "(pale) green" (chloros, in the Greek, like chlorine gas which is pale green).
When he broke the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth living being say, “Go!” I looked, and there in front of me was a pallid, sickly-looking [pale green] horse. Its rider’s name was Death, and Sh’ol [the Grave] followed behind him. They were given authority to kill one-quarter of the world by war, by famine, by plagues and with the wild animals of the earth.
- Revelation 6 (CJB)
Revelation 6 also talks about significant inflation in food prices:
5 When he broke the third seal, I heard the third living being say, “Go!” I looked, and there in front of me was a black horse, and its rider held in his hand a pair of scales. 6 Then I heard what sounded like a voice from among the four living beings say, “Two pounds of wheat for a day’s wages! Six pounds of barley for the same price! But don’t damage the oil or the wine!”
- Revelation 6 (CJB)
An entire day's wages just to pay for 2 lbs / ~1 kg of wheat?
That's what human government devolves into. And this is happening world-wide now.
The good news? Read the rest of Revelation.
Oddly enough, I did, a few weeks ago. I don't hold religious beliefs but I do appreciate the imagery and the style of Revelations, and, like many, I suppose, I couldn't not see the parallels with Covid, inflation, energy and looming food shortages.
The pictures mentioned in Revelation, like Jesus's parables, symbolize real people/government, things, and events. A very good example is the colours of the four horsemen of the Apocalypse (Revelation 6): white, red, black, and green.
The colours of Islam? White, red, black, and green. Look at the Palestinian flag, Iraq's flag, Kuwait, Jordan, Libya, Sudan, Syria, UAE. Same colours.
In fact, green in Islam is the colour of paradise, ironically enough.
The red horseman:
"Another horse went out, a red one; and its rider was given the power to take peace away from the earth and make people slaughter each other. He was given a great sword."
That great sword I see as a scimitar.
I could go on but I suspect you get the gist.
It is pure insanity that Western and European nations would destroy there own Economies and their own people over an Elite induced conspiracy.Its not about Climate anything it's about Power and Control in my humble view.
Very scary what is currently going on in European energy markets. Gas prices of $500 barrel oil equivalent. Electricity prices $1000 per mwH. You cannot run an advanced society on these type of prices.
It’ was not that difficult to foresee. As well as in food markets.
apparently western leadership decided to pay that price on behalf of people.
It would br a huge blow if that leadership is unprepared for some unrest.
Food prices are next with the shut down of almost every fertiliser plant in Europe currently occuring
Oh, I'm sure they are preparing.
En France, absoulement! C’est ile sporte nationale. Ask the yellow vests. In the USA, it’s so 1968....
That's uncanny, I also call it their national sport. Good for them.
I head to Berlin next week to visit a friend, we will take his Porsche and head to Portugal. Just hope the protesters don't block the autobahns 🙂
Have a great trip, which you will, of course, with a Porsche.😎
Thanks Irina, look forward as always to reading more of your excellent articles
I so hope they will, the farmers especially in Holland know this is do or die. In France they are sick to death of Macron and happily protest on a dime. German and Italian farmers have protested in solidarity with Holland, so think of the EU as pots on the boil, and I suspect the pot lids will be flying fast and far once October hits.
In Italy we have elections come September 25 so there's more focus on that but with particular attention to the energy crisis.
The government of Mario Dragi has been talking of adopting government relief measures especially as it concerns gas and electricity. Companies, hotels, SMEs you name it, have seen a sharp increases in their electricity bill of up to 350%, forcing some of them to close shop.
While the government is in hustle mode to ensure citizens don't panic, the likelihood of protest happening is slim.
The problems will begin when governments run out of money to use to cover the price increases, not just in Italy.
True, I see the Germans the likeliest to take to the streets first.
we are visiting london and paris in september, hopefully street riots will be afterwards.
Have a great time!
I hope they happen right when you're there. They are ultra funny events. Perfect entertainment while on visiting!
True - but we missed them by a week - I think they are burning their utilities bills (as a protest, not for fuel). Maybe next time.
"Europe’s Energy Crisis Has Ended Its Era Of Abundance" @Oilprice
This article is a pure testimony of what rejection of Reality looks like... Not a single reference to the actual cause of the energy crisis in Europe is written in that piece of work!
Amazing.
Do you mean I'm rejecting reality with this article because... why?
Concerning the "why" you're the only one that can answer that.
But if you write an article talking about the "Europe's Energy Crisis" without a single reference to what caused/is causing the so called "crisis" - the self-initiative sanctions on energy products - it seems that you don't want to address it like it really is... and so we reach the "why".
Oh, I see. This is the first of my Oilprice stories you've ever read and you have expected me to cram it full of everything I've written about Europe and energy since about last September. Unfortunately, this is not how writing works -- by anticipating and addressing the individual expectations of every reader. Feel free to seek assistance on that from Google's search engine because saying that I haven't mentioned the causes of the crisis is the same as saying I don't really write about energy at all. Or, if you prefer to just troll me for the fun of it, go ahead, of course. It's a free space.
Nope... Not the 1st one, unfortunately, I can say today.
But that's the usual reply of those that don't have the willingness to stand up for their own personal weakness and/or meekness.
I mean you even blame the weather on this one "Drought Is Driving European Energy Markets Toward Disaster" without another single reference to the actual cause (sanctions) of the energy "crisis" in Europe.
All right, I must admit this is some quality trolling. Thank you, I'm flattered.