Unless you’ve already done the smart thing and retired to the woods, you’ve probably heard the news that the European Union has struck a deal with the United States to considerably boost its intake of American LNG. Well, when I say considerably, I mean an additional 15 billion cu m this year, to grow to 50 billion cu m annually by 2030. Just for context, Gazprom’s exports to Germany last year hit a record high of 59 billion cu m.
Irina, as always great points. Just because Biden wants more LNG, does not mean that it will happen. You bring up great points about the regulators and capital.
Brilliant summary! Brief, exhaustive, simply put and extremely intelligible. Just what's needed. Would you terribly mind if I use parts of your text in my discussion with "down with Russian gas" fanatics?
One part missing from your account is the role of unfounded fears in Europe (flamed by Russian operatives) that kept countries from fracking for natural gas and continue to cause countries to shut down perfectly good/safe nuclear plants. A good source of information in this area is Mark Nelson of Radiant Energy Group on Twitter. Here's a recent sample:
Mark Nelson
@energybants
GERMAN MINISTERS PUSH QATARI GAS WHILE LYING ABOUT ENERGY
Yesterday ministries controlled by the Green party double down on their Big Lie: that extending their biggest, cheapest carbon-free power plants can't help with energy.
False: it's worth *65 LNG supertankers* every year
Mark Nelson
@energybants
Numbers:
Six reactors, 60 TWh per year. Would take 100 TWh of natural gas heat to replace this electricity, unless done entirely with coal (but then coal elec couldn't replace gas).
100TWh = 17,900,000m3 LNG
266,000m3 = capacity of 1 Qatari "Qmax" LNG tanker
Has the EU ever entertained the thought of reopening their OWN natgas fields and using the most up-to-date fracking technologies to produce their OWN natgas? Instead of importing natgas produced in the US using the most up-to-date fracking technology?
As the US opens export terminals and exports increase the US natural gas market will become more linked to the international market. In other words, this will cause USA natural gas prices to rise.
How high? Beats me and it depends a lot on how fast and how far the USA takes exports.
All those places which eschewed nuclear as too expensive will find that the "cheap" gas which makes wind feasible is not so cheap any more.
So electricity in the USA will become more expensive.
Sigh.
Rod Adams predicted this several years ago. Not these world events, but the general notion of expanding USA natural gas exports and how it would affect USA pricing and electricity.
Simply restarting recently (and unnecessarily) shutdown reactors could make a big dent in Russian gas imports:
Rauli Partanen Retweeted
Mathijs Beckers
@thiesbeckers
If we reverse the recent switching off of #nuclear reactors in the Germany and Sweden (4058MW in Ger, 900MW in Swe) we could stop the import of 7.5 BCM gas from Russia per year... That's between 3.5 & 7% of all gas we import from them.
Easier than all the other shit we're trying
Quote Tweet
Rauli Partanen
@Kaikenhuippu
· 9h
Dear #Sweden,
I hear you could restart Ringhals-1 pretty much right away. That would help us stop funding the bombs and missiles killing Ukrainian civilians and destroying their cities.
Irina, as always great points. Just because Biden wants more LNG, does not mean that it will happen. You bring up great points about the regulators and capital.
I was wondering how the US an EU could make the natural gas supply/purchase commitment deal. Now I know.
Tragically funny
Brilliant summary! Brief, exhaustive, simply put and extremely intelligible. Just what's needed. Would you terribly mind if I use parts of your text in my discussion with "down with Russian gas" fanatics?
One part missing from your account is the role of unfounded fears in Europe (flamed by Russian operatives) that kept countries from fracking for natural gas and continue to cause countries to shut down perfectly good/safe nuclear plants. A good source of information in this area is Mark Nelson of Radiant Energy Group on Twitter. Here's a recent sample:
Mark Nelson
@energybants
GERMAN MINISTERS PUSH QATARI GAS WHILE LYING ABOUT ENERGY
Yesterday ministries controlled by the Green party double down on their Big Lie: that extending their biggest, cheapest carbon-free power plants can't help with energy.
False: it's worth *65 LNG supertankers* every year
Mark Nelson
@energybants
Numbers:
Six reactors, 60 TWh per year. Would take 100 TWh of natural gas heat to replace this electricity, unless done entirely with coal (but then coal elec couldn't replace gas).
100TWh = 17,900,000m3 LNG
266,000m3 = capacity of 1 Qatari "Qmax" LNG tanker
67 Supertankers
Has the EU ever entertained the thought of reopening their OWN natgas fields and using the most up-to-date fracking technologies to produce their OWN natgas? Instead of importing natgas produced in the US using the most up-to-date fracking technology?
As the US opens export terminals and exports increase the US natural gas market will become more linked to the international market. In other words, this will cause USA natural gas prices to rise.
How high? Beats me and it depends a lot on how fast and how far the USA takes exports.
All those places which eschewed nuclear as too expensive will find that the "cheap" gas which makes wind feasible is not so cheap any more.
So electricity in the USA will become more expensive.
Sigh.
Rod Adams predicted this several years ago. Not these world events, but the general notion of expanding USA natural gas exports and how it would affect USA pricing and electricity.
Simply restarting recently (and unnecessarily) shutdown reactors could make a big dent in Russian gas imports:
Rauli Partanen Retweeted
Mathijs Beckers
@thiesbeckers
If we reverse the recent switching off of #nuclear reactors in the Germany and Sweden (4058MW in Ger, 900MW in Swe) we could stop the import of 7.5 BCM gas from Russia per year... That's between 3.5 & 7% of all gas we import from them.
Easier than all the other shit we're trying
Quote Tweet
Rauli Partanen
@Kaikenhuippu
· 9h
Dear #Sweden,
I hear you could restart Ringhals-1 pretty much right away. That would help us stop funding the bombs and missiles killing Ukrainian civilians and destroying their cities.
Surely you could do as much?
#Switchoffputin
Paying attention to a Scandinavian teenager who emotes and slings vapid rhetoric about 'climate' is never a good start.
The chickens have come home to roost.