It’s official: Gazprom halted gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria after they refused to pay for these deliveries in the Russian currency. Naturally, the EU is calling this weaponisation of energy, blackmail and every other bad word. Naturally, the EU expected it could do absolutely anything to Russia and Russian assets abroad without risking a response. Naturally, it was wrong. And that’s not even the funniest part.
Good write up, Irina. I sometimes wonder if there is a disease that comes with being European. The last 20 years has been a disaster that hasn't completely unfolded yet. As you noted in this report, the world is getting ready to learn the importance of the Haber-Bosch process for fixing N2. So now in addition to intermittent or unaffordable power there are going to be hungry bellies, and not just in Africa. And what is Europe's response to this? Doubling down on green energy. How much idiocy does it take before people rise up? I am not pointing fingers. We in the U.S. are traveling break-neck down the same path. I wish the best for you and Bulgaria. Keep up the good work. Cheers
Thank you, Dave! I think it's not about being European generally, rather with being European, especially Western European right now. They never had totalitarianism. So many years of growing comfort leads to complacency and complacency leads to made-up problems because that's how our brains operate, apparently. Made-up problems lead to real problems, complacency ends, and so on and so forth. How long before people have had enough is something we might see as soon as this year.
Fair point regarding complacency. We in the U.S. have never known any deprivation of any kind for the last 75 years, certainly since WWII. A more spoiled population doesn't exist of planet earth. The wake up call in the U.S. isn't being heard. I will have an article on OilPrice later today that discusses structural problems in our energy picture. Bottom line, people who think we can seriously ramp up gas production are in for a rude shock. Keep up your fine output. I always look forward to your commentary. Cheers
Two things. One, everyone in the US knows that the President has a switch on the Resolute Desk that turns energy availability up and down, e.g., the Keystone XL had anything to do with prices we pay. All countries are 12-15 meals away from bedlam.
Irina, Another great article. The comment about making political decisions with no regard for the economic considerations is what I have been thinking about. It seems the EU goaded on by the US jumped on the sanctions train with no thought whatsoever as to what the second and third order effects would be.
With the train being piloted by such geniuses as Ursala, Olaf, BoJo, and rotten tomato target Macron with a conductor like Grandpa Joe why worry. These people will never admit they were wrong nor do they have a brake on this train that we are all unfortunately riding on with them.
It seems the economic pain was not sufficient enough to be rid of Macron in France but I expect it will be ratcheting up for us all. The summer is coming and so is protest season. Then winter. Buy a new winter coat when they are on sale this summer.
We're already having quite a few protests and I don't expect the pressure to start easing soon. We're certainly in for even more interesting times. Loved the summary of who's making the decisions!
Irina, Thank you so much for this explanation! This makes a very complicated issue understandable.!!! You are and Energy Thought Leader Rockstar. ETLR ?
😂 You're too generous with the compliments, Stu. I'm flattered. I guess all complicated issues can become understandable if you spend a lot of time trying to uncomplicate them. Reading crime fiction might be helpful, I suspect, based on my experience.
What I'm about to type is of course not an indictment on you or your writing style but this piece reads like a shitty, over dramatic soap opera filled with low quality actors, writers and producers.
"She slept with him to get back at her sister who stole some idea from her former lover while having an affair with her distant cousin who also happened to work at the same office as her step father who walked in on his ex-wife and son-in law and now someone has spilled wine all over someone's face"...I'm laughing but I fully acknowledge that is no joke.
I live in an EU member state, of course I will judge them. Would you care to present some counter-arguments to the arguments I present with regard to EU energy policies? Also, I would appreciate any examples you can supply of me being pro-Russian. Thanks!
Irina, after reading a handful of your articles, I think your coverage is always quite one-sided- only criticism and not constructive suggestions.
I completely agree with many of your criticisms, but I think you put so much energy into condemning the EU's approach that it ends up seeming unbelievable - hence the pro-Russian, as it seems like arguments one might expect from that side.
I see no reason to give examples, I'm sure you're so intelligent that you can see it for yourself if you look.
Thanks for clarifying. I have been criticised before for not offering specific solutions, too. This is kind of flattering because it assumes I have the professional expertise to solve Europe's actual or perceived energy problems. In fact, my criticism is often of the sort "If you hadn't done this, we wouldn't be in this position". As for specific solutions, finding them is not the job of journalists. Finding these solutions are the job of people elected or appointed to do exactly that. The job of the journalists is to probe the weak points and bring to light things that the people who make the decisions do not want to see light.
P.S. The belief that criticism of EU = pro-Russian sentiment is quite prevalent, I fear, but I'm ready to take that "risk" and be seen as a Moscow troll if that's what it takes. Thanks again and you have a great weekend, too!
I was delighted Irina, to share your great article on LinkedIn with the title: "SNAFU, the boat is sinking normally".
I love the fact based list, was also disappointed that in 8 years our politics had no time to draw any kind of reaction or pro-action plan, it's just laughable...
Do not take umbrage of what some other comments say, the tone you used is just exactly what was needed for this analysis, thank you.
"SNAFU, the boat is sinking normally" is a brilliant headline! Thanks, Eric. Our politicians never thought it would come to this, I'm becoming increasingly certain of it.
I was expecting you to write a post on this topic and share your thoughts, after the taps were turned off on Poland and Bulgaria. How is the situation in your home country. I heard in the news that Bulgaria's supply can only last for up to a little over 1 month.
According to a Bloomberg report ENI Italy's energy giant has also accepted to buy in Rubles. The governor of the Bank of Italy was quoted as say that boycotting Russian gas will bring the country into recession.
Italy's decision to buy in Rubles is slowly adding to the number of EU nations that are accepting to pay for gas in Rubles. If the numbers keep increasing then Ursula Von Der Layen may have a hard time keeping EU member states united on certain issues.
Yes, we're going to have an interesting summer. We do have gas for a bit over a month, according to industry people. For now, there have been warnings about halving the number of public transport buses in Sofia, "lukewarm" water for those who use the services of central heating and water utilities, and, what worried me, one member of the gas industry association saying that fertiliser producers and a lot of other businesses that depend on gas as feedstock would have to shut down if we don't urgently find an *affordable* replacement for Russian gas. Also, our single gas storage cavern is only about 17% full, so we can't really use that. Petrol's hit 1.50 euros as well, and diesel is about 1.70 euro per litre, which is about to push all prices higher, so it's not a very rosy situation.
Funny how, despite all this, there is plenty of shale gas that they will not even consider drilling, and they are shutting down yet more natural gas in the Netherlands.
These leaders just don’t see any of this as their problem because they’re all rich, and they’re too stubborn to admit that their poor leadership has led not only to the war in Ukraine, encouraged by their weakness and dependence, but also to a massive increase in dependence on coal in China and India as well as continental Europe.
By the way, I’m in California so my leaders aren’t any better. They’d rather dry out the entire Colorado river basin than invest in desalination plants, and they shut down a bunch of our nuclear energy already. I’m just joining you in venting some frustration in what I see as a generational issue as the boomer leaders are the worst we’ve ever seen and it sure is frustrating.
Thank you, John, and commiserations for living in California where, I'm told, you have ads for energy conservation AND more energy use at the same time. We're at the same level of idiocy, I feel.
Irina I am new to the site and read several titles and they are brilliant. I tell my friends and when in discussions about rising prices that we have no one to thank then our politicians. I am American and when Joe Biden speaks on TV to tell us we need to sacrifice to help Ukraine because Putin is a monster is just hog wash. I lived in Europe for five years and the EU is cutting off its nose to spite its face is just crazy.
But none of those people making the decisions will have to suffer just the pleebs. IT just sickens me. I served in the military in two wars Vietnam and then took a battalion to Iraq. I question my patriotism now as I see all the lies our media is doing. War should be stopped not supplied and then our elected officials stating on national TV we are in this to win. I just got sick to my stomach.
Thank you so much, Gordon, I'm happy to have you here. Hogwash is an excellent description of not just U.S. but EU policies as well. I can also relate closely to the way you feel when you see what the government is doing. Ours is equally arrogant, to put it mildly. But I try to remember that our politicians do not, in fact, represent the country, its culture or its values. They represent those who voted for them and most of these are already disappointed. There's more than one reason to be patriotic, don't give that up!
Good write up, Irina. I sometimes wonder if there is a disease that comes with being European. The last 20 years has been a disaster that hasn't completely unfolded yet. As you noted in this report, the world is getting ready to learn the importance of the Haber-Bosch process for fixing N2. So now in addition to intermittent or unaffordable power there are going to be hungry bellies, and not just in Africa. And what is Europe's response to this? Doubling down on green energy. How much idiocy does it take before people rise up? I am not pointing fingers. We in the U.S. are traveling break-neck down the same path. I wish the best for you and Bulgaria. Keep up the good work. Cheers
Thank you, Dave! I think it's not about being European generally, rather with being European, especially Western European right now. They never had totalitarianism. So many years of growing comfort leads to complacency and complacency leads to made-up problems because that's how our brains operate, apparently. Made-up problems lead to real problems, complacency ends, and so on and so forth. How long before people have had enough is something we might see as soon as this year.
Fair point regarding complacency. We in the U.S. have never known any deprivation of any kind for the last 75 years, certainly since WWII. A more spoiled population doesn't exist of planet earth. The wake up call in the U.S. isn't being heard. I will have an article on OilPrice later today that discusses structural problems in our energy picture. Bottom line, people who think we can seriously ramp up gas production are in for a rude shock. Keep up your fine output. I always look forward to your commentary. Cheers
Two things. One, everyone in the US knows that the President has a switch on the Resolute Desk that turns energy availability up and down, e.g., the Keystone XL had anything to do with prices we pay. All countries are 12-15 meals away from bedlam.
Irina, Another great article. The comment about making political decisions with no regard for the economic considerations is what I have been thinking about. It seems the EU goaded on by the US jumped on the sanctions train with no thought whatsoever as to what the second and third order effects would be.
With the train being piloted by such geniuses as Ursala, Olaf, BoJo, and rotten tomato target Macron with a conductor like Grandpa Joe why worry. These people will never admit they were wrong nor do they have a brake on this train that we are all unfortunately riding on with them.
It seems the economic pain was not sufficient enough to be rid of Macron in France but I expect it will be ratcheting up for us all. The summer is coming and so is protest season. Then winter. Buy a new winter coat when they are on sale this summer.
We're already having quite a few protests and I don't expect the pressure to start easing soon. We're certainly in for even more interesting times. Loved the summary of who's making the decisions!
Irina, Thank you so much for this explanation! This makes a very complicated issue understandable.!!! You are and Energy Thought Leader Rockstar. ETLR ?
😂 You're too generous with the compliments, Stu. I'm flattered. I guess all complicated issues can become understandable if you spend a lot of time trying to uncomplicate them. Reading crime fiction might be helpful, I suspect, based on my experience.
What I'm about to type is of course not an indictment on you or your writing style but this piece reads like a shitty, over dramatic soap opera filled with low quality actors, writers and producers.
"She slept with him to get back at her sister who stole some idea from her former lover while having an affair with her distant cousin who also happened to work at the same office as her step father who walked in on his ex-wife and son-in law and now someone has spilled wine all over someone's face"...I'm laughing but I fully acknowledge that is no joke.
Soldier on my friend!
I love this! :D It is, indeed, a very low-quality production.
I always think you seem very pro-Russian and judgmental against what the EU does - is it random?
It's of course perfectly fine no matter, it gives an idea what people with a different approach think.
Good weekend.
I live in an EU member state, of course I will judge them. Would you care to present some counter-arguments to the arguments I present with regard to EU energy policies? Also, I would appreciate any examples you can supply of me being pro-Russian. Thanks!
Irina, after reading a handful of your articles, I think your coverage is always quite one-sided- only criticism and not constructive suggestions.
I completely agree with many of your criticisms, but I think you put so much energy into condemning the EU's approach that it ends up seeming unbelievable - hence the pro-Russian, as it seems like arguments one might expect from that side.
I see no reason to give examples, I'm sure you're so intelligent that you can see it for yourself if you look.
Have a nice weekend
Thanks for clarifying. I have been criticised before for not offering specific solutions, too. This is kind of flattering because it assumes I have the professional expertise to solve Europe's actual or perceived energy problems. In fact, my criticism is often of the sort "If you hadn't done this, we wouldn't be in this position". As for specific solutions, finding them is not the job of journalists. Finding these solutions are the job of people elected or appointed to do exactly that. The job of the journalists is to probe the weak points and bring to light things that the people who make the decisions do not want to see light.
P.S. The belief that criticism of EU = pro-Russian sentiment is quite prevalent, I fear, but I'm ready to take that "risk" and be seen as a Moscow troll if that's what it takes. Thanks again and you have a great weekend, too!
Irina thank you for distilling all this. its like squeezing mercury, constantly slipping between my fingers. I wonder if you could look at this article: https://www.powermag.com/gas-power-outlook-volatility-and-viability/?oly_enc_id=4313B1575389I5Y
Thank you for the link. A very good article.
Good write Irina; sometimes reality goes against the grain of political thinking.
I was delighted Irina, to share your great article on LinkedIn with the title: "SNAFU, the boat is sinking normally".
I love the fact based list, was also disappointed that in 8 years our politics had no time to draw any kind of reaction or pro-action plan, it's just laughable...
Do not take umbrage of what some other comments say, the tone you used is just exactly what was needed for this analysis, thank you.
"SNAFU, the boat is sinking normally" is a brilliant headline! Thanks, Eric. Our politicians never thought it would come to this, I'm becoming increasingly certain of it.
I was expecting you to write a post on this topic and share your thoughts, after the taps were turned off on Poland and Bulgaria. How is the situation in your home country. I heard in the news that Bulgaria's supply can only last for up to a little over 1 month.
According to a Bloomberg report ENI Italy's energy giant has also accepted to buy in Rubles. The governor of the Bank of Italy was quoted as say that boycotting Russian gas will bring the country into recession.
Italy's decision to buy in Rubles is slowly adding to the number of EU nations that are accepting to pay for gas in Rubles. If the numbers keep increasing then Ursula Von Der Layen may have a hard time keeping EU member states united on certain issues.
Yes, we're going to have an interesting summer. We do have gas for a bit over a month, according to industry people. For now, there have been warnings about halving the number of public transport buses in Sofia, "lukewarm" water for those who use the services of central heating and water utilities, and, what worried me, one member of the gas industry association saying that fertiliser producers and a lot of other businesses that depend on gas as feedstock would have to shut down if we don't urgently find an *affordable* replacement for Russian gas. Also, our single gas storage cavern is only about 17% full, so we can't really use that. Petrol's hit 1.50 euros as well, and diesel is about 1.70 euro per litre, which is about to push all prices higher, so it's not a very rosy situation.
Funny how, despite all this, there is plenty of shale gas that they will not even consider drilling, and they are shutting down yet more natural gas in the Netherlands.
These leaders just don’t see any of this as their problem because they’re all rich, and they’re too stubborn to admit that their poor leadership has led not only to the war in Ukraine, encouraged by their weakness and dependence, but also to a massive increase in dependence on coal in China and India as well as continental Europe.
By the way, I’m in California so my leaders aren’t any better. They’d rather dry out the entire Colorado river basin than invest in desalination plants, and they shut down a bunch of our nuclear energy already. I’m just joining you in venting some frustration in what I see as a generational issue as the boomer leaders are the worst we’ve ever seen and it sure is frustrating.
I love your blog, keep up the good work!
Thank you, John, and commiserations for living in California where, I'm told, you have ads for energy conservation AND more energy use at the same time. We're at the same level of idiocy, I feel.
ha! snarky stack! love it!
Suddenly, the name I chose looks extremely boring. Snarky stack would've been way better. 😁Thanks for dropping by!
Irina I am new to the site and read several titles and they are brilliant. I tell my friends and when in discussions about rising prices that we have no one to thank then our politicians. I am American and when Joe Biden speaks on TV to tell us we need to sacrifice to help Ukraine because Putin is a monster is just hog wash. I lived in Europe for five years and the EU is cutting off its nose to spite its face is just crazy.
But none of those people making the decisions will have to suffer just the pleebs. IT just sickens me. I served in the military in two wars Vietnam and then took a battalion to Iraq. I question my patriotism now as I see all the lies our media is doing. War should be stopped not supplied and then our elected officials stating on national TV we are in this to win. I just got sick to my stomach.
Thank you so much, Gordon, I'm happy to have you here. Hogwash is an excellent description of not just U.S. but EU policies as well. I can also relate closely to the way you feel when you see what the government is doing. Ours is equally arrogant, to put it mildly. But I try to remember that our politicians do not, in fact, represent the country, its culture or its values. They represent those who voted for them and most of these are already disappointed. There's more than one reason to be patriotic, don't give that up!