Tis the season for crystal ball gazing

Everyone’s doing predictions for the new year. Of course, most did these predictions at the end of last year but I don’t really have any truck with The Done Thing and I was way too busy doing nothing over the holidays, so my predictions are a couple of weeks later than everyone else’s.

I assume we’ve all heard about Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions, which used to be a source of light entertainment but are now too mainstream for me to appreciate them. I will today try to one up Saxo with a few even more outrageous predictions.

1. Heat pump sales in Europe will explode. They’re already exploding in Germany… in anticipation of an end to pretty generous subsidies for the pumps. It’s not only happening in Germany. The industry is calling for more cash and it will absolutely get it. As we know, once you pledge a transition there’s no going back. Too bad the populist wave has reached Germany and has yet to crest.

2. EV sales in the UK will soar. Yes, they would. So what if they were just 18% of all car sales last year? The government has Launched A Consultation on the topic and it will find a way to make it happen. Perhaps by wishing for it really hard. Either that or that and raising taxes on the oil and gas industry to 90%. It would’ve been unthinkable two years ago but now? Now, nothing is unthinkable. Not for the people who want to store electricity in giant flywheels and destroy farmland to put panels on it.

3. Wind and solar in the EU will smash all records. Yes, installations of both declined in 2024 and a lot of solar developers are going bust but it’s okay because it’s only happening in Germany, even though it isn’t. Also, not to worry about the dark doldrums of the season. It will all get back to normal around spring. Of course, more generation would mean more negative prices, and more negative prices would mean more busts, but that’s a problem for future Europe.

By the way, the head of SolarPower Europe wins the award for quote of the month: “You cannot have a green transition with red numbers. The sector needs to be profitable.” Says you, Dries Acke, and what do you know about anything.

Also by the way, a guy by the name of Steve Moody from something called Conrad Energy wins the award for brutal spin of the month. Per the NYT: “During the gloomy stillness of a Dunkelflaute, solar panels produce little power and wind turbines slow to a halt. Without these two mainstays of renewable energy, grid operators need to call on backup power plants like natural-gas-fired generators.”

“The cost of running these power plants is higher, which drives up prices when renewable sources are falling behind, said Steve Moody.” In other words, the reason for high electricity prices when there’s no wind and solar is the fact that people still need electricity. This is an obsolete idea that we need to get rid of this year.

4. Europe’s geography will change. Okay, that was going a step too far but a lot of Europeans will wish geography could change. Russian gas is over, the Qataris don’t want to be taxed for emissions, so the only option is U.S. LNG. Which is fine and dandy if you don’t care about the price and there are plenty of people in Europe who don’t care about the price because the money doesn’t come out of their pockets. Besides, who said you need cheap energy to make competitive products? That’s disinformation spread by the enemies of the transition.

What you need in order to be competitive is clean energy, as eloquently put by the head of WindEurope. “Governments must follow Germany’s example if they are serious about energy security and industrial competitiveness,” Giles Dickson said in a release that lamented the slow growth in wind power in Europe. Who said Dunkelflaute? Go stand in the corner.

My totally fact-based prediction is that the end of cheap pipeline gas from the Evil East will do European transitioners a favour because wind and solar will start looking even more attractive, dark doldrums and all. All this is going to do wonders for the competitiveness of European businesses, of course, and the exodus to other continents will end by the time March rolls in. Any perception that this is not the case would be dismissed as a dangerous delusion and penalised per the EU’s freedom of speech rules.

5. Trump will learn to love the panels and turbines. Wind and solar developers in the States are not throwing in the towel. They are doubling down on reframing their message into music for the subsidy-hating ears of the president-elect. Which is where the Wall Street Journal joins Reuters in being uncool and writing that “Green-energy companies are freaking out, trying to figure out how to navigate the Republican sweep of the White House and Congress.”

Those are harsh words for an industry that has done nothing but good since it came into existence but nowhere near as harsh as Trump’s plans for it: he wants to take away as much as $350 billion in noble wind and solar subsidies. Over the next 10 years.

So, damage control mode is in full swing and, per the WSJ “Advisers have suggested the industry tweak its talking points. Instead of touting projects as “clean and affordable,” renewables firms are highlighting their projects’ ability to “meet energy needs.”” I can’t say I’m surprised. “Clean and affordable” has clearly outlived its usefulness. It’s time to move on to something edgier — with the added bonus of sounding scary. Fear is a great motivator for taking action.

““It’s all about demand right now,” said Jim Murphy, president and co-founder of Invenergy, a developer of renewables, transmission and natural-gas power. “If you look at the forecasts, we’re going to need everything as fast as we can get it.” Say what you will, I find this charming. Also utterly convincing. Expect Trump to start singing praise to wind and solar as soon as he enters the Oval Office.

On a serious note…

6. The European car industry is going to meet reality head-on. A recent report by the European Association of Automotive Suppliers revealed 30,000 jobs were axed in the industry last year. VW and its worker union agreed on cutting 35,000 jobs in Germany, which is a quarter of its workforce in the country. VW also said it would cut capacity by more than 700,000 cars. Apparently, the company suffered production overcapacity, so it’s just getting slimmer and healthier. Also selling fewer EVs. But it says they’re more reliable than ICE cars. All is going totally well there.

7. The Brits are going to get angry. The Scots already are, slamming the Starmerites for making empty promises of cheaper energy. Opposition against wind turbines in sensitive areas seems to also be gathering pace and now people are complaining about their smart meters because they’re sending their electricity bills sky-high. Five quid for a cuppa, take it or leave it. It looks like most would like to leave it.

8. The net-zero exodus will accelerate. By now, we’ve all seen the news about several big Wall Street names leaving the Net Zero Banking Alliance. Some media report tried to present it as a pre-emptive move to Trump’s reversal of transition policies but I dare say it’s a sign of the return of common sense — and a pre-emptive move to Trump’s reversal of transition policies because these guys aren’t climate activists. They’re in the net-zero game for money and if money’s going to dry up, so are they. BlackRock just joined the crowd.

9. Crusaders will hit peak panic. Here’s a taste: Fossil Fuel Interests Ramp Up Their “Solar Makes Electricity More Expensive” Falsehood. Also, 'Hydroclimatic whiplash' and the hottest year on record: How is climate change fuelling the California wildfires? It’s beautiful, the way a nuclear mushroom is beautiful, and it’s just the beginning. There will be a lot more of these in the coming months. But we might also see a change in the tune as sponsors realise that people are getting fed up with the fearmongering.

10. The EU’s breakdown will begin in earnest. The bloc’s already in shambles, the central Europeans are fed up with being told what to do, and energy is not getting cheaper — a context not exactly conducive to agreement and co-operation. Next month we’ll see if Germans have got fed up as well and while I have my doubts we might yet get a pleasant surprise from the arrhythmic heart of Europe. Meanwhile, the central ganglion in Brussels will keep pushing its agenda, bringing the inevitable implosion closer, faster. Okay, that last bit was more hope than expectation but where’s the fun in life with no hope?

All in all, it’s going to be another interesting year.