Earlier this month, the environmental committee of the European Parliament voted in favour of what, in case of wider support, would be a ban on the sales of petrol and diesel cars from 2035. The petrolhead in me laughed hard. Then she cried a little. Then she laughed again.
We are going to have to transition to another form of transportation eventually. Electric pick up trucks do not get it for me. The wife looked at a Lexus electric SUV but the range of these vehicles is honestly a joke currently. We live on a farm and distances we travel cannot be done most of the time in a EV. We live in rural countryside and the charging network is not even in place anywhere. The battery warranty on the batteries in the SUV was five years and if something goes wrong or they wear out your looking at almost 16k to replace them so we passed on he vehicle.
I think Japan is headed in the right direction with hydrogen fueled vehicles. Clean burning and no need to remake the entire infrastructure. The big problem currently is making hydrogen cheaply.
We like you keep our vehicles for a long time we have a 19 year old jeep and a 9 year old pick up.
I own a Model Y and an F-250 4x4 among other ICE vehicles in my family. My TLDR on EVs: the vehicles and the experience are male dominated and not ready for mass adoption. The Tesla UX is not intuitive to most, the charging (in the US) on trips is decidedly not friendly to women and older folks (they're always at the back of the lot).
That said, competition and the driving experience will solve those problems. And, if the govs would keep their hands out of price controls, the market will create less expensive and better UX vehicles (eg. the Ford E-150 looks awesome).
Re the chip shortage, etc: Musk talks (in the All In Pod Summit) about how Tesla vertically integrated their supply chain, not as there was something bad about suppliers, but as they weren't able to move at the right pace.
Last, we need to ramp UP fracking and drilling during this period, not the other way around. Let's not kid ourselves, India and China are polluting like crazy, so the west won't really put a dent in emissions. And along the way, we need to solve the problem of when I'm charging my Y, I'm burning coal to do it.
It’s not as bad a horse farming taking over in Europe.
The vast majority of the EV-only crowd of politicians are super old, and they will age out soon, hopefully by the end of the decade.
Then we can at least have a younger set of minds who aren’t stuck trying to re-live the 1970’s. Practically no one under 50 is anti-nuclear, and most people under 50 would strongly prefer energy independence & security to the forced curtailment the elders prefer.
If they really were serious about reducing ICE vehicles they would start a program to convert old ICE vehicles to BEVs. A shop can convert a car in one day. And you don't need the giant batteries. The avg car mileage is 30mi/day. Buying a cheap converted EV would be a city vehicle, avg use is ~20mi/day. Just a 40mi/10kwh battery pack would cost ~$2k in volume, another $2k for the conversion kit.
Also a faster way to get off of fossil and reduce emissions is use methanol for gas cars and DME for diesel vehicles. Both can burn directly in those vehicles. Both greatly reduce emissions, are superior to gas or diesel respectively, cost less and both can be made green from any carbonaceous input like biomass, flue gas(cement manufacture), forest overgrowth, CO2 from seawater. The PTB are blocking widespread use of methanol & DME, pushing the nutty hydrogen scam instead. In China both methanol & DME are in widespread use both for transportation, household heat and cooking fuel.
The solution isn't EV (not enough lithium, copper etc). The solution is LESS - ie everyone will have to live using what the average African uses today in terms of energy. Sorry, folks, its going to happen. We don't have a Jetsons future - think Flintstones instead.
Dear Irina, I had the chance to drive an i3, as part of a car-sharing fleet. Yes, the design is questionable but the experience was rather good. I heard from friends who drove a Tesla that it is tremendous fun (the straight-line acceleration...the huge touchscreen...). And I regularly drive a Renault Zoe, probably the most basic EV ever, through another car sharing service (cambio.be). Apart from a little range anxiety, I'm very happy with them.
Having said that, it is astonishing that nobody, literally nobody mapped out the transition in detail. That is, except China, who are now sitting on the majority of rare earths and other key minerals needed for electrification and renewables. This is the reality, these are the constraints we need to consider.
Luckily for the EP, taking reality into account is not part of their job description, neither will voters hold them accountable for it. As an EU institution with a democratic deficit bigger than Russia's gas revenues. they have both the space and the motivation for grandstanding.
Anyways, apologies for the long rant. Excellent thoughtful article, as always.
That's what people are buying when they buy an "EV".
Don't forget too, that batteries don't last forever and ALL those currently-on-the-road Battery Vehicles will be needing their batteries REPLACED and replaced regularly.
The more Battery Vehicles on the road, the greater the demand.
ICE vehicles don't have that problem.
The Battery Vehicle industry will be literally tearing the earth apart looking for minerals.
We are going to have to transition to another form of transportation eventually. Electric pick up trucks do not get it for me. The wife looked at a Lexus electric SUV but the range of these vehicles is honestly a joke currently. We live on a farm and distances we travel cannot be done most of the time in a EV. We live in rural countryside and the charging network is not even in place anywhere. The battery warranty on the batteries in the SUV was five years and if something goes wrong or they wear out your looking at almost 16k to replace them so we passed on he vehicle.
I think Japan is headed in the right direction with hydrogen fueled vehicles. Clean burning and no need to remake the entire infrastructure. The big problem currently is making hydrogen cheaply.
We like you keep our vehicles for a long time we have a 19 year old jeep and a 9 year old pick up.
solid article
I own a Model Y and an F-250 4x4 among other ICE vehicles in my family. My TLDR on EVs: the vehicles and the experience are male dominated and not ready for mass adoption. The Tesla UX is not intuitive to most, the charging (in the US) on trips is decidedly not friendly to women and older folks (they're always at the back of the lot).
That said, competition and the driving experience will solve those problems. And, if the govs would keep their hands out of price controls, the market will create less expensive and better UX vehicles (eg. the Ford E-150 looks awesome).
Re the chip shortage, etc: Musk talks (in the All In Pod Summit) about how Tesla vertically integrated their supply chain, not as there was something bad about suppliers, but as they weren't able to move at the right pace.
Last, we need to ramp UP fracking and drilling during this period, not the other way around. Let's not kid ourselves, India and China are polluting like crazy, so the west won't really put a dent in emissions. And along the way, we need to solve the problem of when I'm charging my Y, I'm burning coal to do it.
It’s not as bad a horse farming taking over in Europe.
The vast majority of the EV-only crowd of politicians are super old, and they will age out soon, hopefully by the end of the decade.
Then we can at least have a younger set of minds who aren’t stuck trying to re-live the 1970’s. Practically no one under 50 is anti-nuclear, and most people under 50 would strongly prefer energy independence & security to the forced curtailment the elders prefer.
The worst part of this new cult religion of the world ending is how quickly the politicians everywhere were so quick to sign up.
“… EU roads will be quite a sight in 2035, if the ban is in fact adopted.”
And here you have the real reason for the insanity.
If they really were serious about reducing ICE vehicles they would start a program to convert old ICE vehicles to BEVs. A shop can convert a car in one day. And you don't need the giant batteries. The avg car mileage is 30mi/day. Buying a cheap converted EV would be a city vehicle, avg use is ~20mi/day. Just a 40mi/10kwh battery pack would cost ~$2k in volume, another $2k for the conversion kit.
Also a faster way to get off of fossil and reduce emissions is use methanol for gas cars and DME for diesel vehicles. Both can burn directly in those vehicles. Both greatly reduce emissions, are superior to gas or diesel respectively, cost less and both can be made green from any carbonaceous input like biomass, flue gas(cement manufacture), forest overgrowth, CO2 from seawater. The PTB are blocking widespread use of methanol & DME, pushing the nutty hydrogen scam instead. In China both methanol & DME are in widespread use both for transportation, household heat and cooking fuel.
The solution isn't EV (not enough lithium, copper etc). The solution is LESS - ie everyone will have to live using what the average African uses today in terms of energy. Sorry, folks, its going to happen. We don't have a Jetsons future - think Flintstones instead.
Omg i wanted to be a smartass and comment that I'm starting a DAO to invest in horse farms! You stole my line!
Dear Irina, I had the chance to drive an i3, as part of a car-sharing fleet. Yes, the design is questionable but the experience was rather good. I heard from friends who drove a Tesla that it is tremendous fun (the straight-line acceleration...the huge touchscreen...). And I regularly drive a Renault Zoe, probably the most basic EV ever, through another car sharing service (cambio.be). Apart from a little range anxiety, I'm very happy with them.
Having said that, it is astonishing that nobody, literally nobody mapped out the transition in detail. That is, except China, who are now sitting on the majority of rare earths and other key minerals needed for electrification and renewables. This is the reality, these are the constraints we need to consider.
Luckily for the EP, taking reality into account is not part of their job description, neither will voters hold them accountable for it. As an EU institution with a democratic deficit bigger than Russia's gas revenues. they have both the space and the motivation for grandstanding.
Anyways, apologies for the long rant. Excellent thoughtful article, as always.
Battery-on-wheels.
That's what people are buying when they buy an "EV".
Don't forget too, that batteries don't last forever and ALL those currently-on-the-road Battery Vehicles will be needing their batteries REPLACED and replaced regularly.
The more Battery Vehicles on the road, the greater the demand.
ICE vehicles don't have that problem.
The Battery Vehicle industry will be literally tearing the earth apart looking for minerals.
Horse farming has a bright future in Europe. That one got to me in big way.