With the EU approving an almost complete embargo on Russian oil and the U.S. already having banned Russian crude, how long can the collective West endure the consequences? I realise this question, as I have posed it, may sound biased but it is a fact that fuel prices are rising in Europe and the U.S., not in Russia. So, how long until the importers fold/change the narrative? I will generously say November. Your turn.
Don’t get me started….EV’s get a 9000 Euro Gov rebate (paid from my gas tax I bet), 6760 for Hybrids and Free parking with reserved spots in my town. Costs me about 100 Euros 💶 to fill up my little Fiat 500X with Diesel.
Wasn't too long ago that Europe and GB were pushing diesel vehicles as the best way forward. Now you are paying higher prices for that fuel. Now the wind is blowing another direction. (Pun intented...) I say the sanctions will never really take effect, but the higher prices will.
I don't have the background to make a credible prediction. Russia is in the driver's seat and according to most "sources" I have skimmed over is raking in the rubles, dollars and euros. Next up for market control are OPEC+ (or-), China and India. For the Greens of the planet this is all a dream come true forcing the planet to go renewable. So the first question is how cold will Europeans get and how much will Americans pay for gas before either has a regime change that will lead to a new deal with the Czar.
The planet can try to go renewable, but it won't solve these problems. You can't run a reliable economy on unreliable renewables. Never been done and will never happen -- unless one includes hydro in renewables.
Hydro gets included in renewable stats whenever it suits their authors. The problem with hydro is you can't add a lot of it fast, unlike solar and wind. And there are environmental implications, too (not that there aren't any with wind/solar).
So many moving parts. Will Russian oil find new buyers? Will a recession begin to weaken demand? Will Europe make proclamations about banning Russian energy all while continuing to buy Russian energy? maybe indirectly.
Oil will always find buyers, look at Iran and Venezuela, which are much smaller producers than Russia.Recession wil weaken demand -- for everything, not just oil.
The problem as I see it is - we can’t sanction oil countries and be at war with our own oil & gas industry at the same time. That’s just plain dumb.
Now about your question. Hmmm. Let’s see. California has endured the consequences and pain of insane public policy for decades without changing the way they vote. So I would say the West can endure incredible quantities of pain before we change our collective minds. My optimistic prediction to your question would be Jan 2025. But I’m afraid everything will be in shambles by then.
California is a very special, very precious case. I'm being very polite.The West is not as homogenous as some would like us to believe, especially in Europe, but also in the U.S., I'm sure.
International oil prices are rising but not in line with the magnitude of the problems that sanctions on such a major producer should have otherwise resulted in. I am not sure if I know the reason. Nevertheless, Buyers of Russian oil, unlike Iranian or Venezuelan buyers have to provide their own means of transportation and sanctions related documentations. Indian and Chinese buyers load oil in small to medium vessels and carry to bigger ships.
Irina - Thank you very much for addressing the core global issue of energy flow. Unfortunately, lot of Americans here do not realize the importance of this issue and they have been indoctrinated to hate Putin and Russia by the mainstream media. One group of people really believe that Putin got Trump elected in 2016 and another groups still believes that they are fighting commies and are justified to continue this war. Although I teach energy engineering and thermodynamics, I have come to realize that reason and logic do not mean anything even for many educated people that I encounter in my daily interactions here. This is a tragedy of great power politics! please watch John Mearshimer videos. Energy flow is intrinsically connected to flow of power and cannot be decoupled from human social and psychological dimensions. Also remember the words of Henry Kissinger, the man himself spoke the truth! "To be an enemy of America is dangerous and to be friend is FATAL! This tells you the truth about the future of Europe.
Indoctrination has never worked in favour of the indoctrinated, only in favour of the indoctrinators. And indeed, I've also seen that education does not make for intelligence and rational thought. It is, as you say, tragic. Also tragic is failure to learn from history, which the EU has clearly done, even if we assume they disagree with Kissinger because what he says is quite unpleasant. Thank you for your remarks!
At current trends, about 4-6 months from now. The embargo may not be changing Russian minds, but they are expending resources at a high rate (tell us the experts) and will need a break. Also, fighting through the winter is probably not part of the plan. In a few months, a face saving ceasefire/sanctions deal should be feasible. Things could definitely break before then, but it will be difficult to walk back with nothing to claim in return.
If things do break sooner, it is quite possible for US to ban oil exports (just a stroke of the pen before the elections) to contain prices. That gives most EU countries an out (there are already some agreed exceptions) and embargo falls apart.
Well, I'd say the higher petrol prices go, the higher the odds become but I suppose they'll tread carefully there, it's quite a big step and they'd have to ban fuel exports as well to make a difference in retail prices, and that might trigger quite a bit of dissatisfaction in the industry.
Irina - I agree with you! I anticipate things might begin to crumble in September and continue till December unless there is a change in the administration and geo-political scene. I just filled the gas today (6/3/2022) at $5.19 in a small university town here in US! Nations will need to cooperate and live in multi-polar reality!
november is already mid term, the senile fool will be toast by then. my worry isn't that, it's they will push forward a full scale war to topple Putin and take Russia's assets back. never thought i'd say this, but i'm actually happy he has nuke deterrence. we'd easily be in WW3 if he had not.
Agree. Israel has it. So do India and Pakistan. What's one more nuclear power on a scene with already quite a lot nuclear powers, not all of them poster children of stability and sense.
I understand your sentiment but it's the same with the U.S. and Russia. U.S. considers Russia a bunch of loonie commies/crazy dictatorship and yet they're nuclear and have been for decades. Like I said earlier, the concept of mutually assured destruction, while quite horrible, makes a lot of rational sense.
Of course, when it comes to Iran I'm much more pro lifting the sanctions and maybe, just maybe, reformists come back into power some time soon instead of the country radicalising any further because of sanctions. The effect of sanctions on political and ideological radicalisation is quite a big one so I'll shut up for now.
When I first learned about the concept of mutually assured destruction I was horrified (I was also 16). Now, it makes perfect if a little perverse sense. Your worry is not without basis, to be honest, let's hope nobody is THAT stupid.
November is a good bet - a meager harvest will be in. This, combined with unafforable (to many) heating costs and the an upcomin US election mean politicians will be desperate for any solution - ideology be damned.
Back From Gulfport the fishing was fine!!! This is a tough one as the EU elites really could care less about the population. December is my call. If you have been keeping up with global politics the USA is pressuring OPEC to drop Russia as a member. So far OPEC told Biden to take a hike.
Russia is going to find a place to sell its oil the West be damned. Personally, I think, and this scares me someone will fire a nuke. War must happen in the Western political minds and we cannot have them losing face.
The truth is not something people want to see they want to spend money and have a good time this summer. Russia is currently and will remain in charge of the battle front no matter how the west wants to spin it.
I'm afraid I have to agree that someone somewhere really wants an all-out war as a way of shifting blame for disastrous policies For now, there is still a grain of sanity. I hope it remains viable.
I like you hope and pray your correct. I really do but a nuclear capable government will release a nuke before it loses face or whatever people want to call it. Losing global reserve status may well be the catalyst for this.
Ok well I will say that perhaps not immediately but come 1st Jan, 2023 going on. The EU is still not ready to let go of Russian oil and gas just yet until it finds verified alternatives which they are working on right now.
Dear Irina, this is a Finnish daily but with a good perspective on the consequences of the European energy / sanctions policy: https://www.hs.fi/paakirjoitukset/art-2000008867063.html "Inflation will become the most important social and political theme in Finland and elsewhere in Europe in the near future."
Let me see...the sanctions won't start to bite until December (crude) and then February-March (refined products). So I'd say earliest in Q1 2023.
On the other hand, Russia may fold well before that. Or it could stop gas/oil delivery, just to show it can. And US mid-terms are coming on November. So it could happen as early as Sept-Oct.
Otherwise, let me just say - it's the easiest thing to maintain the (political) narrative. Europe and the US can do that ad infinitum. Maintaining social cohesion in face of galloping inflation, declining living standards and a potential deep recession - that'd be the real test.
In Germany we are already at $9-$10 gallon for Diesel. Been there for awhile.
But you all drive EVs, so that's all right, isn't it? Forgive my sarcasm.
Don’t get me started….EV’s get a 9000 Euro Gov rebate (paid from my gas tax I bet), 6760 for Hybrids and Free parking with reserved spots in my town. Costs me about 100 Euros 💶 to fill up my little Fiat 500X with Diesel.
Wasn't too long ago that Europe and GB were pushing diesel vehicles as the best way forward. Now you are paying higher prices for that fuel. Now the wind is blowing another direction. (Pun intented...) I say the sanctions will never really take effect, but the higher prices will.
Which year Irina? 🤔
This current one.Good question, though.
Then I agree with your guess
I don't have the background to make a credible prediction. Russia is in the driver's seat and according to most "sources" I have skimmed over is raking in the rubles, dollars and euros. Next up for market control are OPEC+ (or-), China and India. For the Greens of the planet this is all a dream come true forcing the planet to go renewable. So the first question is how cold will Europeans get and how much will Americans pay for gas before either has a regime change that will lead to a new deal with the Czar.
Yes, how cold would we need to get for things to start changing is exactly where we are.
The planet can try to go renewable, but it won't solve these problems. You can't run a reliable economy on unreliable renewables. Never been done and will never happen -- unless one includes hydro in renewables.
Hydro gets included in renewable stats whenever it suits their authors. The problem with hydro is you can't add a lot of it fast, unlike solar and wind. And there are environmental implications, too (not that there aren't any with wind/solar).
So many moving parts. Will Russian oil find new buyers? Will a recession begin to weaken demand? Will Europe make proclamations about banning Russian energy all while continuing to buy Russian energy? maybe indirectly.
Oil will always find buyers, look at Iran and Venezuela, which are much smaller producers than Russia.Recession wil weaken demand -- for everything, not just oil.
Think for what you wish!
If globalists continue these ideological policies, the EFFECTS will spell their demise.
It causes pain, but it also causes change.
Post elections country by country until critical mass of countries then they all change.
Not sure they will, not all of them.
The problem as I see it is - we can’t sanction oil countries and be at war with our own oil & gas industry at the same time. That’s just plain dumb.
Now about your question. Hmmm. Let’s see. California has endured the consequences and pain of insane public policy for decades without changing the way they vote. So I would say the West can endure incredible quantities of pain before we change our collective minds. My optimistic prediction to your question would be Jan 2025. But I’m afraid everything will be in shambles by then.
California is a very special, very precious case. I'm being very polite.The West is not as homogenous as some would like us to believe, especially in Europe, but also in the U.S., I'm sure.
International oil prices are rising but not in line with the magnitude of the problems that sanctions on such a major producer should have otherwise resulted in. I am not sure if I know the reason. Nevertheless, Buyers of Russian oil, unlike Iranian or Venezuelan buyers have to provide their own means of transportation and sanctions related documentations. Indian and Chinese buyers load oil in small to medium vessels and carry to bigger ships.
Irina - Thank you very much for addressing the core global issue of energy flow. Unfortunately, lot of Americans here do not realize the importance of this issue and they have been indoctrinated to hate Putin and Russia by the mainstream media. One group of people really believe that Putin got Trump elected in 2016 and another groups still believes that they are fighting commies and are justified to continue this war. Although I teach energy engineering and thermodynamics, I have come to realize that reason and logic do not mean anything even for many educated people that I encounter in my daily interactions here. This is a tragedy of great power politics! please watch John Mearshimer videos. Energy flow is intrinsically connected to flow of power and cannot be decoupled from human social and psychological dimensions. Also remember the words of Henry Kissinger, the man himself spoke the truth! "To be an enemy of America is dangerous and to be friend is FATAL! This tells you the truth about the future of Europe.
Indoctrination has never worked in favour of the indoctrinated, only in favour of the indoctrinators. And indeed, I've also seen that education does not make for intelligence and rational thought. It is, as you say, tragic. Also tragic is failure to learn from history, which the EU has clearly done, even if we assume they disagree with Kissinger because what he says is quite unpleasant. Thank you for your remarks!
Late July
Ambitious. I like that!
At current trends, about 4-6 months from now. The embargo may not be changing Russian minds, but they are expending resources at a high rate (tell us the experts) and will need a break. Also, fighting through the winter is probably not part of the plan. In a few months, a face saving ceasefire/sanctions deal should be feasible. Things could definitely break before then, but it will be difficult to walk back with nothing to claim in return.
If things do break sooner, it is quite possible for US to ban oil exports (just a stroke of the pen before the elections) to contain prices. That gives most EU countries an out (there are already some agreed exceptions) and embargo falls apart.
What are the odds that US will ban exports?
Well, I'd say the higher petrol prices go, the higher the odds become but I suppose they'll tread carefully there, it's quite a big step and they'd have to ban fuel exports as well to make a difference in retail prices, and that might trigger quite a bit of dissatisfaction in the industry.
Irina - I agree with you! I anticipate things might begin to crumble in September and continue till December unless there is a change in the administration and geo-political scene. I just filled the gas today (6/3/2022) at $5.19 in a small university town here in US! Nations will need to cooperate and live in multi-polar reality!
It's tough for the leaders of the unipolar world to swallow that but they might just have to.
november is already mid term, the senile fool will be toast by then. my worry isn't that, it's they will push forward a full scale war to topple Putin and take Russia's assets back. never thought i'd say this, but i'm actually happy he has nuke deterrence. we'd easily be in WW3 if he had not.
I'll go further - the whole world will be better off if Iran would make a nuclear weapon.
Agree. Israel has it. So do India and Pakistan. What's one more nuclear power on a scene with already quite a lot nuclear powers, not all of them poster children of stability and sense.
I'm israeli, so I'll have to vote "no thanks" on the notion of islamist loonies with a nuke.
I understand your sentiment but it's the same with the U.S. and Russia. U.S. considers Russia a bunch of loonie commies/crazy dictatorship and yet they're nuclear and have been for decades. Like I said earlier, the concept of mutually assured destruction, while quite horrible, makes a lot of rational sense.
Of course, when it comes to Iran I'm much more pro lifting the sanctions and maybe, just maybe, reformists come back into power some time soon instead of the country radicalising any further because of sanctions. The effect of sanctions on political and ideological radicalisation is quite a big one so I'll shut up for now.
When I first learned about the concept of mutually assured destruction I was horrified (I was also 16). Now, it makes perfect if a little perverse sense. Your worry is not without basis, to be honest, let's hope nobody is THAT stupid.
I’ll take under. You are too generous.
Central bankers cave, oil prices explode.
Politicians reverse course or risk revolution…
November is a good bet - a meager harvest will be in. This, combined with unafforable (to many) heating costs and the an upcomin US election mean politicians will be desperate for any solution - ideology be damned.
It's high time ideology was damned in favour of reality.
Back From Gulfport the fishing was fine!!! This is a tough one as the EU elites really could care less about the population. December is my call. If you have been keeping up with global politics the USA is pressuring OPEC to drop Russia as a member. So far OPEC told Biden to take a hike.
Russia is going to find a place to sell its oil the West be damned. Personally, I think, and this scares me someone will fire a nuke. War must happen in the Western political minds and we cannot have them losing face.
The truth is not something people want to see they want to spend money and have a good time this summer. Russia is currently and will remain in charge of the battle front no matter how the west wants to spin it.
I'm afraid I have to agree that someone somewhere really wants an all-out war as a way of shifting blame for disastrous policies For now, there is still a grain of sanity. I hope it remains viable.
I like you hope and pray your correct. I really do but a nuclear capable government will release a nuke before it loses face or whatever people want to call it. Losing global reserve status may well be the catalyst for this.
If it releases a nuke it will lose a lot more than face, so let's keep hoping they know it, too.
Ok well I will say that perhaps not immediately but come 1st Jan, 2023 going on. The EU is still not ready to let go of Russian oil and gas just yet until it finds verified alternatives which they are working on right now.
Dear Irina, this is a Finnish daily but with a good perspective on the consequences of the European energy / sanctions policy: https://www.hs.fi/paakirjoitukset/art-2000008867063.html "Inflation will become the most important social and political theme in Finland and elsewhere in Europe in the near future."
You can run from reality but you can't hide from it forever.
Let me see...the sanctions won't start to bite until December (crude) and then February-March (refined products). So I'd say earliest in Q1 2023.
On the other hand, Russia may fold well before that. Or it could stop gas/oil delivery, just to show it can. And US mid-terms are coming on November. So it could happen as early as Sept-Oct.
Otherwise, let me just say - it's the easiest thing to maintain the (political) narrative. Europe and the US can do that ad infinitum. Maintaining social cohesion in face of galloping inflation, declining living standards and a potential deep recession - that'd be the real test.
Oh, I don't know, some parts of the narrative are already changing and I see it as a good sign.