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deletedJun 3, 2022Liked by Irina Slav
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Jun 3, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

Which year Irina? 🤔

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Jun 3, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

I don't have the background to make a credible prediction. Russia is in the driver's seat and according to most "sources" I have skimmed over is raking in the rubles, dollars and euros. Next up for market control are OPEC+ (or-), China and India. For the Greens of the planet this is all a dream come true forcing the planet to go renewable. So the first question is how cold will Europeans get and how much will Americans pay for gas before either has a regime change that will lead to a new deal with the Czar.

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So many moving parts. Will Russian oil find new buyers? Will a recession begin to weaken demand? Will Europe make proclamations about banning Russian energy all while continuing to buy Russian energy? maybe indirectly.

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Jun 3, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

Think for what you wish!

If globalists continue these ideological policies, the EFFECTS will spell their demise.

It causes pain, but it also causes change.

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Jun 3, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

Post elections country by country until critical mass of countries then they all change.

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The problem as I see it is - we can’t sanction oil countries and be at war with our own oil & gas industry at the same time. That’s just plain dumb.

Now about your question. Hmmm. Let’s see. California has endured the consequences and pain of insane public policy for decades without changing the way they vote. So I would say the West can endure incredible quantities of pain before we change our collective minds. My optimistic prediction to your question would be Jan 2025. But I’m afraid everything will be in shambles by then.

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International oil prices are rising but not in line with the magnitude of the problems that sanctions on such a major producer should have otherwise resulted in. I am not sure if I know the reason. Nevertheless, Buyers of Russian oil, unlike Iranian or Venezuelan buyers have to provide their own means of transportation and sanctions related documentations. Indian and Chinese buyers load oil in small to medium vessels and carry to bigger ships.

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Jun 3, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

Irina - Thank you very much for addressing the core global issue of energy flow. Unfortunately, lot of Americans here do not realize the importance of this issue and they have been indoctrinated to hate Putin and Russia by the mainstream media. One group of people really believe that Putin got Trump elected in 2016 and another groups still believes that they are fighting commies and are justified to continue this war. Although I teach energy engineering and thermodynamics, I have come to realize that reason and logic do not mean anything even for many educated people that I encounter in my daily interactions here. This is a tragedy of great power politics! please watch John Mearshimer videos. Energy flow is intrinsically connected to flow of power and cannot be decoupled from human social and psychological dimensions. Also remember the words of Henry Kissinger, the man himself spoke the truth! "To be an enemy of America is dangerous and to be friend is FATAL! This tells you the truth about the future of Europe.

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Jun 3, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

Late July

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Jun 3, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

At current trends, about 4-6 months from now. The embargo may not be changing Russian minds, but they are expending resources at a high rate (tell us the experts) and will need a break. Also, fighting through the winter is probably not part of the plan. In a few months, a face saving ceasefire/sanctions deal should be feasible. Things could definitely break before then, but it will be difficult to walk back with nothing to claim in return.

If things do break sooner, it is quite possible for US to ban oil exports (just a stroke of the pen before the elections) to contain prices. That gives most EU countries an out (there are already some agreed exceptions) and embargo falls apart.

What are the odds that US will ban exports?

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Jun 3, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

Irina - I agree with you! I anticipate things might begin to crumble in September and continue till December unless there is a change in the administration and geo-political scene. I just filled the gas today (6/3/2022) at $5.19 in a small university town here in US! Nations will need to cooperate and live in multi-polar reality!

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Jun 3, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

november is already mid term, the senile fool will be toast by then. my worry isn't that, it's they will push forward a full scale war to topple Putin and take Russia's assets back. never thought i'd say this, but i'm actually happy he has nuke deterrence. we'd easily be in WW3 if he had not.

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Jun 3, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

I’ll take under. You are too generous.

Central bankers cave, oil prices explode.

Politicians reverse course or risk revolution…

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November is a good bet - a meager harvest will be in. This, combined with unafforable (to many) heating costs and the an upcomin US election mean politicians will be desperate for any solution - ideology be damned.

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Jun 4, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

Back From Gulfport the fishing was fine!!! This is a tough one as the EU elites really could care less about the population. December is my call. If you have been keeping up with global politics the USA is pressuring OPEC to drop Russia as a member. So far OPEC told Biden to take a hike.

Russia is going to find a place to sell its oil the West be damned. Personally, I think, and this scares me someone will fire a nuke. War must happen in the Western political minds and we cannot have them losing face.

The truth is not something people want to see they want to spend money and have a good time this summer. Russia is currently and will remain in charge of the battle front no matter how the west wants to spin it.

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Ok well I will say that perhaps not immediately but come 1st Jan, 2023 going on. The EU is still not ready to let go of Russian oil and gas just yet until it finds verified alternatives which they are working on right now.

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Jun 7, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

Dear Irina, this is a Finnish daily but with a good perspective on the consequences of the European energy / sanctions policy: https://www.hs.fi/paakirjoitukset/art-2000008867063.html "Inflation will become the most important social and political theme in Finland and elsewhere in Europe in the near future."

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Jun 7, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

Let me see...the sanctions won't start to bite until December (crude) and then February-March (refined products). So I'd say earliest in Q1 2023.

On the other hand, Russia may fold well before that. Or it could stop gas/oil delivery, just to show it can. And US mid-terms are coming on November. So it could happen as early as Sept-Oct.

Otherwise, let me just say - it's the easiest thing to maintain the (political) narrative. Europe and the US can do that ad infinitum. Maintaining social cohesion in face of galloping inflation, declining living standards and a potential deep recession - that'd be the real test.

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