Thank you Irina, for these discussions. I'm new to your channel, but I enjoy the informative and balanced views. The speaker on the left (this is David?) states that there is no real energy crisis in the U.S. I've been following energy analyses on and off for a few years and prior to 2020 that was talk of peak shale oil in the States and peak crude globally. Analysts such as Simon Michaux, Alice J Friedemann and Gail Tverberg (and others such as Steve St Angelo and Louis Arnoux of the Hills Group) all estimated that to happen before Covid or the crises triggered by the Ukraine sanctions. So, from your perspective (if I may ask your view), would there not have been a global energy crisis anyway? To me it seems that events since 2020 have just multiplied the problems 10 fold.
If you mean peak oil supply, that wasn't going to happen. Forecasts of peak oil demand also turned out to be wrong, which anyone following the market dynamics could've foreseen. However, with energy transition policies on both sides of the Atlantic, the crisis was bound to happen. Remember the gas crunch in Europe started months before Russia's invasion of the Ukraine. Politicians seem to have forgotten this but there it is.The pandemic and everything that followed simply accelerated things.
Thank you for your reply, - yes I mean specifically liquid fossil fuels, mainly crude oil from OPEC countries and shale + tar sands from North America (excluding natural gas from Russia). The forecasts I saw from the analysts I mentioned referrred to new discoveries of oil deposits not happening much anymore, and shale industry running at losses and most shale already fracked + EROEI (profit margins) lower over the years, not making it profitible anymore.
Here are a couple of quotes;
Peak oil discovery was in 1962, since then rates of resource discovery has been declining persistently. New discoveries are limited: the exploration success rate in 2017 was a record low of 5%, and the average discovery size was 24mbbls. A projected range for average decline rate on post-peak production is 5-7%, equivalent to around 3-4.5mb/d of lost production every year. - Simon Michaux - (Oil from a Critical Raw Material Perspective [2019]) .
Globally, new oil discoveries have fallen for 6 years, with consumption of oil six times greater than discoveries from 2013 through 2019. And in the US, conventional oil and gas discoveries from 2016 to mid-2020 were at their lowest levels for 70 years. - Alice J. Friedemann (Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy [2021]) (P11).
Is your view that these analyses are not really valid, and if so, would you be able to direct me to sources showing ample supply. Would appreciate it very much as I'm currently tryimg to figure out whether peakoil is real or not.
Some have argued that the decline in new discoveries is due to a decline in investments, itself the result of the energy transition push. Saudi Arabia has been rather vocal about it. I wouldn't say these analyses are not valid but I am not a forecaster myself so I'm not sure how much my opinion counts. What I do know is that oil industry professionals have argued that from a technical standpoint, there can be mo such thing as peak oil supply. Whenever it becomes profitable to extract oil previously untappable, the technology will be developed that can do it. If, however, more production is being discouraged by other priorities, i.e. climate change, then production will shrink as investments are redirected. And if you don't take into account demand patterns, which the IEA and BP, for example, clearly didn't in their forecasts, you get a supply tighteness and higher prices.
The current energy transition: “It’s like moving to a new house without having a new house.” Awesome analogy!
Thank you Irina, for these discussions. I'm new to your channel, but I enjoy the informative and balanced views. The speaker on the left (this is David?) states that there is no real energy crisis in the U.S. I've been following energy analyses on and off for a few years and prior to 2020 that was talk of peak shale oil in the States and peak crude globally. Analysts such as Simon Michaux, Alice J Friedemann and Gail Tverberg (and others such as Steve St Angelo and Louis Arnoux of the Hills Group) all estimated that to happen before Covid or the crises triggered by the Ukraine sanctions. So, from your perspective (if I may ask your view), would there not have been a global energy crisis anyway? To me it seems that events since 2020 have just multiplied the problems 10 fold.
It's great to have you here!
If you mean peak oil supply, that wasn't going to happen. Forecasts of peak oil demand also turned out to be wrong, which anyone following the market dynamics could've foreseen. However, with energy transition policies on both sides of the Atlantic, the crisis was bound to happen. Remember the gas crunch in Europe started months before Russia's invasion of the Ukraine. Politicians seem to have forgotten this but there it is.The pandemic and everything that followed simply accelerated things.
Thank you for your reply, - yes I mean specifically liquid fossil fuels, mainly crude oil from OPEC countries and shale + tar sands from North America (excluding natural gas from Russia). The forecasts I saw from the analysts I mentioned referrred to new discoveries of oil deposits not happening much anymore, and shale industry running at losses and most shale already fracked + EROEI (profit margins) lower over the years, not making it profitible anymore.
Here are a couple of quotes;
Peak oil discovery was in 1962, since then rates of resource discovery has been declining persistently. New discoveries are limited: the exploration success rate in 2017 was a record low of 5%, and the average discovery size was 24mbbls. A projected range for average decline rate on post-peak production is 5-7%, equivalent to around 3-4.5mb/d of lost production every year. - Simon Michaux - (Oil from a Critical Raw Material Perspective [2019]) .
Globally, new oil discoveries have fallen for 6 years, with consumption of oil six times greater than discoveries from 2013 through 2019. And in the US, conventional oil and gas discoveries from 2016 to mid-2020 were at their lowest levels for 70 years. - Alice J. Friedemann (Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy [2021]) (P11).
Is your view that these analyses are not really valid, and if so, would you be able to direct me to sources showing ample supply. Would appreciate it very much as I'm currently tryimg to figure out whether peakoil is real or not.
J.J.
Some have argued that the decline in new discoveries is due to a decline in investments, itself the result of the energy transition push. Saudi Arabia has been rather vocal about it. I wouldn't say these analyses are not valid but I am not a forecaster myself so I'm not sure how much my opinion counts. What I do know is that oil industry professionals have argued that from a technical standpoint, there can be mo such thing as peak oil supply. Whenever it becomes profitable to extract oil previously untappable, the technology will be developed that can do it. If, however, more production is being discouraged by other priorities, i.e. climate change, then production will shrink as investments are redirected. And if you don't take into account demand patterns, which the IEA and BP, for example, clearly didn't in their forecasts, you get a supply tighteness and higher prices.