As always your crystal ball is so clear, shinny and clean! When us mere mortals can see the future coming down the road like a juggernaut and they the "climate gods" can't, it is somewhat hilarious if it wasn't so frightening and dangerous!
All very true. Another big "surprise" for the EV market is going to be when the impact of the frequent car carrier ship fires begins to affect marine insurance and they discover that they can't afford to ship EV's across oceans. There have been at least 10 major incidents in the past two decades, some resulting in complete sinking of huge ships (the fire was impossible to extinguish), others only in destroying decks on those ships. The retail consumer is already discovering that insurance for an EV costs several times (average Tesla insurance is $3,947 per year in the US) more than insurance for an ICE vehicle, because minor collision damage to an EV often results in the entire vehicle being totaled. Parts are hard to get and expensive, plus potential battery damage always factors into damage estimates. At present there is no extra cost for home insurance for an EV owner, but as that becomes more common I expect residential home insurers to add a premium for owning an EV that is charging inside or near the building due to the increased fire risk. The "surprise" will be that owning an EV is much more expensive than anyone thought.
in UK car insurers are already refusing the EV market slice, due to the fire hazard and technical analysis of battery damage in crashes being impossible to assess..... but the car makers have selling quotas, or get fined some 15K for _each_ unit under the target line.... but the EV sales are dropping so fast, they can't even push an EV painted in gold and covered in chocolate....
i'm just counting the minutes until a maker says it's cheaper to just close UK shop.... a bye-bye enough of this crap, you keep the fines and the pudding.
What?!?!? You mean EU is getting poor because wind/solar can't do the job? and LNG is now 5x more pricey than the russian pipe gas? and we got to pay the "green clean" tax to russia to buy their oil in India? and the whole industry is closing and running away to sunny shores?
Yes Irina, though it is not a new phenomenon. You know Cassandra.. not strange that Michael Burry chose the "nick" he did on Twitter.
It is a curse for both sides, it illuminates how fragile our ability to communicate (and be understood) really is. When we both try to achieve hubristic end states without even bothering to have a clear plan, and undermining the clarity of an already muddled language. Well, then we head for interesting times.
EU is between a rock and a hard place, it has few real friends and have offered few reasons to be friendly with it. On the one side it is good to see something so corrupt collapse, on the other side it is painful because of all the collateral damage to the "blind". Then again, it is an old subject that tend to result the same way.
Matthew 15:14 - Leave them; they are blind guides. If the blind lead the blind, both will fall into a pit.”
Though few will see the simple "common sense" in this.
Cheers, appreciate your efforts and writings, you do more to enlighten folks than myself.
After you've attempted to change the world's energy-power sources in a few decades it's pretty hard to backoff and say it was a poorly planned and unrealistic endeavor.
True, but you could slowly and gradually pretend you weren't trying to do anything of the sort. I think it's better than doubling down but what do I know.
Another bull’s eye, Irina. The eternal, obvious, unanswerable question... Why can’t they see this? When Pacific Gas and Electric went bankrupt in California the government officials who had mandated that they buy high and sell low were astonished and angry. Wall Street was caught by surprise. Everybody else saw it coming. The PG&E customers are still paying off the debt 20 years later.
I expect PG&E’s third bankruptcy in 2025. They don’t see it coming and they don’t learn from it.
"Non-experts" are often best equipped to see the obvious. Here's another great example. Way back in the late 1980s, during the horrific Japan asset bubble, ordinary people in the street knew there was something wrong - they knew there was "excess money" inflating everything. But according to Prof. Richard Werner in his excellent "Princes of the Yen": “Only economists, analysts, and those working in the financial markets or for real estate firms knew 'better.' They dismissed such simplistic analysis. Land prices were going up for far more complicated reasons than just excess money, they claimed. Ordinary people simply did not understand the intricacies of advanced financial technology.” Today, many "experts" seem to do their research inside a faulty knowledge system that does not let them see the obvious.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princes_of_the_Yen
Ah, the flawed belief that a serious issue/problem cannot be simple and it must be complicated, comprehensible only to people with specialised knowledge in the respective area. A very dangerous one, indeed.
Your writings are so enlightening. Thank you.
And fun, as in “when the solid waste hit the fan”.
Thank you both!
A well written reminder of some recent historical event and behaviors that many forget and/or ignore.
Thanks, Irina. Their inability to see is simple: ever since UN head Gutierrez said the "world is boiling," the steam is blurring their vision.
Excellent read, Irina. Thank you.
As always your crystal ball is so clear, shinny and clean! When us mere mortals can see the future coming down the road like a juggernaut and they the "climate gods" can't, it is somewhat hilarious if it wasn't so frightening and dangerous!
It does, indeed, invoke conflicting emotions, yes. :)
All very true. Another big "surprise" for the EV market is going to be when the impact of the frequent car carrier ship fires begins to affect marine insurance and they discover that they can't afford to ship EV's across oceans. There have been at least 10 major incidents in the past two decades, some resulting in complete sinking of huge ships (the fire was impossible to extinguish), others only in destroying decks on those ships. The retail consumer is already discovering that insurance for an EV costs several times (average Tesla insurance is $3,947 per year in the US) more than insurance for an ICE vehicle, because minor collision damage to an EV often results in the entire vehicle being totaled. Parts are hard to get and expensive, plus potential battery damage always factors into damage estimates. At present there is no extra cost for home insurance for an EV owner, but as that becomes more common I expect residential home insurers to add a premium for owning an EV that is charging inside or near the building due to the increased fire risk. The "surprise" will be that owning an EV is much more expensive than anyone thought.
in UK car insurers are already refusing the EV market slice, due to the fire hazard and technical analysis of battery damage in crashes being impossible to assess..... but the car makers have selling quotas, or get fined some 15K for _each_ unit under the target line.... but the EV sales are dropping so fast, they can't even push an EV painted in gold and covered in chocolate....
i'm just counting the minutes until a maker says it's cheaper to just close UK shop.... a bye-bye enough of this crap, you keep the fines and the pudding.
And after that, the gates are open..... >:)
I’ve heard anecdotally the car insurance issue and hoping you can point me to the source for the very specific number you posted. Thanks
That's actually something I'm planning to write about soon. Very interesting topic, insurers and the EV revolution.
No surprise at another excellent piece to lighten my morning.
Thank you, Bruce!
What?!?!? You mean EU is getting poor because wind/solar can't do the job? and LNG is now 5x more pricey than the russian pipe gas? and we got to pay the "green clean" tax to russia to buy their oil in India? and the whole industry is closing and running away to sunny shores?
QUICK!!!!! SEND MOAR BILLIONS TO UKRAINE!!!!
that will show them....
Shocking, I know. :D
Yes Irina, though it is not a new phenomenon. You know Cassandra.. not strange that Michael Burry chose the "nick" he did on Twitter.
It is a curse for both sides, it illuminates how fragile our ability to communicate (and be understood) really is. When we both try to achieve hubristic end states without even bothering to have a clear plan, and undermining the clarity of an already muddled language. Well, then we head for interesting times.
EU is between a rock and a hard place, it has few real friends and have offered few reasons to be friendly with it. On the one side it is good to see something so corrupt collapse, on the other side it is painful because of all the collateral damage to the "blind". Then again, it is an old subject that tend to result the same way.
Matthew 15:14 - Leave them; they are blind guides. If the blind lead the blind, both will fall into a pit.”
Though few will see the simple "common sense" in this.
Cheers, appreciate your efforts and writings, you do more to enlighten folks than myself.
After you've attempted to change the world's energy-power sources in a few decades it's pretty hard to backoff and say it was a poorly planned and unrealistic endeavor.
True, but you could slowly and gradually pretend you weren't trying to do anything of the sort. I think it's better than doubling down but what do I know.
The famous car You Tuber Schmee did a video last month about a week in LA with a Rivian. A must watch for anyone thinking about buying an EV.
Another bull’s eye, Irina. The eternal, obvious, unanswerable question... Why can’t they see this? When Pacific Gas and Electric went bankrupt in California the government officials who had mandated that they buy high and sell low were astonished and angry. Wall Street was caught by surprise. Everybody else saw it coming. The PG&E customers are still paying off the debt 20 years later.
I expect PG&E’s third bankruptcy in 2025. They don’t see it coming and they don’t learn from it.
Great article. I like your dry humor while you keep us informed. I didn't know anything about the broken chargers.
Neither did I. It didn't occur to me they can break so easily. I do recall similar problems of EV driers in the UK, though.
"Non-experts" are often best equipped to see the obvious. Here's another great example. Way back in the late 1980s, during the horrific Japan asset bubble, ordinary people in the street knew there was something wrong - they knew there was "excess money" inflating everything. But according to Prof. Richard Werner in his excellent "Princes of the Yen": “Only economists, analysts, and those working in the financial markets or for real estate firms knew 'better.' They dismissed such simplistic analysis. Land prices were going up for far more complicated reasons than just excess money, they claimed. Ordinary people simply did not understand the intricacies of advanced financial technology.” Today, many "experts" seem to do their research inside a faulty knowledge system that does not let them see the obvious.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princes_of_the_Yen
Ah, the flawed belief that a serious issue/problem cannot be simple and it must be complicated, comprehensible only to people with specialised knowledge in the respective area. A very dangerous one, indeed.
Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller...
I call it chasing the net-zero dragon.