Britain is about to drown in renewable energy in a few short years thanks to ambitious plans by the government to bring the share of low-carbon energy generation to 95% of the total by 2030. A lot of this energy could end up unused unless the same people envisioning miles and miles of wind turbines and solar panels don’t start envisioning batteries as well. Welcome to Curtailmentworld.
When I’m driving around Texas on days when the wind is optimal for wind generation, I’m amazed that maybe half the turbines are not turning. I immediately wonder what the return on investment looks like on an asset that doesn’t work when the wind doesn’t blow and also doesn’t work half the time when the wind IS blowing. But maybe I shouldn’t say anything. It is probably going to cost more to bolster the grid capacity than the money we are losing to “Curtailmentworld.”
I miss the days when economic decisions were made based on the most efficient use of resources.
I suppose this us where "green hydrogen" comes from? Take a resource that produces at 5:1 ROI. Energy is neither created nor destroyed so we take a grossly inefficient source to split one the most tightly bound molecules and the net effects are what?
Um. Net lower emissions from human activity overall globally, with a bit of luck, for about 20 seconds a decade? I remain baffled by the business case for green hydrogen.
Here is a recent public meeting of the minds by Corporate Knights in Canada. At 38 min is Diana Fox Carney, the wife of Mark Carney.
For example, the slide at 23:00 is supported by Engel at 40:40 that wind and solar will be the backbone of electrification which will replace fossil fuels.
I wonder if you sent them a link to your substack articles along with questions it might encourage them to engage in discussion about the large differences between your perception and theirs?
They definitely want the world to be a better place, I can't imagine why they would not want to consider your concerns to help ensure the right steps are taken...
I wonder if the Greenies see all of these horror stories as good news. A fortunate crisis forcing us all to convert to their Green Religion? I would like to see an analysis of green leadership in Western countries that included their class, income level and source of income (.gov, .ngo etc).
Smart devices need to be deployed where you don’t get to use your dishwasher or laundry when you want … but when excess power is available. It’s a massive mindset shift and people will
Hate it but it’s where we are today. And like climate change- adapting is the best path ahead.
Oh, yes, this is a topic that deserves its own article -- the forced mindset shift. There was a hint about people being told when to charge their EVs, for instance -- during peak wind/solar production.
We shouldn't be surprised at wholly illogical (and expensive) outcomes when policy is driven by politicians who are too frightened to face into the Mob. Top down, centralised planning cannot ever accommodate the complexity of the real world which grows organically at a natural pace. This blunt instrument planning misses all sorts of important issues as your article shows. Who'd have thought we might need to expand the grid if we increase supply massively??? Cracking article again Irina.
We had about 60 years in Europe to see that centralised planning does not work but hey, it wasn't Western Europe that tried it. They seem to think they can do better with it. In truth, the only place where centralised planning has worked to an extent is China but China is a very special case.
Irina: Your conclusion stands out, "The level of complexity that the energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables involves is so high, I suspect most of us cannot comprehend all of it. I certainly can’t but I keep trying because I like 1,000-piece jigsaw puzzles. Sadly, it appears that the individuals in charge of the transitions don’t like jugsaw puzzles at all." What is happening in most USA cases is the decisions are being made by woke left bureaucrats and politicians almost always based on their "feelings" and their terror (don't you know the earth dies by 2030 etc.). So those non knowing are overlapping unusual, non fitting, sometimes stupid decisions on the generators and grid operators. What happens is the so called solid grid is not anymore and it's reliant on generation that the grid was not designed to support. But unfortunately (but expected) the woke left will blame non renewables when the brownouts and blackouts occur. And with this blame they will scream for more renewables.
Same in Europe: electricity bills rising constantly, people getting effectively penalised for not putting up rooftop solar on their houses, and, the latest, shorter approval times for renewable installations. That will certainly end well.
Very informative article as usual. I'm attaching a link to something I saw in my inbox this morning regarding pumped thermal storage projects in Bulgaria - I'm sure you are already aware of these but it would be interesting to hear your thoughts...
It's about a particular Boeing 747 but listen very carefully to the way they describe the plane's cargo, i.e., lithium batteries (and e-race cars).
"unpredictably dangerous"
And, at one point, they show an IATA label slapped on the side of the batteries: "UN 3480".
IATA have very strict rules on the air transport of lithium batteries.
The larger batteries are, the more dangerous they become. In addition, the manufacture, transport, and disposal / recycling of large batteries is dangerous, too.
We'll be seeing millions upon millions of dead batteries from EVs, solar farms, and wind farms hitting the disposal / recycling industries. You think plastics are a problem? Just wait.
Ultimately, the sourcing of minerals for batteries - tearing the land apart to find those minerals - will make the Exxon Valdez spill look like kindergarten.
The worst part? What with our governments all in on EVs, solar farms, and wind farms, if things go south, who's going to hold them accountable?
Going forward under production will be more of a problem than over production. Over production you can curtail but with under production you get blackouts (that is without fossil fuel backup). Over the last 3 months UK electric generation from wind has averaged 175 gwh / day representing 22% of the UK's total consumption. The challenge is that the daily low was 25 gwh /day representing 3% of consumption. Additionally during this period there has been 2 occasions where the wind generation has been 10% or less of the total daily consumption. Batteries...Moss landing is one of largest battery storage projects at .4 gigawatts and 1.6 gwhrs. This represents 1% of the current average daily wind generation. Can't imagine what this will look like as they try to get to 95% low carbon generation....
Amazing writing Irina, many thanks! And what's even more amazing (or alarming...you choose) that there's literally no awareness of this problem in Europe. Certainly not at the political level which keeps raising the renewable generation targets like there's no consequence for that. We'll be very surprised very soon...
Thank you, Viktor. It is both amazing and very alarming. Those at the top simply refuse to see the facts. many will be surprised, indeed. The rest of us will get depressed because we were right all along but there's no pleasure in being right about that.
When I’m driving around Texas on days when the wind is optimal for wind generation, I’m amazed that maybe half the turbines are not turning. I immediately wonder what the return on investment looks like on an asset that doesn’t work when the wind doesn’t blow and also doesn’t work half the time when the wind IS blowing. But maybe I shouldn’t say anything. It is probably going to cost more to bolster the grid capacity than the money we are losing to “Curtailmentworld.”
I miss the days when economic decisions were made based on the most efficient use of resources.
So do I, Ken. Very good questions you're asking there but we're o the other side of the looking glass, so answers won't be forthcoming.
I suppose this us where "green hydrogen" comes from? Take a resource that produces at 5:1 ROI. Energy is neither created nor destroyed so we take a grossly inefficient source to split one the most tightly bound molecules and the net effects are what?
Um. Net lower emissions from human activity overall globally, with a bit of luck, for about 20 seconds a decade? I remain baffled by the business case for green hydrogen.
Here is a recent public meeting of the minds by Corporate Knights in Canada. At 38 min is Diana Fox Carney, the wife of Mark Carney.
For example, the slide at 23:00 is supported by Engel at 40:40 that wind and solar will be the backbone of electrification which will replace fossil fuels.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VrAnnzOY2U
I wonder if you sent them a link to your substack articles along with questions it might encourage them to engage in discussion about the large differences between your perception and theirs?
They definitely want the world to be a better place, I can't imagine why they would not want to consider your concerns to help ensure the right steps are taken...
I wonder if the Greenies see all of these horror stories as good news. A fortunate crisis forcing us all to convert to their Green Religion? I would like to see an analysis of green leadership in Western countries that included their class, income level and source of income (.gov, .ngo etc).
So obvious when you point it out, but I had never heard that particular criticism before. Very good points!
Smart devices need to be deployed where you don’t get to use your dishwasher or laundry when you want … but when excess power is available. It’s a massive mindset shift and people will
Hate it but it’s where we are today. And like climate change- adapting is the best path ahead.
Oh, yes, this is a topic that deserves its own article -- the forced mindset shift. There was a hint about people being told when to charge their EVs, for instance -- during peak wind/solar production.
We shouldn't be surprised at wholly illogical (and expensive) outcomes when policy is driven by politicians who are too frightened to face into the Mob. Top down, centralised planning cannot ever accommodate the complexity of the real world which grows organically at a natural pace. This blunt instrument planning misses all sorts of important issues as your article shows. Who'd have thought we might need to expand the grid if we increase supply massively??? Cracking article again Irina.
We had about 60 years in Europe to see that centralised planning does not work but hey, it wasn't Western Europe that tried it. They seem to think they can do better with it. In truth, the only place where centralised planning has worked to an extent is China but China is a very special case.
Irina: Your conclusion stands out, "The level of complexity that the energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables involves is so high, I suspect most of us cannot comprehend all of it. I certainly can’t but I keep trying because I like 1,000-piece jigsaw puzzles. Sadly, it appears that the individuals in charge of the transitions don’t like jugsaw puzzles at all." What is happening in most USA cases is the decisions are being made by woke left bureaucrats and politicians almost always based on their "feelings" and their terror (don't you know the earth dies by 2030 etc.). So those non knowing are overlapping unusual, non fitting, sometimes stupid decisions on the generators and grid operators. What happens is the so called solid grid is not anymore and it's reliant on generation that the grid was not designed to support. But unfortunately (but expected) the woke left will blame non renewables when the brownouts and blackouts occur. And with this blame they will scream for more renewables.
Same in Europe: electricity bills rising constantly, people getting effectively penalised for not putting up rooftop solar on their houses, and, the latest, shorter approval times for renewable installations. That will certainly end well.
"One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results". - Milton Friedman
There does seem to be a huge big emotional focus on the intentions, now that you mentioned this quote. Thanks!
Very informative article as usual. I'm attaching a link to something I saw in my inbox this morning regarding pumped thermal storage projects in Bulgaria - I'm sure you are already aware of these but it would be interesting to hear your thoughts...
https://www.energy-storage.news/nuclear-power-company-westinghouse-to-build-2gwh-pumped-heat-storage-in-bulgaria/
Thank you, Sandro. I'll put this on my to-do list.
Speaking of batteries, I suggest a viewing of this video:
"Boeing 747-8F Cargo Jumbo Jet - Mighty Airplanes" youtube
It's about a particular Boeing 747 but listen very carefully to the way they describe the plane's cargo, i.e., lithium batteries (and e-race cars).
"unpredictably dangerous"
And, at one point, they show an IATA label slapped on the side of the batteries: "UN 3480".
IATA have very strict rules on the air transport of lithium batteries.
The larger batteries are, the more dangerous they become. In addition, the manufacture, transport, and disposal / recycling of large batteries is dangerous, too.
We'll be seeing millions upon millions of dead batteries from EVs, solar farms, and wind farms hitting the disposal / recycling industries. You think plastics are a problem? Just wait.
Ultimately, the sourcing of minerals for batteries - tearing the land apart to find those minerals - will make the Exxon Valdez spill look like kindergarten.
The worst part? What with our governments all in on EVs, solar farms, and wind farms, if things go south, who's going to hold them accountable?
This is what annoys me the most -- they'll mess up, they'll drown the world in waste and they'll be long gone to be held accountable.
Going forward under production will be more of a problem than over production. Over production you can curtail but with under production you get blackouts (that is without fossil fuel backup). Over the last 3 months UK electric generation from wind has averaged 175 gwh / day representing 22% of the UK's total consumption. The challenge is that the daily low was 25 gwh /day representing 3% of consumption. Additionally during this period there has been 2 occasions where the wind generation has been 10% or less of the total daily consumption. Batteries...Moss landing is one of largest battery storage projects at .4 gigawatts and 1.6 gwhrs. This represents 1% of the current average daily wind generation. Can't imagine what this will look like as they try to get to 95% low carbon generation....
Good point. I have been wondering what the people who run the grid think about all this shift to wind and solar, not just in the UK but everywhere.
Amazing writing Irina, many thanks! And what's even more amazing (or alarming...you choose) that there's literally no awareness of this problem in Europe. Certainly not at the political level which keeps raising the renewable generation targets like there's no consequence for that. We'll be very surprised very soon...
Thank you, Viktor. It is both amazing and very alarming. Those at the top simply refuse to see the facts. many will be surprised, indeed. The rest of us will get depressed because we were right all along but there's no pleasure in being right about that.