Note: The above term was coined by my friend Tom Kirkman in a conversation about the energy transition on LinkedIn. You have my profuse and eternal gratitude for this jewel, Tom. When a couple of months ago I decided to get really serious about this newsletter I started to catch up on my longer-form energy-related reading. Thanks to generous researchers who contacted me in order to share their work I learned a lot more than I ever thought I might want to learn about renewable energy. And that’s not all.
For some years I am stunned by the power of narrative on people - I never imagined that, I always took as granted the fact that modern people can ask questions and seek the reality. But now I tend to agree with U. Eco who said something along this line: "The world is obsessed with plans, if you give one the people throw themselves on it like a pack of wolves. You invent something, and the people believe that. You don’t need to arouse more imaginary than there it is." Unfortunatelly the narrative is one thing and the reality is different-one day people will discover the "cold" reality. Thank you for the analysis, it is a pleasure to read you.
I have been reading your Substack articles for a couple of months now, as part of an effort to diversify the media I consume surrounding the debate on how to address the impacts of our ongoing consumption of fossil fuels. I studied engineering and sustainable energy at university and I now work as a recruiter for the oil & gas industry.
Are you totally opposed to the roll out of renewable energy and low-carbon technologies, including what you refer to as "liquified natural wind"? LNW does have a nice ring to it, but I don't think you "almost seriously believe" such a term will ever be used, terms like wind-to-hydrogen (W2H2) and hydrogen-from-wind are well established. It may not be hyperbole to you but I can't see it as anything else.
I am not opposed to continuing the use of fossil fuels by any means, not just because I could be out of a job if we did, but because I know how important North Sea exploration is for the livelihoods of the 100,000 people it employs in Scotland, along with their communities and families. The short-term economic and social benefits are undeniable (or at least they were, I am currently struggling to pay my extortionate energy bills), but the very real perils and long-term negative environmental consequences cannot be denied either.
You talk about a divorce between physical reality and green energy ambitions but there has been a divorce between physical reality and the ambitions of fossil fuel companies for decades. Fossil Fuel companies are just about coming around to accepting the science of climate change publicly, finally accepting the over-consumption of fossil fuels has lead to destabilising the climate. However, we now see they resort to greenwashing to allow them to continue to fly in the face of what is essentially basic thermodynamics.
For me, future energy systems must have a considerable share of energy storage technologies, renewables, oil, gas, nuclear and the rest. Ultimately this equates to a move away from dependence on fossil fuels and towards low-carbon technologies. A complete transition may not be technically possible but business as usual is unacceptable. Do you share this view?
I will continue to read your articles and I hope to be able to use them as an open forum to engage with yourself and others. Please do not presume I am conceited, I simply have an alternative view to you and I wish to understand what you stand for. I'm sure as I read more of your articles I will have a clearer idea of what exactly that is.
Good Day Irina: I find today’s discussion quite sad and hilarious at the same time. You are correct with the statement about talking to the woke green left, “it’s like talking to a deaf person”. The woke green left is working entirely on “feelings” not truths. I have been involved in the Renewables Market (first wind, now solar and BESS) for 21 years now in the USA. I worked for Vestas or a few years and for the past 19 years have worked for a “specialty” distributor based in California that focuses on Renewables New Construction and Operations & Maintenance needs. My concentration for the last five years has been on Medium/High voltage parts (and solutions) associated with Substations, transmission lines and collector systems. I work primarily with the O&M needs with a little work in the New Construction field, but we have a separate larger team that works the New Construction market hard. Daily I must inform my customers that lead times are long at 30 weeks or more and to expect said lead times to grow. Costs are rising weekly, and it does not matter whether product is manufactured in North America feed stock supplies from other countries (think China for one) are affecting all sort of delays. Then there is the shortage of skilled staff (think Electrical Engineers and Technicians) that are needed for all the New Construction and O&M support. Throw in “regulated” utility build outs and the shortage of parts and people get even more divergent. Then watch the sexy installations now in play (Offshore wind) take over the dynamic and further complicate the parts and people needs. I just do not know how all the schemes and dreams of the NON-FOSSIL FUELS world will come to be and at the cheap costs they promise (and will fail at delivering). One just can’t turn the switch on these things overnight. Fear doubt and uncertainty driven unnecessarily by the media and political left does not help the situation at all.
Another brilliant article. I can see you are worried that our politicians seem to always gravitate to those with the loudest voice, but I cling to the hope that physics and money will win in the long run. The next 12mths will be crucial. Also if anyone cares to do even a cursory check on the nonsense coming out of Guterres mouth they would realise the IPCC game is up and 1.5°C will be exceeded (i.e. estimates of global CO2 allowance will be exceeded before 2030 and the catastrophe arrives....). I, of course, think their logic is nonsense but by their own calcs the game is over. I explained the IPCC logic to a friend of mine who's a passionate believer in the forthcoming climate catastrophe and he accepted the math and that 1.5°C would be exceeded. But he couldn't bring himself to stop supporting mitigation (like renewable energy) instead of adaption. He just couldn't let go even though he could clearly follow the math. I tried to reassure him that there is no forthcoming catastrophe but he's still convinced (even though there's no signs yet). I've joked with him for yrs that the doomsayers are always wrong with their predictions and he agrees, but he thinks the precautionary principle is worth it. I could only agree if it's at zero or very low, cost and with the catastrophisers record on predictions it's not worth the gargantuan sums of money that are at stake. Physics and money will win out in the end.
Thank you for sharing this. It is nice to know I'm not the only frightened person out there. What do you do when the foundations of your tribe are purposefully eroded out from beneath you by your own tribe? To go, perhaps a bit too, metaphorical.
Energy is the foundation of civilization. The USA spent a good deal in the 30s and 40s arranging to provide reliable affordable electricity to everyone. And now these jokers -- no not jokers -- evil, selfish, conniving bastards are doing everything they can to undermine that structure and take away reliable power for everyone. Unless we are very lucky, "demand management" will become a real thing.
I was called a Luddite the other day for opposing Demand Management. Yet, I'm trying to preserve modern conveniences. The advocates of Demand Management, and the intermittent generation that force its use, would take us back to the days of unreliable electricity.
Humans are social animals. Social animals derive a sense of well being from knowing they belong to a structure or tribe in the most simple sense. What security is there when your own tribe is trying tear the foundations of their own livelihood out from underneath everyone.
Frightening indeed. Sometimes I wish I didn't understand what is happening as clearly as I do....
"What I can say is that the biggest lesson I have ever learned in my life was to question the information I receive from the media".
You are perfectly right, Irina. We need to question now, more than ever before, the media narratives by sifting through each one just to find accuracy and balance.
I didn't think it was a joke. The ultimate oxymoron is green hydrogen. Wake me up when it breaks even on ROEI and becomes positive. I'll out sleep Rip Van Winkle. Anybody know who he is anymore? Anybody? Anybody.....? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhiCFdWeQfA (and we're going to learn about Mercantilism and de-globalization shortly as well. In relative terms, and at great cost the USA will be harmed the least, but I digress...
It seems you have stumbled upon the great fact that politicians and policymakers are the best comedians, preachers and fiction writers among us...
For some years I am stunned by the power of narrative on people - I never imagined that, I always took as granted the fact that modern people can ask questions and seek the reality. But now I tend to agree with U. Eco who said something along this line: "The world is obsessed with plans, if you give one the people throw themselves on it like a pack of wolves. You invent something, and the people believe that. You don’t need to arouse more imaginary than there it is." Unfortunatelly the narrative is one thing and the reality is different-one day people will discover the "cold" reality. Thank you for the analysis, it is a pleasure to read you.
Are you not convinced that the green=good intentions of our leaders will guide us down the righteous path?
I think there is a proverb about that.
I have been reading your Substack articles for a couple of months now, as part of an effort to diversify the media I consume surrounding the debate on how to address the impacts of our ongoing consumption of fossil fuels. I studied engineering and sustainable energy at university and I now work as a recruiter for the oil & gas industry.
Are you totally opposed to the roll out of renewable energy and low-carbon technologies, including what you refer to as "liquified natural wind"? LNW does have a nice ring to it, but I don't think you "almost seriously believe" such a term will ever be used, terms like wind-to-hydrogen (W2H2) and hydrogen-from-wind are well established. It may not be hyperbole to you but I can't see it as anything else.
I am not opposed to continuing the use of fossil fuels by any means, not just because I could be out of a job if we did, but because I know how important North Sea exploration is for the livelihoods of the 100,000 people it employs in Scotland, along with their communities and families. The short-term economic and social benefits are undeniable (or at least they were, I am currently struggling to pay my extortionate energy bills), but the very real perils and long-term negative environmental consequences cannot be denied either.
You talk about a divorce between physical reality and green energy ambitions but there has been a divorce between physical reality and the ambitions of fossil fuel companies for decades. Fossil Fuel companies are just about coming around to accepting the science of climate change publicly, finally accepting the over-consumption of fossil fuels has lead to destabilising the climate. However, we now see they resort to greenwashing to allow them to continue to fly in the face of what is essentially basic thermodynamics.
For me, future energy systems must have a considerable share of energy storage technologies, renewables, oil, gas, nuclear and the rest. Ultimately this equates to a move away from dependence on fossil fuels and towards low-carbon technologies. A complete transition may not be technically possible but business as usual is unacceptable. Do you share this view?
I will continue to read your articles and I hope to be able to use them as an open forum to engage with yourself and others. Please do not presume I am conceited, I simply have an alternative view to you and I wish to understand what you stand for. I'm sure as I read more of your articles I will have a clearer idea of what exactly that is.
Thanks
Good Day Irina: I find today’s discussion quite sad and hilarious at the same time. You are correct with the statement about talking to the woke green left, “it’s like talking to a deaf person”. The woke green left is working entirely on “feelings” not truths. I have been involved in the Renewables Market (first wind, now solar and BESS) for 21 years now in the USA. I worked for Vestas or a few years and for the past 19 years have worked for a “specialty” distributor based in California that focuses on Renewables New Construction and Operations & Maintenance needs. My concentration for the last five years has been on Medium/High voltage parts (and solutions) associated with Substations, transmission lines and collector systems. I work primarily with the O&M needs with a little work in the New Construction field, but we have a separate larger team that works the New Construction market hard. Daily I must inform my customers that lead times are long at 30 weeks or more and to expect said lead times to grow. Costs are rising weekly, and it does not matter whether product is manufactured in North America feed stock supplies from other countries (think China for one) are affecting all sort of delays. Then there is the shortage of skilled staff (think Electrical Engineers and Technicians) that are needed for all the New Construction and O&M support. Throw in “regulated” utility build outs and the shortage of parts and people get even more divergent. Then watch the sexy installations now in play (Offshore wind) take over the dynamic and further complicate the parts and people needs. I just do not know how all the schemes and dreams of the NON-FOSSIL FUELS world will come to be and at the cheap costs they promise (and will fail at delivering). One just can’t turn the switch on these things overnight. Fear doubt and uncertainty driven unnecessarily by the media and political left does not help the situation at all.
Another brilliant article. I can see you are worried that our politicians seem to always gravitate to those with the loudest voice, but I cling to the hope that physics and money will win in the long run. The next 12mths will be crucial. Also if anyone cares to do even a cursory check on the nonsense coming out of Guterres mouth they would realise the IPCC game is up and 1.5°C will be exceeded (i.e. estimates of global CO2 allowance will be exceeded before 2030 and the catastrophe arrives....). I, of course, think their logic is nonsense but by their own calcs the game is over. I explained the IPCC logic to a friend of mine who's a passionate believer in the forthcoming climate catastrophe and he accepted the math and that 1.5°C would be exceeded. But he couldn't bring himself to stop supporting mitigation (like renewable energy) instead of adaption. He just couldn't let go even though he could clearly follow the math. I tried to reassure him that there is no forthcoming catastrophe but he's still convinced (even though there's no signs yet). I've joked with him for yrs that the doomsayers are always wrong with their predictions and he agrees, but he thinks the precautionary principle is worth it. I could only agree if it's at zero or very low, cost and with the catastrophisers record on predictions it's not worth the gargantuan sums of money that are at stake. Physics and money will win out in the end.
Thank you for sharing this. It is nice to know I'm not the only frightened person out there. What do you do when the foundations of your tribe are purposefully eroded out from beneath you by your own tribe? To go, perhaps a bit too, metaphorical.
Energy is the foundation of civilization. The USA spent a good deal in the 30s and 40s arranging to provide reliable affordable electricity to everyone. And now these jokers -- no not jokers -- evil, selfish, conniving bastards are doing everything they can to undermine that structure and take away reliable power for everyone. Unless we are very lucky, "demand management" will become a real thing.
I was called a Luddite the other day for opposing Demand Management. Yet, I'm trying to preserve modern conveniences. The advocates of Demand Management, and the intermittent generation that force its use, would take us back to the days of unreliable electricity.
Humans are social animals. Social animals derive a sense of well being from knowing they belong to a structure or tribe in the most simple sense. What security is there when your own tribe is trying tear the foundations of their own livelihood out from underneath everyone.
Frightening indeed. Sometimes I wish I didn't understand what is happening as clearly as I do....
"What I can say is that the biggest lesson I have ever learned in my life was to question the information I receive from the media".
You are perfectly right, Irina. We need to question now, more than ever before, the media narratives by sifting through each one just to find accuracy and balance.
A few days ago, I gave this piece of yours a like. Now - Irina, this is Grattan,
https://twitter.com/Grattan_H/
https://twitter.com/Grattan_H/status/1475632037411315715
(I'd do a 'Grattan, this is Irina' one of these days.)
Cheers
I didn't think it was a joke. The ultimate oxymoron is green hydrogen. Wake me up when it breaks even on ROEI and becomes positive. I'll out sleep Rip Van Winkle. Anybody know who he is anymore? Anybody? Anybody.....? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhiCFdWeQfA (and we're going to learn about Mercantilism and de-globalization shortly as well. In relative terms, and at great cost the USA will be harmed the least, but I digress...