The European Union has done it. It has overcome opposition from Central Europe and has managed to remain united in the face of adversity, that is, Russia making money from the export of its fossil fuels.
There is a lesson here from 1970's oil price controls. It all looks pretty much the same in a tank. Where did it come from one may ask? The certificate of origin says one place, but who really knows? I was a crude buyer for a refinery that turned a blind eye to certificate swapping. We made a fortune. All goods will eventually clear the market at a price. Cheers
"Then, of course, there is the question of whether the EU will not actually continue to import Russian crude and products..."
Sanctions only hit the ships so the pipes still carry gas. That is of course until Russia decides to turn of the taps off for those EU nations who don't want to pay in Rubles. Next down the line I hear is Denmark and the Netherlands.
great stack. honestly, my foray into understanding energy markets better this past year, while somewhat lucrative, has been depressing. i like oil better when it was just oil. no russian? no problem, just get "oil" some place else! i don't expect politicians to actually know what they are talking about. i do expect them to consult real domain experts - seems either they don't, or they ignore, or the "experts" are just selling them what they want to hear. most "experts" are grifters at this point.
I think this is unfair on experts, especially if you know how the European Commission (or any government really) works. The political level clearly knew about EU dependency on Russian fossil fuels, they knew about tight markets, they knew about the consequences. BUT the decision was a political-moral one.
Yes, shale oil on its own won't work, but fuels made with sour grades will be just fine, judging by the current fuel export picture. Not sure Mexico has enough crude to export to Europe, especially with the government's plan for limiting exports in favour of local refining.
Oh...brilliant, as always, but boy, o boy, how did that "Central European sucklings" of Russian pipeline oil hurt. It is true, though, and basically, considering the dependency, there's nothing else to do than what Orban did.
There is a lesson here from 1970's oil price controls. It all looks pretty much the same in a tank. Where did it come from one may ask? The certificate of origin says one place, but who really knows? I was a crude buyer for a refinery that turned a blind eye to certificate swapping. We made a fortune. All goods will eventually clear the market at a price. Cheers
It makes sense, really. Where there's demand, there will be supply, one way or another. Thanks for confirming it.
Thanks, great read again!
"If stupidity got us into this mess, then I'm sure it will get us out"...this is how I have summarized this post in my mind.
Whatever your favourite drink is, have a couple on me.This is brilliant! May I quote you?
Lol sure, although I doubt that's truly original and I'm sure my biased brain picked it up from somewhere or someone.
FYI, I don't drink alcohol but I'll take a protein smoothie thank you! ;)
I make a mean smoothie, have two! Original or not, it was dead-on.
"Then, of course, there is the question of whether the EU will not actually continue to import Russian crude and products..."
Sanctions only hit the ships so the pipes still carry gas. That is of course until Russia decides to turn of the taps off for those EU nations who don't want to pay in Rubles. Next down the line I hear is Denmark and the Netherlands.
great stack. honestly, my foray into understanding energy markets better this past year, while somewhat lucrative, has been depressing. i like oil better when it was just oil. no russian? no problem, just get "oil" some place else! i don't expect politicians to actually know what they are talking about. i do expect them to consult real domain experts - seems either they don't, or they ignore, or the "experts" are just selling them what they want to hear. most "experts" are grifters at this point.
Yeah, it's very depressing to see facts and common sense being ignored so pointedly.
I think this is unfair on experts, especially if you know how the European Commission (or any government really) works. The political level clearly knew about EU dependency on Russian fossil fuels, they knew about tight markets, they knew about the consequences. BUT the decision was a political-moral one.
and what about the API gravity of that shale oil? it is not around 30 neither it is medium sour, but some Olmeca and Istmo mixes from Mexico are
Yes, shale oil on its own won't work, but fuels made with sour grades will be just fine, judging by the current fuel export picture. Not sure Mexico has enough crude to export to Europe, especially with the government's plan for limiting exports in favour of local refining.
Another great piece. I love finding these in my e-mail in the morning.
I'm really happy to hear this. Thank you!
Oh...brilliant, as always, but boy, o boy, how did that "Central European sucklings" of Russian pipeline oil hurt. It is true, though, and basically, considering the dependency, there's nothing else to do than what Orban did.