Headlines: January 2025

The year is off to a really strong start, so it’s time for another round of headlines that will remain for posterity and maybe get used in future research on why and how the energy transition didn’t quite take place the way it was supposed to. I will be using some of these in future Substacks but for now, just the quick fun.

New York City lawsuit against Exxon, BP, Shell over climate change dismissed

In a decision on Tuesday, state Supreme Court Justice Anar Patel said the city could not claim its climate-conscious residents were sensitive to how fossil fuels cause climate change, only to then be duped by the oil companies' failure to disclose how their fossil fuel products contributed to it.

It is truly impressive to what lengths NYC lawyers are ready to go to extract some money from Big Oil, as in, not great lengths at all. They thought they could say anything, no matter how ridiculous, and the court will swallow it. A teachable moment.

Renault 2024 sales volumes grow 1.3%, helped by hybrids

Renault, which mainly sells in Europe, said it sold 2.26 million vehicles, with a growing share made up of hybrids and electric vehicles that helped it lift sales by 6.1% in the fourth quarter.

I sense an awkward moment looming over the car industry. That would be the moment they are forced to admit hybrids make sense where EVs don’t. It will probably happen as soon as this year. Because…

A disaster:' Auto sector cries foul after Ottawa ends EV rebates but keeps sales mandate

On Friday, Transport Canada said it was pausing the iZEV program, but offered no details as to when or even why.

On another web page, however, Transport Canada indicated that there was more than $71 million remaining to fund the EV incentive purchase program. On Monday morning, the department sent an email to auto groups announcing that in fact the program had run out of funds on Jan. 12.

They ran out of money, they did not expect it and they tried to pretend they hadn’t run out of money because it was too embarrassing. The automakers’ position is no less embarrassing. They could’ve said something earlier. Sure, it would’ve been dismissed as greenwashing or something but now they’d have had the chance to say “We told you so”. Now, they don’t.

EIA expects oil prices to be under pressure from oversupply in 2025, 2026

Oil prices will be under pressure over the next two years as global production growth outpaces demand, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday in its Short-Term Energy Outlook report.

The EIA is firmly on the path to IEAdom in information manipulation by presenting assumptions as facts. The STEO report is fraught with evidence, such as the assumption that OPEC+ will start bringing back production to the market this year, even though it has repeatedly said it wouldn’t until the price is right, and the outright falsehood that oil demand growth used to be higher before the pandemic. I’ve addressed the EIA problem in a bit more detail here.

Six EU countries call for lowering of G7 price cap on Russian oil

Six European Union countries on Monday called on the European Commission to lower the $60 per barrel price cap put on Russian oil by G7 countries, arguing it would reduce Moscow's revenues to continue the war in Ukraine while not causing a market shock.

Yes, because the previous price cap didn’t cause a market shock at all until everyone calmed down and the oil kept flowing. The six countries, in case anyone was wondering, are Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, which apparently can’t get enough of high energy prices. Also, they don’t seem to know how an economy works and what makes it grow: cheap energy.

Prime Minister Starmer plans to make Britain AI 'superpower'

"We're going to make the breakthroughs, we're going to create the wealth, and we're going to make AI work for everyone in our country."

also

"We will test and understand AI before we regulate it to make sure that when we do it, it's proportionate and grounded."

The above quotes present conclusive proof that one, the UK’s Prime Minister has no idea what AI means and how it works, and, two, he doesn’t know what words mean. But it’s totally going to work, what with all that abundance of cheap energy generated by turbines and panels, as Tammy Nemeth pointed out in the last Energy Realities podcast. Also, the man’s a carrot and I realise this remark is offensive to carrots because they have health benefits. I apologise.

Net Zero Investor Coalition Hits Pause After BlackRock Exit

“Recent developments in the U.S. and different regulatory and client expectations in investors’ respective jurisdictions have led to NZAM launching a review of the initiative to ensure NZAM remains fit for purpose in the new global context.“

Yes, you will be fittest for purpose if you’re clinically dead because the purpose is also dying. It has very little to do with Trump, though. If the net-zero thing made money, everyone in finance would be fighting tooth and nail to keep it alive. It’s as simple as that.

IEA Expects Oil Demand Growth to Accelerate But Still Projects Surplus

The Paris-based organization forecasts global demand to grow by 1.05 million barrels a day in 2025 from 1.1 million barrels a day previously, reaching an average of 104 million barrels a day on lower prices and an improving economic outlook in developed countries.

They must have hated every minute of compiling this report, which is the latest OMR. Yet true to form, the IEA “still projects surplus”, despite the latest U.S. sanctions against Russia, despite the expected sanction tightening on Iran, and despite the OPEC+ cuts. There shall be surplus because we need to convince millions of people the world doesn’t need as much oil as it used to. Some celebrities get cancelled. Others cancel themselves.

Can sustainable investing survive Trump 2.0?

One thing that the industry does agree on in 2025, though: the term ESG has been weaponised and is confusing for investors. That means that ESG as a synonym for sustainable investment is likely to die away, but the trend itself — in its revamped form — will continue.

No, it won’t, FT. It won’t continue because it is losing money and it will be losing even more now as the sponsors go broke one after the other. No subsidies, no ESG.

For dessert, feast on this research from the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory:

Tough Break: Many Factors Make Glass Breakage More Likely

We have seen cases of the glass in solar panels (photovoltaic [PV] modules) breaking differently, and more often, than it did 5 years ago. There have been many changes to PV module design and materials in that time. Several changes have increased the risk of glass breakage. But there is probably no single change that is responsible for the problem.

The more the energy transition advances, the less its drivers can catch a break. Tough.