Interesting to see the conversation about Germany.
My FIL worked for B&W/Areva/Framatome for almost 50 years. He spent years in Germany building those nuclear plants. We often talked about his work and I learned a lot. He also worked on many other plants in Europe. He was a fascinating man. His felt one of his greatest accomplishments was the NS SAVANNAH.
I think my FIL would be very sad to see what has happened in the industry. He might appreciate the newer technology.
I think Putin also made us invade Iraq, have Covid lockdowns, shoot down weather balloons and elect Biden/Trump/Johnson/Truss/ Macron/ (insert idiot of choice). It’s not our fault Putin did it!
Those future deadlines to abolish, ban, etc various things have dreadful effects, even if there is no intention to ever follow through, or kick them into the future forever. The car you will be buying in 2035 is already on the drawing board, but manufacturers now have to reckon with political risks. Do they spend trillions on ramping up electric production capacity only to have the rug pulled when the ban is overturned in 2034? We know most people will avoid electric given the choice, and the chances of the network being ready for millions of electric vehicles is zero. Or do they take the risk of investing billions in continued design of ICE vehicles?
The German solution, as always, will be to handsomely "compensate" the big auto manufacturers, with masses of taxpayer money, for the consequences of shifting political sands. There will be subsidies (already are) for electric, there will be compensation for lost electric sales if (when) the ban is removed, and compensation for lost ICE sales because manufacturers had scaled back. Good for the shareholders, but we will be making fewer cars, and importing more, whatever happens.
The opposite tack is being taken with domestic heating, where you have an effective ban on anything except heat pumps, just coming into effect a year or two later than the 2024 that the greens wanted to force through (at zero notice). Builders and homeowners have no political clout, they will have to pay, and pay, and pay. No compensation for political risk, and for the first time since the war this law has subjected property ownership to political risk. If this really does happen and is not reversed, the pumps will be installed, and successively rendered obsolete by banning the "climate changing" gases they rely on to function.
Once your heat pump springs a leak and loses all its coolant, your only choice will be to replace the entire system with a new one. This will bring a whole new experience to heating systems failing in winter, as you cannot get this fixed in a day or two, you won't be able to patch it up so it can limp on a few more months and replace it later, you will have to tear the whole house apart, every couple of decades, and in many cases without warning at a very inconvenient time. There is of course nothing remotely green about this, destruction of capital value is extraordinarily environmentally unfriendly.
The destruction of capital is, for many of these actors, surely the point. If you have largely achieved what can be done with current technology, but your need to force consumption of your production is insatiable, creating a war on infrastructure is one “solution”.
Assuming that the powerful in the west remain the owners of capital, then this is the only way I can reconcile the economic devastation the green agenda imposes with their continued benefiting from the system.
I do wonder how long western economies can actually pay for all of this as they are progressively wrecked.
You obviously have little knowledge or experience of Heat Pumps (HP’s), there are many millions of HP’s working quite satisfactorily across the world, many of duel purpose, providing both cooling and heating, and in the event of a failure should need no more attention or replacement parts than a wood pellet, oil or gas boiler. The major problem with heat pumps is due to fitting them in badly insulated, draughty properties. Bringing many properties up to a standard suitable for HP’s can be costly and is not seen as sexy enough so doesn’t get the publicity it should. So instead we would rather complain about the cost of energy and do zap all about it even though over time energy costs will only go in one direction, up! to the point conventional heating energy sources in themselves become unaffordable🤔
I have so little knowledge and experience of heat pumps I got one installed in my house 3 years ago.
I fully expect the EU to ban the coolant (R-something, I forget which) at some point because of its high GWP. You are then, should you start losing coolant, in a race against time and the constantly increasing price of a gas that is no longer being made or imported. Ultimately you have no choice but to scrap the entire system because you can't just use a different gas with the same compressors and heat exchangers.
They have already successively banned various gases for this reason, and the torniquet will only tighten, until there is nothing but propane left to use as coolant.
I put this system in because I can afford it, in Germany, as primarily air conditioning (heating is secondary). It is a complete decadent luxury in a country with only brief height of summer need for a/c, and where you find it installed in <1% of private residences.
Most German owners and renters are in no position to install these systems on an artificial deadline that does not reflect capital lifecycle of existing systems. In many cases it is also doubtful that it is the technical, economic, or environmental best choice when the current heating system reaches its natural end of life.
It's worth noting we have been here before. Remember CFCs? Highly effective coolants with low GWP. They got banned in the 1980s, because of the hole in the ozone layer, and replaced with the current coolants with GWP hundreds to thousands of times higher. No one cared about "global warming" back then. It was a little too soon after the global cooling scare.
Incidentally, the hole in the ozone layer is still there, hasn't even shrunk. But at least "models predict" that it will return to 1980 levels sometime around the middle of the century (after modellers safely retired).
Also "models predict" that if we hadn't banned CFCs, we would now have no ozone at all and the planet would be inhabitable.
Isn't it great to have all these models to tell us what we cannot experimentally determine! Truly models are the progress of science and take away that burdensome and expensive evidence gathering. All you need is a PC and Excel!
You said “Once your heat pump springs a leak and loses all its coolant, your only choice will be to replace the entire system with a new one” I’ve pointed out that’s not true, and also pointed out before a Heat Pump is installed in a building the building should be assessed as to its thermal efficiency so that any corrective measures can be carried out to get the lowest running cost with correct size Heat Pump. The fact that you “got one installed” doesn’t mean it was installed correctly or with running cost in mind, also one make of Heat Pump is not the same as another, you pay’s your money and gets what you pay for. You also seem to be over concerned about the chemical refrigerant used, typically “R410A refrigerant is most commonly used in air conditioning systems, heat pumps, and refrigeration units” Additionally, it can be used as a direct replacement for R-22 without needing to make any modifications to existing systems” and this would also apply to automobile air conditioners🤔
Neither of those two statements (replacement of a system for which replacement coolant/ irrelevant stuff about installation), are in your reply to me.
R22 was banned in Europe in 2010, and that it would be banned was known for years before. Anyone concerned about compatible replacements for that gas is operating a system approaching its end of life anyway.
Oh look. R410A is also banned in Europe from 2025, and this has been known for years in advance.
So what is going to work as a 1:1 replacement for R410a after 2025? In all systems designed for R22? Guaranteed to work in all such systems. You are the expert, so tell us!
And surely, as these coolants are progressively banned, next step will be to go after coolants with GWP under 750, you can assure us that all systems will be able to work no problems at all with some not yet invented coolant?
You did write this didn’t you. “Once your heat pump springs a leak and loses all its coolant, your only choice will be to replace the entire system with a new one”
I just pointed out that loss of refrigerant doesn’t mean you have to scrap your Heat Pump (HP’s). As for which refrigerant is “banned” that doesn’t mean if it’s in your HP’s system your HP is banned. And as for a chemical replacement as I pointed out you wouldn’t be on your own as apart from millions of static HP’s there’re tens of millions of Cars with Air Conditioners, or perhaps you’re suggesting we should scrap them if they don’t conforming to latest refrigerant standard, whatever that might be🤔
In the age of global warming ,with global overheating just around the corner ,it makes no sense to talk about heat pump in homes in Germany .What is needed is cooling freezer systems in every house .The overheating of the planet is truly serious when even Eskimos are buying snow from Walmart to stay cool .
Interesting - pointing fingers at WEF, Putin, the Greens, all our governments, our philanthropic groups etc., so just who is behind all this unprecedented transformation of our culture? So it's back to always follow the money, but us mere mortals don't have all the facts to be able to do that!.
The silent majority is behind it, I think. Those who let it happen because they either don't care what happens or can't imagine just how bad it could get.
and so many just don't know, and so many just want to get through this life as easy as possible and let other people - like you - do it for them. You are right the silent majority!
Many, at least here, are apathetic after witnessing governments work against them for decades. Also many are too focused on their own everyday problems to ever entertain the thought that the abstract transition will add to these everyday problems. But when it does... they should spring into action.
Isn’t that exactly what’s happened with banking and highlighted even more during the scamdemic, the rich creed off billions yet again from the struggling taxpayers.
Government spent 19 billion with their cronies on dodgy ppe that was less than useless, they’ve had 4 billion of that burned so far.
Excellent article! Irina! we see this contradiction (dissonance) in objectives - fight endless wars and combat climate change....wars need mobility that comes from only high-density fossil fuels. I like your word "Climateering" - it is probably a psychological (operational) diplomatic tool to keep other countries/people from improving their lives with the use of low-cost reliable energy. This is a way to beat your competitors by mislead them, propagandizing gullible tax-paying public! Renewables and endless wars are largest transfers of wealth from public tax funds to private hands. Good luck and best wishes to those believers!
Now that we're seeing the limits of installed renewable capacity in Germany, is it possible to model these limits by region - including the US and other key markets at least - to attempt to understand the timing? Perhaps this analysis has already been researched.
It doesn't seem hard to look at the history of Germany since the reunification and believe that first Gerhard Schroeder and then Angela Merkel spent their entire time in office laying the groundwork for the collapse of the nation so that it could fall under Russian control. the green lunacy is simply part of the process
If that's true, why has left-leaning MSNBC commentator Rachel Maddow been telling us that Russia is the enemy, and that politicians like Schroeder and Merkel are our friends? Trump and Putin are allies, remember?
Before we can change our energy structure we have first to understand what’s involved: Globally only ~20% of energy is supplied in the form of electricity, and only ~2% of that is provided by Renewables/Alternative Energy of which Nuclear Power is just one, leaving ~80% still reliant on FINITE Flammable Fossils. It would need a massive Nuclear Renaissance to break into that 80% and this is where in Vaclav Smil’s words we run up against scale and complexity of the energy system that we are attempting to replace. Nuclear Energy is not a panacea to our energy problems as John Michael Greer reminds us in his book “Dark Age America”, the [ words in brackets ] are mine for emphasis:-
“No nation on earth has ever been able to launch or maintain a nuclear program without huge and continuing subsidies [tax breaks]. Nuclear power, in other words, never pays for itself; absent a stream of government handouts, it doesn’t make enough economic sense to attract enough private investment [where are the institutional investors falling over themselves to get a slice of the action] to cover its costs, much less meet the huge and so far unmet expenses of nuclear waste storage, and in the great majority of cases, the motive behind the program, and the subsidies, is pretty clearly the desire [USA] of local government to arm itself with nuclear weapons at any cost”🤔
That's your nuclear "expert"? Some moron writer of the occult with zero nuclear expertise.
France replaced 88% of their domestic electricity supply with nuclear in 20yrs, and 40% of their primary energy consumption. And these are old school one-at-at-time construction. And this was in the midst of an Arab Oil Embargo and NG shortage. Factory produced molten salt reactors could easily be ramped up to the 10 of thousands per year.
The USA was completing one NPP per month by 1974. If that rate had continued, if the blockade against Nuclear hadn't been instituted, the USA would have been 100% zero emissions nuclear electricity by 2000. And Utilities weren't building them due to subsidies or Climate Change, they were building them because they were the most economical and most reliable electricity source, more than Coal or Gas. Of course Big Oil & King Coal both loved the nuclear boycott. And now Mercenary ENGOs that oppose Nuclear power are being funded by Big Green along with Big Oil and King Coal.
So it would take 40yrs to replace all energy supplies with Nuclear. What's the big hurry?
And China went from 12,470 TWh primary energy supply in 2001 to 43,791 in 2021, 54% Coal, that's a 3.5X increase in 20yrs. What you think nuclear is more difficult than Coal? It ain't. Nuclear is easier. These people who have been deluded into thinking Nuclear is Rocket Science. It ain't. Coal is harder. There just has been a boycott against Nuclear, the usual Zero Sum game, and all the big players just despise the new-kid-on-the-block and don't want him to rise to their level or god forbid even surpass them.
Hi Smith’y, I believe we’ve parried before. You’ve a habit of defaming people, what JM Greer has said/ written are the facts, just because you can’t accept them doesn’t make them untrue, and what his spiritual beliefs are doesn’t come into it, but if you think they do, how about if he was a Catholic, Mormon, Sikh, Hindu, Muslin, among many others, would that make a difference as to how the facts are presented? It’s also noted you still dwell in the past, seem to recollect telling you we are where we are, if I hadn’t, I have now. Perhaps you should also reread what I had written and dwell upon that: “Globally only ~20% of energy is supplied in the form of electricity, and only ~2% of that is provided by Renewables/Alternative Energy of which Nuclear Power is just one, leaving ~80% still reliant on FINITE Flammable Fossils” And of course non of what you wish for can be achieved without those FINITE Flammable Fossils, and their costs and availability have to be factored in, and they’re only going one way up in cost up with diminishing availability, so making NPP’s, SMR’s, whatever, less and less affordable. We’re far from the 1970’s now, in both indebtedness and globalisation🤔
You don't know what defamation is. I'm just reading from his Bio. Usually when you quote a reference its not just some Tom, Dick or Harry making comments in the field. You are supposed to quote a qualified reputable authority. Your JM Greer is not, not even close, so I'm just pointing that out. If you think being an Astrologer is equivalent to a Catholic, then me saying he is an Astrologer is no different to you than him being a Catholic, which is OK by me, but it is part of his bio, and people can judge his reputability accordingly.
What's with this "FINITE" crap. Of course fossil is finite. Everything is finite. Time is finite. Is the fossil resource limits significant at the present time? Yes, they are, that's why we need to quit avoiding doing the necessary switch to nuclear energy. I will state the truth that the only reason that is happening is Vested Interests don't want the competition or want to milk Energy Scarcity for Profit and Power. Just as they are deliberately creating food shortages. Just as they stupidly shutdown the economy for their Covid Plandemic.
As I said France did it, with ancient one-at-a-time construction. Many companies are trying to market factory build nuclear. The authorities are not helping that. They just want the wind & solar scam. So where is this risk you are talking about? Why are the authorities doing their level best to make that risk worse? Answer those questions if you want the truth.
“Usually when you quote a reference it’s not just some Tom, Dick or Harry making comments in the field.”
Hmm. Recently attended the funeral of a friend and neighbour who died of nothing more sinister than old age, it will happen to us all eventually. We both had in common careers based in engineering, he mechanical, myself electrical engineering, which we often discussed, along with companies we’d worked for, places we’d traveled to home and abroad, and the people we’d met. He and his wife were religious, I’m not, though they hadn’t visited church for some years. His wife asked the pastor of the church they’d most attended if he would give a eulogy. The pastor knew very little of my friends home life and nothing of his military service or work life, but he agreed to give the eulogy. The pastor spoke over the days prior to the funeral with family members and close friends, he delivered the eulogy which was received with both laughter and tears. At the funeral reception circulating with his family and friends all agreed that there were things none of them knew of my friend, some were funny, some sad, some about his military service and working career. The pastor’s talents though not formally recognised were that of a social worker, researcher and wordsmith, he had the talent to put together for little more than 30 minutes my friends life. You don’t need to be recognised by having letters after your name to collate information and discount fiction from fact, but you do need to be a wordsmith to present it in a way the average Joe and Joan can understand, believe and hopefully remember. For me JM Greer (though by no means the only one I read and listen to) irrespective of his religious beliefs does just that in regard to the human condition, the environment, finance and physics, with his books and talks concise and engaging.
And of course after the C19 fiasco, we don’t believe what experts say anymore, do we🤔
"Sandi Adams was the lady who went viral with her blistering critique of a certain global Agenda at the Glastonbury Council Meeting last March. I got to catch up with her and have a great chat on the core of what is going on!"
Fracking has increased the natural gas supply exponentially. I'm not saying we should abandon nuclear, but it's not like we're about to run out of (so-called) fossil fuels.
To meet the demand of Developing Nations, primary energy supply must increase 5X. There is no way fossil is capable of supplying that. Nuclear can supply that until the Sun burns the Earth.
I'm waiting for the road gluers to come to the US and try and block traffic on a busy highway during rush hour. I guarantee that within a week a few of them will be run over and that will put a permanent stop to it.
There was a character on American TV - Rosann Rosanadana, who would go on unhinged rants, then when corrected say “Oh, never mind”. I don’t see that happening with the transition gang, but your explanation of how they can step away, rely on future tech miracles, and gradually fade into obscurity makes sense to me.
Speaking of future tech miracles, not only will we use surplus renewable power to make hydrogen but we will use even more surplus renewable power to make jet fuel out of atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen. That’s after powering all the heat pumps, cars and trucks... delusional doesn’t cover it.
I agree that current climate policies as adopted and proselytized by 'the west' is unworkable for a couple of major reasons. Firstly every alleged strategy for mitigation regards as a given that those in the so called developed world will be able to continue their current energy consumption into the foreseeable future and that means that when the dingbats create their targets nations who per capita energy consumption is a fraction of developed nations per capita consumption are forced to agree to energy consumption cuts at close to the same order of magnitude as those nations whose current consumption is already excessive.
The other major issue is that the neoliberalism club of nations who are driving these reductions in emissions always choose tactics where the individual energy consumer is expected to 'do their bit' whilst the major corporate and governmental emitters who contribute the bulk of emissions within a community are left alone to launch promotional campaigns trumpeting their organisation as 'fighting climate change' despite the fact they have actually done little or nothing in that fight.
Packaging is one of my bugbears, the amount of wastage caused by packaging as a marketing tool adds a considerable cost to consumers as well as being a completely unnecessary source of emissions, why do these alleged environmentally conscious politicians continue to agree to this stupidity? The only viable motive I can imagine is that all these neoliberal governments are dependant on industry donations to market their political movements to voters, suddenly their primary purpose is cast aside so the politicians can hold on to power. There are many not very nice adjectives for such types and as far as I am concerned they all apply.
How ever one thing I will never agree is that either climate change isn't happening or if it is it is an entirely natural phenomenon unrelated to the activities of humans.
I have too many friends and family who are dedicated scientists who came to the conclusion that climate change was occurring and that humans were a major cause of it back in the 1970's & 80's and the obstacles that the academic community subjected them to inability to gain tenure being one of the frequent punishments and general inability to progress in their careers generally. Those men and women fought hard to be heard for a long time, too long for those who claim that climate change is about lies by careerists to hold water.
I should add that many early climate change discoverers hold the same opinion as I that the worst thing to happen to the environment movement was its adoption by craven politicians looking for a populist platform which doesn't put them offside with mega capitalists, just the same as much of the neoliberal agenda.
As far as I can see these weak politicians have placed the energy capitalists in charge of their policies which is insanity whatever angle one gazes at it from.
Easily my 2 favorite substacks. Great to see you connect
Interesting to see the conversation about Germany.
My FIL worked for B&W/Areva/Framatome for almost 50 years. He spent years in Germany building those nuclear plants. We often talked about his work and I learned a lot. He also worked on many other plants in Europe. He was a fascinating man. His felt one of his greatest accomplishments was the NS SAVANNAH.
I think my FIL would be very sad to see what has happened in the industry. He might appreciate the newer technology.
The shutdown of German nuclear and the support of the Green Party was one of Putin's most masterful KGB Ops :
Putin's Ploy Achieved: Final Shut Down of Germany's Nuclear Power Plants
https://tucoschild.substack.com/p/putins-ploy-achieved-final-shut-down
Putin's KGB Masterstroke: Fracking Banned in Europe Despite Massive Reserves
https://tucoschild.substack.com/p/putins-kgb-masterstroke-fracking?utm_campaign=post_embed
I think Putin also made us invade Iraq, have Covid lockdowns, shoot down weather balloons and elect Biden/Trump/Johnson/Truss/ Macron/ (insert idiot of choice). It’s not our fault Putin did it!
Hey, wait . . . I thought Trump worked for Putin. Does this mean that the Greens are MAGA?
Those future deadlines to abolish, ban, etc various things have dreadful effects, even if there is no intention to ever follow through, or kick them into the future forever. The car you will be buying in 2035 is already on the drawing board, but manufacturers now have to reckon with political risks. Do they spend trillions on ramping up electric production capacity only to have the rug pulled when the ban is overturned in 2034? We know most people will avoid electric given the choice, and the chances of the network being ready for millions of electric vehicles is zero. Or do they take the risk of investing billions in continued design of ICE vehicles?
The German solution, as always, will be to handsomely "compensate" the big auto manufacturers, with masses of taxpayer money, for the consequences of shifting political sands. There will be subsidies (already are) for electric, there will be compensation for lost electric sales if (when) the ban is removed, and compensation for lost ICE sales because manufacturers had scaled back. Good for the shareholders, but we will be making fewer cars, and importing more, whatever happens.
The opposite tack is being taken with domestic heating, where you have an effective ban on anything except heat pumps, just coming into effect a year or two later than the 2024 that the greens wanted to force through (at zero notice). Builders and homeowners have no political clout, they will have to pay, and pay, and pay. No compensation for political risk, and for the first time since the war this law has subjected property ownership to political risk. If this really does happen and is not reversed, the pumps will be installed, and successively rendered obsolete by banning the "climate changing" gases they rely on to function.
Once your heat pump springs a leak and loses all its coolant, your only choice will be to replace the entire system with a new one. This will bring a whole new experience to heating systems failing in winter, as you cannot get this fixed in a day or two, you won't be able to patch it up so it can limp on a few more months and replace it later, you will have to tear the whole house apart, every couple of decades, and in many cases without warning at a very inconvenient time. There is of course nothing remotely green about this, destruction of capital value is extraordinarily environmentally unfriendly.
Thank you--appreciating that first paragraph so much. The rest also, but the first is of most importance to me.
And there is a roaring business in Germany stealing the expensive Heat pump units that sit outside the building and selling them on the black market.
Already?
what?! really?
The destruction of capital is, for many of these actors, surely the point. If you have largely achieved what can be done with current technology, but your need to force consumption of your production is insatiable, creating a war on infrastructure is one “solution”.
Assuming that the powerful in the west remain the owners of capital, then this is the only way I can reconcile the economic devastation the green agenda imposes with their continued benefiting from the system.
I do wonder how long western economies can actually pay for all of this as they are progressively wrecked.
I wonder about it, too. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
You obviously have little knowledge or experience of Heat Pumps (HP’s), there are many millions of HP’s working quite satisfactorily across the world, many of duel purpose, providing both cooling and heating, and in the event of a failure should need no more attention or replacement parts than a wood pellet, oil or gas boiler. The major problem with heat pumps is due to fitting them in badly insulated, draughty properties. Bringing many properties up to a standard suitable for HP’s can be costly and is not seen as sexy enough so doesn’t get the publicity it should. So instead we would rather complain about the cost of energy and do zap all about it even though over time energy costs will only go in one direction, up! to the point conventional heating energy sources in themselves become unaffordable🤔
I have so little knowledge and experience of heat pumps I got one installed in my house 3 years ago.
I fully expect the EU to ban the coolant (R-something, I forget which) at some point because of its high GWP. You are then, should you start losing coolant, in a race against time and the constantly increasing price of a gas that is no longer being made or imported. Ultimately you have no choice but to scrap the entire system because you can't just use a different gas with the same compressors and heat exchangers.
They have already successively banned various gases for this reason, and the torniquet will only tighten, until there is nothing but propane left to use as coolant.
I put this system in because I can afford it, in Germany, as primarily air conditioning (heating is secondary). It is a complete decadent luxury in a country with only brief height of summer need for a/c, and where you find it installed in <1% of private residences.
Most German owners and renters are in no position to install these systems on an artificial deadline that does not reflect capital lifecycle of existing systems. In many cases it is also doubtful that it is the technical, economic, or environmental best choice when the current heating system reaches its natural end of life.
It's worth noting we have been here before. Remember CFCs? Highly effective coolants with low GWP. They got banned in the 1980s, because of the hole in the ozone layer, and replaced with the current coolants with GWP hundreds to thousands of times higher. No one cared about "global warming" back then. It was a little too soon after the global cooling scare.
Incidentally, the hole in the ozone layer is still there, hasn't even shrunk. But at least "models predict" that it will return to 1980 levels sometime around the middle of the century (after modellers safely retired).
Also "models predict" that if we hadn't banned CFCs, we would now have no ozone at all and the planet would be inhabitable.
Isn't it great to have all these models to tell us what we cannot experimentally determine! Truly models are the progress of science and take away that burdensome and expensive evidence gathering. All you need is a PC and Excel!
Apparently, with models you can do whatever you like.
You said “Once your heat pump springs a leak and loses all its coolant, your only choice will be to replace the entire system with a new one” I’ve pointed out that’s not true, and also pointed out before a Heat Pump is installed in a building the building should be assessed as to its thermal efficiency so that any corrective measures can be carried out to get the lowest running cost with correct size Heat Pump. The fact that you “got one installed” doesn’t mean it was installed correctly or with running cost in mind, also one make of Heat Pump is not the same as another, you pay’s your money and gets what you pay for. You also seem to be over concerned about the chemical refrigerant used, typically “R410A refrigerant is most commonly used in air conditioning systems, heat pumps, and refrigeration units” Additionally, it can be used as a direct replacement for R-22 without needing to make any modifications to existing systems” and this would also apply to automobile air conditioners🤔
Neither of those two statements (replacement of a system for which replacement coolant/ irrelevant stuff about installation), are in your reply to me.
R22 was banned in Europe in 2010, and that it would be banned was known for years before. Anyone concerned about compatible replacements for that gas is operating a system approaching its end of life anyway.
Oh look. R410A is also banned in Europe from 2025, and this has been known for years in advance.
So what is going to work as a 1:1 replacement for R410a after 2025? In all systems designed for R22? Guaranteed to work in all such systems. You are the expert, so tell us!
And surely, as these coolants are progressively banned, next step will be to go after coolants with GWP under 750, you can assure us that all systems will be able to work no problems at all with some not yet invented coolant?
You did write this didn’t you. “Once your heat pump springs a leak and loses all its coolant, your only choice will be to replace the entire system with a new one”
I just pointed out that loss of refrigerant doesn’t mean you have to scrap your Heat Pump (HP’s). As for which refrigerant is “banned” that doesn’t mean if it’s in your HP’s system your HP is banned. And as for a chemical replacement as I pointed out you wouldn’t be on your own as apart from millions of static HP’s there’re tens of millions of Cars with Air Conditioners, or perhaps you’re suggesting we should scrap them if they don’t conforming to latest refrigerant standard, whatever that might be🤔
In the age of global warming ,with global overheating just around the corner ,it makes no sense to talk about heat pump in homes in Germany .What is needed is cooling freezer systems in every house .The overheating of the planet is truly serious when even Eskimos are buying snow from Walmart to stay cool .
I can't believe nobody thought about this! :D Excellent point.
Interesting - pointing fingers at WEF, Putin, the Greens, all our governments, our philanthropic groups etc., so just who is behind all this unprecedented transformation of our culture? So it's back to always follow the money, but us mere mortals don't have all the facts to be able to do that!.
The silent majority is behind it, I think. Those who let it happen because they either don't care what happens or can't imagine just how bad it could get.
and so many just don't know, and so many just want to get through this life as easy as possible and let other people - like you - do it for them. You are right the silent majority!
Many, at least here, are apathetic after witnessing governments work against them for decades. Also many are too focused on their own everyday problems to ever entertain the thought that the abstract transition will add to these everyday problems. But when it does... they should spring into action.
I believe there is a related conspiracy in all this -- the transition from a capitalist economy to a truly socialist state. Am I nuts to think this?
You're not but be prepared to enter the re-education camp for thinking.
RFKjr says it best. The system they want is a corporate Kleptocracy which provides cushy socialism for the rich and merciless capitalism for the poor:
Robert F. Kennedy Jr tells Tucker this is turning America into a system of socialism for the rich
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68MhtliIAvk&t=40s
Isn’t that exactly what’s happened with banking and highlighted even more during the scamdemic, the rich creed off billions yet again from the struggling taxpayers.
Government spent 19 billion with their cronies on dodgy ppe that was less than useless, they’ve had 4 billion of that burned so far.
Excellent article! Irina! we see this contradiction (dissonance) in objectives - fight endless wars and combat climate change....wars need mobility that comes from only high-density fossil fuels. I like your word "Climateering" - it is probably a psychological (operational) diplomatic tool to keep other countries/people from improving their lives with the use of low-cost reliable energy. This is a way to beat your competitors by mislead them, propagandizing gullible tax-paying public! Renewables and endless wars are largest transfers of wealth from public tax funds to private hands. Good luck and best wishes to those believers!
That's eugyppius's term for the transition crowd, not mine. :)
In Canada we don't need heat pumps .We are warm like toast using forest fires .
Now that we're seeing the limits of installed renewable capacity in Germany, is it possible to model these limits by region - including the US and other key markets at least - to attempt to understand the timing? Perhaps this analysis has already been researched.
It doesn't seem hard to look at the history of Germany since the reunification and believe that first Gerhard Schroeder and then Angela Merkel spent their entire time in office laying the groundwork for the collapse of the nation so that it could fall under Russian control. the green lunacy is simply part of the process
If that's true, why has left-leaning MSNBC commentator Rachel Maddow been telling us that Russia is the enemy, and that politicians like Schroeder and Merkel are our friends? Trump and Putin are allies, remember?
Before we can change our energy structure we have first to understand what’s involved: Globally only ~20% of energy is supplied in the form of electricity, and only ~2% of that is provided by Renewables/Alternative Energy of which Nuclear Power is just one, leaving ~80% still reliant on FINITE Flammable Fossils. It would need a massive Nuclear Renaissance to break into that 80% and this is where in Vaclav Smil’s words we run up against scale and complexity of the energy system that we are attempting to replace. Nuclear Energy is not a panacea to our energy problems as John Michael Greer reminds us in his book “Dark Age America”, the [ words in brackets ] are mine for emphasis:-
“No nation on earth has ever been able to launch or maintain a nuclear program without huge and continuing subsidies [tax breaks]. Nuclear power, in other words, never pays for itself; absent a stream of government handouts, it doesn’t make enough economic sense to attract enough private investment [where are the institutional investors falling over themselves to get a slice of the action] to cover its costs, much less meet the huge and so far unmet expenses of nuclear waste storage, and in the great majority of cases, the motive behind the program, and the subsidies, is pretty clearly the desire [USA] of local government to arm itself with nuclear weapons at any cost”🤔
That's your nuclear "expert"? Some moron writer of the occult with zero nuclear expertise.
France replaced 88% of their domestic electricity supply with nuclear in 20yrs, and 40% of their primary energy consumption. And these are old school one-at-at-time construction. And this was in the midst of an Arab Oil Embargo and NG shortage. Factory produced molten salt reactors could easily be ramped up to the 10 of thousands per year.
The USA was completing one NPP per month by 1974. If that rate had continued, if the blockade against Nuclear hadn't been instituted, the USA would have been 100% zero emissions nuclear electricity by 2000. And Utilities weren't building them due to subsidies or Climate Change, they were building them because they were the most economical and most reliable electricity source, more than Coal or Gas. Of course Big Oil & King Coal both loved the nuclear boycott. And now Mercenary ENGOs that oppose Nuclear power are being funded by Big Green along with Big Oil and King Coal.
So it would take 40yrs to replace all energy supplies with Nuclear. What's the big hurry?
And China went from 12,470 TWh primary energy supply in 2001 to 43,791 in 2021, 54% Coal, that's a 3.5X increase in 20yrs. What you think nuclear is more difficult than Coal? It ain't. Nuclear is easier. These people who have been deluded into thinking Nuclear is Rocket Science. It ain't. Coal is harder. There just has been a boycott against Nuclear, the usual Zero Sum game, and all the big players just despise the new-kid-on-the-block and don't want him to rise to their level or god forbid even surpass them.
Hi Smith’y, I believe we’ve parried before. You’ve a habit of defaming people, what JM Greer has said/ written are the facts, just because you can’t accept them doesn’t make them untrue, and what his spiritual beliefs are doesn’t come into it, but if you think they do, how about if he was a Catholic, Mormon, Sikh, Hindu, Muslin, among many others, would that make a difference as to how the facts are presented? It’s also noted you still dwell in the past, seem to recollect telling you we are where we are, if I hadn’t, I have now. Perhaps you should also reread what I had written and dwell upon that: “Globally only ~20% of energy is supplied in the form of electricity, and only ~2% of that is provided by Renewables/Alternative Energy of which Nuclear Power is just one, leaving ~80% still reliant on FINITE Flammable Fossils” And of course non of what you wish for can be achieved without those FINITE Flammable Fossils, and their costs and availability have to be factored in, and they’re only going one way up in cost up with diminishing availability, so making NPP’s, SMR’s, whatever, less and less affordable. We’re far from the 1970’s now, in both indebtedness and globalisation🤔
You don't know what defamation is. I'm just reading from his Bio. Usually when you quote a reference its not just some Tom, Dick or Harry making comments in the field. You are supposed to quote a qualified reputable authority. Your JM Greer is not, not even close, so I'm just pointing that out. If you think being an Astrologer is equivalent to a Catholic, then me saying he is an Astrologer is no different to you than him being a Catholic, which is OK by me, but it is part of his bio, and people can judge his reputability accordingly.
What's with this "FINITE" crap. Of course fossil is finite. Everything is finite. Time is finite. Is the fossil resource limits significant at the present time? Yes, they are, that's why we need to quit avoiding doing the necessary switch to nuclear energy. I will state the truth that the only reason that is happening is Vested Interests don't want the competition or want to milk Energy Scarcity for Profit and Power. Just as they are deliberately creating food shortages. Just as they stupidly shutdown the economy for their Covid Plandemic.
As I said France did it, with ancient one-at-a-time construction. Many companies are trying to market factory build nuclear. The authorities are not helping that. They just want the wind & solar scam. So where is this risk you are talking about? Why are the authorities doing their level best to make that risk worse? Answer those questions if you want the truth.
“Usually when you quote a reference it’s not just some Tom, Dick or Harry making comments in the field.”
Hmm. Recently attended the funeral of a friend and neighbour who died of nothing more sinister than old age, it will happen to us all eventually. We both had in common careers based in engineering, he mechanical, myself electrical engineering, which we often discussed, along with companies we’d worked for, places we’d traveled to home and abroad, and the people we’d met. He and his wife were religious, I’m not, though they hadn’t visited church for some years. His wife asked the pastor of the church they’d most attended if he would give a eulogy. The pastor knew very little of my friends home life and nothing of his military service or work life, but he agreed to give the eulogy. The pastor spoke over the days prior to the funeral with family members and close friends, he delivered the eulogy which was received with both laughter and tears. At the funeral reception circulating with his family and friends all agreed that there were things none of them knew of my friend, some were funny, some sad, some about his military service and working career. The pastor’s talents though not formally recognised were that of a social worker, researcher and wordsmith, he had the talent to put together for little more than 30 minutes my friends life. You don’t need to be recognised by having letters after your name to collate information and discount fiction from fact, but you do need to be a wordsmith to present it in a way the average Joe and Joan can understand, believe and hopefully remember. For me JM Greer (though by no means the only one I read and listen to) irrespective of his religious beliefs does just that in regard to the human condition, the environment, finance and physics, with his books and talks concise and engaging.
And of course after the C19 fiasco, we don’t believe what experts say anymore, do we🤔
Well its good to know you saw through the Covid charade. Now you need to see through the Green New Deal charade. A must-see video for you:
Discover Who Really Runs the World! with Sandi Adams, Ivor Cummins
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpH7UQ9CU3o
"Sandi Adams was the lady who went viral with her blistering critique of a certain global Agenda at the Glastonbury Council Meeting last March. I got to catch up with her and have a great chat on the core of what is going on!"
https://sandiadams.net/what-is-agenda-21-introduction-history/
Then, and only then, will you understand the why and the what is going on in Energy policy globally.
Fracking has increased the natural gas supply exponentially. I'm not saying we should abandon nuclear, but it's not like we're about to run out of (so-called) fossil fuels.
To meet the demand of Developing Nations, primary energy supply must increase 5X. There is no way fossil is capable of supplying that. Nuclear can supply that until the Sun burns the Earth.
While I would consider eugyppius Germany's best blogger, I would have to say that you're absolutely Bulgaria's best, Irina!
And I mean that most sincerely. I read you both eagerly with every post, and am never disappointed.
I would LOVE to see you two co-blog on a more regular basis, as I think your different approaches are actually quite complimentary.
Thank you!
Credit where it is due, Irina. You're an international treasure.
Well, I won't lie I dislike the way you see me even if I don't see myself the same way. :) Thank you!
As usual, E is right on: the US AGW fanatics use Western Europe as an incubator for crazy green policies that they intend to transplant in the US.
I'm waiting for the road gluers to come to the US and try and block traffic on a busy highway during rush hour. I guarantee that within a week a few of them will be run over and that will put a permanent stop to it.
Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future. Yogi Berra.
so good, thank you
Excellent analysis. Beautifully written. Thanks.
There was a character on American TV - Rosann Rosanadana, who would go on unhinged rants, then when corrected say “Oh, never mind”. I don’t see that happening with the transition gang, but your explanation of how they can step away, rely on future tech miracles, and gradually fade into obscurity makes sense to me.
Speaking of future tech miracles, not only will we use surplus renewable power to make hydrogen but we will use even more surplus renewable power to make jet fuel out of atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen. That’s after powering all the heat pumps, cars and trucks... delusional doesn’t cover it.
I agree that current climate policies as adopted and proselytized by 'the west' is unworkable for a couple of major reasons. Firstly every alleged strategy for mitigation regards as a given that those in the so called developed world will be able to continue their current energy consumption into the foreseeable future and that means that when the dingbats create their targets nations who per capita energy consumption is a fraction of developed nations per capita consumption are forced to agree to energy consumption cuts at close to the same order of magnitude as those nations whose current consumption is already excessive.
The other major issue is that the neoliberalism club of nations who are driving these reductions in emissions always choose tactics where the individual energy consumer is expected to 'do their bit' whilst the major corporate and governmental emitters who contribute the bulk of emissions within a community are left alone to launch promotional campaigns trumpeting their organisation as 'fighting climate change' despite the fact they have actually done little or nothing in that fight.
Packaging is one of my bugbears, the amount of wastage caused by packaging as a marketing tool adds a considerable cost to consumers as well as being a completely unnecessary source of emissions, why do these alleged environmentally conscious politicians continue to agree to this stupidity? The only viable motive I can imagine is that all these neoliberal governments are dependant on industry donations to market their political movements to voters, suddenly their primary purpose is cast aside so the politicians can hold on to power. There are many not very nice adjectives for such types and as far as I am concerned they all apply.
How ever one thing I will never agree is that either climate change isn't happening or if it is it is an entirely natural phenomenon unrelated to the activities of humans.
I have too many friends and family who are dedicated scientists who came to the conclusion that climate change was occurring and that humans were a major cause of it back in the 1970's & 80's and the obstacles that the academic community subjected them to inability to gain tenure being one of the frequent punishments and general inability to progress in their careers generally. Those men and women fought hard to be heard for a long time, too long for those who claim that climate change is about lies by careerists to hold water.
I should add that many early climate change discoverers hold the same opinion as I that the worst thing to happen to the environment movement was its adoption by craven politicians looking for a populist platform which doesn't put them offside with mega capitalists, just the same as much of the neoliberal agenda.
As far as I can see these weak politicians have placed the energy capitalists in charge of their policies which is insanity whatever angle one gazes at it from.