“When the White House started calling around in a panic, they thought shale oil production could grow sharply in the near term — like in a matter of months or quarters. They were shocked to learn that that’s like asking for blood from a stone. It’s almost impossible.”
Last time Brent was so expensive it was a normal cycle, now many are saying oil's in the mother of all supercycles *and* there's not enough refining capacity after closures during the pandemic. Also sanctions, of course, leading to even tighter supply.
There are lots of reports, just google "U.S. refinery closures" and you should get quite a few results. Sorry about your brother's job. That last crisis was a tough one.
Irina, fantastic article this morning. You would be an excellent United States Secretary of Energy. At least your honesty, practicality, and humor would be great fun.
In order to see the newsletter with the picture, scroll to the bottom of the email where it says “Thanks for subscribing to Irina Slav on energy.” Click on the link “Irina Slav on energy” and it will take you to substack where the post will have a picture at the top.
The things Biden, Von der Leyen and Guterres say are coming from the briefing and speechwriters behind these person. And unfortunately, these posts are filled with political nominees, not experts. These political nominees act as filters for reality for their bosses - much like Putin only heard good news about his army.
But there's another layer, the experts working in the 2nd and 3rd lines of governments, who are aware of the problems, but afraid of reporting it "as is" because of the repercussions. I see this every day - facts & analysis that don't fit the "narrative" are simply not reported, critical discussion of policy initiatives is shut down and so on.
It's not wonder that the crisis keeps getting worse and worse...
I discovered oilprice.com when I was searching for background information on the 2021 Texas freeze. Just skimming over articles over time provides context for the daily news unavailable from mainstream media's sound and word bites.
Either Biden, doesn't seem to get energy like the Saudis or Czar Putin do or he is just engaging in voter manipulation though that would require voter ignorance of energy issues.
Yes. Decades ago then Senator Biden appeared frequently on network TV news shows as the Democrat party expert in foreign relations. He was more incoherent than most politicians on news shows in those days. Today he is an older version of incoherent. I can only guess but my guess is that he thinks politics (reelection) first and energy reality second.
How does it feel to see the world's superpower run by folks like this :).
Since 2021 the oil industry in California hasn't been able to obtain permits to drill new exploration or production wells because of court challenges and State government delays. The buildup to no permits has been going on for decades but California still uses a lot of oil, the majority foreign imports. How importing lowers CO2 emissions is a question that deserves some pondering. California has very rich oil basins and significant remaining potential but the industry is prevented from assisting the nation's oil supply and lowering the price. More details on this problem at https://www.geoexpro.com/articles/2022/06/california-dreaming-revisiting-the-oil-rich-san-joaquin-basin-california
Politics is always about building an appealing narrative to get or stay elected. That the narrative departs so far from reality can become problematic, as Putin learned when his personal narrative that Ukrainians would welcome Russian invaders with open arms and celebration parades turned out to be completely wrong.
For those of us who can see through the political and extremist nonsense, we can position our families and resources appropriately. Long commodities and energy. Short the hype.
No, nowadays politics is largely about politicians taking orders from their owners who are predominantly the Davos Bankster club of psychos. And then the politician has to come up with a narrative to sell those policies to the public no matter how insane they are. So what seems like completely irrational policy is actually devious & evil, there are nefarious purposes behind what has been happening. You can blame Biden, because he is incompetent & senile, but these same destructive policies are happening throughout the Western World, Canada, Australia, Europe, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and so on. This is no coincidence.
It is tempting to believe that there is someone in control behind the curtain, that there is some overarching God-like entity calling the shots. Alas, decades of geopolitical events and macroeconomic volatility show that the beguiling conspiracy theories are just that. No one is in control. It's just chaos.
"It's just chaos"?!? Really. In fact it is the exact opposite of chaos. Chaos would mean one country, one state would do one thing, another would might change some, another do the opposite. What we are seeing is a highly ordered virtually simultaneous implementation of entirely irrational energy, food supply and covid polices that all amount to shooting yourself in the foot, or more like shooting yourself in the head. This is Worldwide. Sorry friend, this is blatant conspiracy of the worst sort.
So you are unable to explain the total lack of chaos. I know there is orchestration. Not even a shadow of a doubt. You've got a lot to learn. Start with Steve Kirsch and learn the basics about covid and covid vaccines. And then tell me, "no conspiracy there".
Just curious: Do you believe in they myriad of Russia conspiracies the MSM have touted every day for the past 6 yrs? Their white supremacist conspiracy? Their capitol Jan 6 insurrection conspiracy theory? The Whitmer kidnapping conspiracy?
It should be mandatory for all politicians and policy makers to spend at least a decade in the private sector; in the real world of thermodynamic and volumetric constraints. Unfortunately, they live and die in the world of nominal constraints
And must now be censored. This is no joke. They are actually trying to censor climate change skepticism, claiming such information is a threat to public health:
I am, in fact, grimly waiting for the day when they will get to Substack. I hope its owners will continue resisting censorship attempts. I think it's worth it.
Tucker Carlson had the Utah State Treasurer, Marlo Oaks on last night, who explained how the ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Scam, being pushed by the Big Banks, World Bank, IMF, WEF & Blackrock, is drying up funding for rational energy development. Instead it pushes funding to scams like wind & solar and various carbon credit schemes, like forest preserves in Brazil. They claim buying up a section of rainforest and sequestering it from development replaces all that vegetation carbon from being released by farming, ranching or logging and then sell an equivalent amount of carbon credits to outfits like Exxon. It's all nonsense, the farmers or loggers just exploit another area. And if the forest preserve burns by accident or on purpose, no refunds are given. And then the investment firm can regrow the forest and get more carbon credits for that.
And the top 5 on the ESG top 500 are the big Tech giants Apple, Amazon, Microsoft & Google/Alphabet. Largely because they buy carbon credits from wind & solar farms which is all nonsense, pretending one unit of wind or solar displaces one unit of coal generation. The grid doesn't work that way. And Tesla is not even on the ESG top 500. While Exxon is at #8. Companies that develop nuclear power plants won't make the ESG top 500. What a scam!
Elon Musk @elonmusk
" Exxon is rated top ten best in world for environment, social & governance (ESG) by S&P 500, while Tesla didn’t make the list! ESG is a scam. It has been weaponized by phony social justice warriors. "
We should be grateful that it's months for shale rather the years needed for a conventional development (which would likely be offshore as all of the easy conventional onshore has been tapped). Imagine if the US had banned fracking as other countries have? Thank you George Mitchell!
I'd also observe that, for example, Keystone XL could have been in service by now, enabling greater flows from the friendly frozen north.
It’s interesting that you see the Biden Administration attempting to stifle thought, words, details that run counter to their woke left climate agenda. Recent statements by many Admin officials run the course of “asking” social media platforms to censor “miscommunication” on climate change issues including the truth on oil, refining and such. The woke left just loves free speech but only if it is their version of the truth. The people however see thru this and Sleepy Joes blame game. The Dems are going to go down to an epic defeat in the November elections.
I think your articles are spot on and call the situation as it is.
There is a problem though that after a while people potentially tune out.
While I agree that the majority of people and all of the world’s governments have swallowed the “renewables" hype pill on energy and are off with the fairies, I am suggesting that collectively, people who read your articles push ideas for really moving forward. I know, it will be like pushing the soft and smelly stuff uphill with a sharp stick, but we cannot rely on politicians or the rich and famous to do it.Climate Change amelioration, energy security or whatever you want to call it, will take more than one political term and that is why governments will not do anything - they are only interested in being re-elected.
Yep, its hard, but we have to start somewhere clear of fairy dust.
This is a very good question that the politicians doing the calls on the oil industry never seem to ask themselves.
Last time Brent was so expensive it was a normal cycle, now many are saying oil's in the mother of all supercycles *and* there's not enough refining capacity after closures during the pandemic. Also sanctions, of course, leading to even tighter supply.
There are lots of reports, just google "U.S. refinery closures" and you should get quite a few results. Sorry about your brother's job. That last crisis was a tough one.
Irina, fantastic article this morning. You would be an excellent United States Secretary of Energy. At least your honesty, practicality, and humor would be great fun.
Irina, none of Ken Mull's graphics ever show up.
They're pictures, not graphics. Odd, I'll look into it. Thanks for alerting me to this.
In order to see the newsletter with the picture, scroll to the bottom of the email where it says “Thanks for subscribing to Irina Slav on energy.” Click on the link “Irina Slav on energy” and it will take you to substack where the post will have a picture at the top.
Thank you, Ken!
Bravo! fantastic. insightful and very direct.
The things Biden, Von der Leyen and Guterres say are coming from the briefing and speechwriters behind these person. And unfortunately, these posts are filled with political nominees, not experts. These political nominees act as filters for reality for their bosses - much like Putin only heard good news about his army.
But there's another layer, the experts working in the 2nd and 3rd lines of governments, who are aware of the problems, but afraid of reporting it "as is" because of the repercussions. I see this every day - facts & analysis that don't fit the "narrative" are simply not reported, critical discussion of policy initiatives is shut down and so on.
It's not wonder that the crisis keeps getting worse and worse...
I discovered oilprice.com when I was searching for background information on the 2021 Texas freeze. Just skimming over articles over time provides context for the daily news unavailable from mainstream media's sound and word bites.
Either Biden, doesn't seem to get energy like the Saudis or Czar Putin do or he is just engaging in voter manipulation though that would require voter ignorance of energy issues.
The bit about God and Exxon was a direct quote by Biden, not something written about him. Same with Guterres.
Yes. Decades ago then Senator Biden appeared frequently on network TV news shows as the Democrat party expert in foreign relations. He was more incoherent than most politicians on news shows in those days. Today he is an older version of incoherent. I can only guess but my guess is that he thinks politics (reelection) first and energy reality second.
How does it feel to see the world's superpower run by folks like this :).
It's... mixed, to be honest.
Since 2021 the oil industry in California hasn't been able to obtain permits to drill new exploration or production wells because of court challenges and State government delays. The buildup to no permits has been going on for decades but California still uses a lot of oil, the majority foreign imports. How importing lowers CO2 emissions is a question that deserves some pondering. California has very rich oil basins and significant remaining potential but the industry is prevented from assisting the nation's oil supply and lowering the price. More details on this problem at https://www.geoexpro.com/articles/2022/06/california-dreaming-revisiting-the-oil-rich-san-joaquin-basin-california
Politics is always about building an appealing narrative to get or stay elected. That the narrative departs so far from reality can become problematic, as Putin learned when his personal narrative that Ukrainians would welcome Russian invaders with open arms and celebration parades turned out to be completely wrong.
For those of us who can see through the political and extremist nonsense, we can position our families and resources appropriately. Long commodities and energy. Short the hype.
Cheers!
No, nowadays politics is largely about politicians taking orders from their owners who are predominantly the Davos Bankster club of psychos. And then the politician has to come up with a narrative to sell those policies to the public no matter how insane they are. So what seems like completely irrational policy is actually devious & evil, there are nefarious purposes behind what has been happening. You can blame Biden, because he is incompetent & senile, but these same destructive policies are happening throughout the Western World, Canada, Australia, Europe, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and so on. This is no coincidence.
It is tempting to believe that there is someone in control behind the curtain, that there is some overarching God-like entity calling the shots. Alas, decades of geopolitical events and macroeconomic volatility show that the beguiling conspiracy theories are just that. No one is in control. It's just chaos.
"It's just chaos"?!? Really. In fact it is the exact opposite of chaos. Chaos would mean one country, one state would do one thing, another would might change some, another do the opposite. What we are seeing is a highly ordered virtually simultaneous implementation of entirely irrational energy, food supply and covid polices that all amount to shooting yourself in the foot, or more like shooting yourself in the head. This is Worldwide. Sorry friend, this is blatant conspiracy of the worst sort.
You're imagining orchestration where there is none. I'll take the other side of that trade every day.
So you are unable to explain the total lack of chaos. I know there is orchestration. Not even a shadow of a doubt. You've got a lot to learn. Start with Steve Kirsch and learn the basics about covid and covid vaccines. And then tell me, "no conspiracy there".
tinyurl.com/Kirsch-covid-elephant
Just curious: Do you believe in they myriad of Russia conspiracies the MSM have touted every day for the past 6 yrs? Their white supremacist conspiracy? Their capitol Jan 6 insurrection conspiracy theory? The Whitmer kidnapping conspiracy?
u nailed it. scary talk from washington/brussels/UN.
It should be mandatory for all politicians and policy makers to spend at least a decade in the private sector; in the real world of thermodynamic and volumetric constraints. Unfortunately, they live and die in the world of nominal constraints
Nah, they would be useless to us. We already have enough self aggrandizing bloviators in the private sector.
I'm inclined to agree but private sectors agents don't have as much influence over entire nations regardless of of how self aggrandizing they may be
Hello Irina,
All of this is delusional indeed. I live in Oregon and sent Sen Wyden an email advising him of the unbeilveable consequence of this horrible idea.
I really hope that works, but I will admit to having doubts...
Absolutely brilliant.
Keep writing, Irina. Please, please don't ever give up!
You remind me of the prophet Jeremiah in the Bible.
God's abundant blessings to you!
Thank you, Gary. I'll do my best.
We regret to inform you that Gina McCarthy has officially labeled this article as dangerous climate misinformation.
And must now be censored. This is no joke. They are actually trying to censor climate change skepticism, claiming such information is a threat to public health:
https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/why-the-biden-admin-wants-censorship?s=r
I am, in fact, grimly waiting for the day when they will get to Substack. I hope its owners will continue resisting censorship attempts. I think it's worth it.
Tucker Carlson had the Utah State Treasurer, Marlo Oaks on last night, who explained how the ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Scam, being pushed by the Big Banks, World Bank, IMF, WEF & Blackrock, is drying up funding for rational energy development. Instead it pushes funding to scams like wind & solar and various carbon credit schemes, like forest preserves in Brazil. They claim buying up a section of rainforest and sequestering it from development replaces all that vegetation carbon from being released by farming, ranching or logging and then sell an equivalent amount of carbon credits to outfits like Exxon. It's all nonsense, the farmers or loggers just exploit another area. And if the forest preserve burns by accident or on purpose, no refunds are given. And then the investment firm can regrow the forest and get more carbon credits for that.
And the top 5 on the ESG top 500 are the big Tech giants Apple, Amazon, Microsoft & Google/Alphabet. Largely because they buy carbon credits from wind & solar farms which is all nonsense, pretending one unit of wind or solar displaces one unit of coal generation. The grid doesn't work that way. And Tesla is not even on the ESG top 500. While Exxon is at #8. Companies that develop nuclear power plants won't make the ESG top 500. What a scam!
Elon Musk @elonmusk
" Exxon is rated top ten best in world for environment, social & governance (ESG) by S&P 500, while Tesla didn’t make the list! ESG is a scam. It has been weaponized by phony social justice warriors. "
Watch Tucker Carlson, 6/14/22 @ 30m:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/0MRUY6ze3c8b/
We should be grateful that it's months for shale rather the years needed for a conventional development (which would likely be offshore as all of the easy conventional onshore has been tapped). Imagine if the US had banned fracking as other countries have? Thank you George Mitchell!
I'd also observe that, for example, Keystone XL could have been in service by now, enabling greater flows from the friendly frozen north.
It’s interesting that you see the Biden Administration attempting to stifle thought, words, details that run counter to their woke left climate agenda. Recent statements by many Admin officials run the course of “asking” social media platforms to censor “miscommunication” on climate change issues including the truth on oil, refining and such. The woke left just loves free speech but only if it is their version of the truth. The people however see thru this and Sleepy Joes blame game. The Dems are going to go down to an epic defeat in the November elections.
Irina,
I think your articles are spot on and call the situation as it is.
There is a problem though that after a while people potentially tune out.
While I agree that the majority of people and all of the world’s governments have swallowed the “renewables" hype pill on energy and are off with the fairies, I am suggesting that collectively, people who read your articles push ideas for really moving forward. I know, it will be like pushing the soft and smelly stuff uphill with a sharp stick, but we cannot rely on politicians or the rich and famous to do it.Climate Change amelioration, energy security or whatever you want to call it, will take more than one political term and that is why governments will not do anything - they are only interested in being re-elected.
Yep, its hard, but we have to start somewhere clear of fairy dust.
Thank you, Ross. I agree, we need to keep trying to clear off the fairy dust.