Здраствуйте, я ваша тётя

*Hello, I'm your aunt. (Rus.)

“Hello, I’m your aunt” is a 1975 Russian adaptation of Brandon Thomas’s 1892 farce “Charley’s Aunt” that broke all viewing records at the time, which was the time when the Brits still did brilliant comedy. In the East, the adaptation was no less successful, with the title phrase entering slang as an expression of surprise — of the unsurprising sort. Essentially, it’s a longer version of the American “Duh!” and the British “Really?”

It was also my reaction to a report from the FT headlined EU debates return to Russian gas as part of Ukraine peace deal. Bloomberg’s Javier Blas called it the least surprising news of the year. I can’t top that so I won’t even try. But I cannot help noting the delicious irony that this “debate” is taking place while the EU discusses next steps in its glorious plan to quit any and all Russian hydrocarbons by 2027 — while excluding Russian LNG from its latest glorious package of sanctions.

It could be dissociative disorder in the Brussels brain trust. Or it could be the same old criminal-level incompetence that made it possible for the brain trust to actually believe they can totally survive without the cheap pipeline gas of the Evil East. Some called it realpolitik and it is, indeed, realpolitik. Others called it a presumably embarrassing admission that democracies need dictatorships although I’m not sure if these commentators haven’t got their wires crossed because to call the EU a democracy these days is quite the stretch.

What it is, is one more reality wall, highly visible at all times, and yet a wall the EU consistently refused to acknowledge until it hit it. And now it’s going to keep hitting it because that’s the kind of wall it is.

For starters, the debaters assume Russia would be eager to restart gas flows to its old clients in Europe in very much the same way they assumed three years ago that Gazprom will keep pumping gas to Europe regardless of how many sanctions Europe sent Moscow’s way. As we know, that didn’t happen and there is no reason for it to happen again — because much as many in the West love the idea that Russia would crumble and die without those precious European gas revenues the past three years are evidence enough it won’t. Sorry, Kaja, Ursula, Robert, Donald and the rest of the pretty ladies in Brussels and selected other capitals.

Further, while this debate takes place, the EU still has a stated purpose of ending all Russian energy imports by 2027. And ten EU members are insisting on an earlier end because you might have thought hypocrisy is finite but it actually isn’t and at least one of these ten countries whom I shall refrain from mentioning boasted back in 2023 that it had completely suspended Russian gas imports while continuing them — via a neighbour. But let’s move on.

While the debate takes place and while the ten Chihuahuas insist on an early ban, diplomats are hard at work securing alternative supplies, “including from the United States” because, per one of these diplomats, “First you have to have a deal because otherwise you will be left without gas from Russia and without the U.S.”

This is an interesting observation seeing as I haven’t heard about a shortage of LNG on the spot market. There’s plenty of LNG on that market — for the right price, of course. So the problem is not failing to secure access to U.S. gas but rather failing to secure access to cheap U.S. gas, or at least cheaper than spot LNG.

Which means long-term contracts. Which means spitting on their own green targets that see gas demand as a temporary inconvenience to be overcome by 2030 or something. And that’s happening while eurocrats discuss restoring Russia flows, hopefully with a view to asking nicely, if they want to stand a chance to get it cheaply.

While I ponder what mental illness this is, Norway’s government just collapsed because of the EU’s insistence the country adopts its energy policies with a focus on a transition from gas to wind and solar. I had no idea Norway was in such a submissive relationship with Brussels and was very disappointed to learn it was, but the government collapse restored my faith in the Vikings. As one Norwegian journalist put it on X, the EU wants Norwegians to cover their rooftops with solar panels. In Norway. Which is a Nordic country. In the North. Anyway.

The problem with the Norwegian government collapse is that at the next election it will probably be the right-wingers that will win — and that means the end of excessive gas exports to Europe. And that increases the chances of a heating up in the Russian gas debate possibly to the point of “Dear Alexei Borisovich, if you would be so kind to restore your gas flows we will stop renaming Russian works of art and banning Chaykovsky. Sincerely, Europe.”

After which Alexei Borisovich may drop by Vladimir Vladimirovich to report that Europe’s just had a “Здраствуйте, я ваша тётя” moment. In fact, it seems he already did and V.V. was in favour, after Ursula of the Commission said they’re stilly trying to get Zelensky to agree to restarting gas transit to Europe via BlackRockland.

In perfectly unrelated news Denmark has issued a permission for Gazprom to plug the damaged Nord Stream 2 pipeline to avoid further environmental damage. “The work aims to preserve the damaged pipeline by installing customised plugs at each of the open pipe ends to prevent further gas blow-out and the introduction of oxygenated seawater,” the Danish energy agency said.

I have questions. First, why did it take the Danish energy agency so long to issue the permission when they must have known that the pipe still contains natural gas that is bad for the environment? Second, might the timing of that permission have anything at all to do with Donald Trump’s insistence on acquiring Greenland from that same Denmark? Third and most outlandish, is Denmark trying to pull an Iceland on the U.S. by using Russia in a remake of the Cod Wars but with gas?

While I wait for time to tell me the answers to these questions — although I have some idea what they might be — in the real world “European gas prices jumped to the highest level since October 2023 yesterday as unexpected supply disruptions and colder weather forecasts worsened the supply threats in an already tight market. TTF front-month futures rose over 6% to close above EUR51/MWh as of yesterday as market participants remained concerned about volatile supplies of liquified natural gas following the recent production issues at some export facilities affecting fuel flows.”

Also, “Europe still has roughly two more months to go before the end of the winter heating season, but gas stocks have already fallen close to or below levels at the end of the last two winters.” EU gas storage was 54.65% full as of Wednesday.

I leave you with this quote from an unnamed but senior EU official: “In the end, everybody wants lower energy costs.”

Здраствуйте, я ваша тётя.