27 Comments
Jun 6, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

The EU is like a "toddler with a flame thrower" and their meddling in the energy mix will end in tears.

Expand full comment

This energy poverty disaster is NOT an accident and NOT stupidity. It is malicious and the same idiotic policies are being done in Australia, Canada, USA, name a Western country that isn't doing the same. We are seeing central NWO control going on. Policies straight out of the idiot Klaus Schwab's two school boy level books.

Expand full comment
Jun 6, 2022·edited Jun 6, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

Hanson’s razor indeed. “Never attribute malice that which can be explained by stupidity”. I define stupidity as the inability to correlate cause and effect. We have quite a few highly credentialed people in the EU with virtually no real experience on how complex systems actually work. They are way over their skies on the sanctions and it will be interesting to watch if people in Europe are on board for this wild ride to energy poverty.

Expand full comment
author

What a neat and simple definition of stupidity, Thank you for it. A lot of people appear to be on board. For now. The knife's not yet to the bone.

Expand full comment

No this is malice. It is throughout the Western world, but also to a lesser extent in China and Russia. I know they are incompetent but these energy policy decisions, like the food supply actions and the covid plandemic decisions all have the same effect = economic collapse. This is no accident. There are evil people behind this.

Expand full comment
Jun 6, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

And of course, this accelerated energy transition will be very expensive because it is dependent on expensive oil to dig up materials and process them into construction and manufacturing materials. And then said expensive oil is needed to manufacture, construct, operate and maintain the clean energy transitioned to. If only we could use wind and solar make the clean energy that makes clean energy! But we can't.

Expand full comment

Great summary of the implications for EU's Russian oil import ban and new maritime insurance constraints. Sometime, I'd like to see a similar Irina Slav article on the USA's oil & gas situation given the Russian situation, devoid of course, of the world-of-speculation that Irina is great at avoiding.

Expand full comment
author

It's in the making. How could I resist?

Expand full comment
Jun 7, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

Great, glad to hear.

Best, Thom Davis

Expand full comment
Jun 6, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

Irina, You are doing an amazing job trying to bring awareness to energy reality. This is simple violation of second law of thermodynamics...high-intensity energy demand cannot be met by a low quality energy (exergy) characterized by low-density and low-probability unless people in collective West want to live romanticized pastoral lives. By the way "Daddy Warbucks" is real for many people here in US....

Expand full comment

Is the EU the center of this drama or is the EU show a diversion obscuring what Russia and the PRC have planned for the rest of the world?

Czar Putin's current behavior is a logical continuation of his behavior since he assumed the throne. The chattering classes in the West seem stunned that he invaded the Ukraine. While these talking heads are running breathlessly to try to get in front of the evolving story, I am not inclined to trust their vision for a brighter energy tomorrow.

As a selfish paleo conservative American I am inclined to leave the EU to the tender mercies of the Czar and ban fossil fuel exports to our ancestors. Our getting involved in WWI was a mistake and that mistake caused WWII. I am also inclined to prioritize our support of Japan and other truer friends in the Pacific as long as they take on their fair share of defense and have realistic energy plans.

Expand full comment

Putin is a puppy afraid to take on Davos continuing to allow their minion, Elvira mistress of darkness, to run their central bank, a disaster for Russia. The Davos gang of Bankster Psychopaths punked Putin into invading Ukraine. And America is the prime stooge of Davos who setup Putin on this misadventure in Ukraine. Obviously the Davos gang, including their lackey's in the Biden regime are just salivating in glee over the Ukraine invasion.

Expand full comment
Jun 6, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

" ... this still sounds a little too conspiratorial for my taste ..."

No, it isn't conspiratorial at all. In fact, what it appears is that the EU is doing is exactly what it looks like.

The Climate Change ideology is nothing but dressed-up population control.

Don't forget that the wealthy and powerful are as viscerally terrified that the less wealthy will ruin their "world" as Margaret Sanger was viscerally terrified that the black man would ruin *her* "world".

Sanger's solution? Control the population growth of the black man via abortion. She was one of the founders of Planned Parenthood. It is, in effect, a genocide of people with black skin.

The solution of the powerful and wealthy? Another genocide but it's dressed-up with nice outfits and big cars: Make energy so expensive for the less wealthy that their population growth slows if not stalls. They're working to make it too expensive to have children.

An example? BC (Canada) applies a 56% carbon tax on domestic NG usage.

The BC government takes that money and gives it to more wealthy people to incentivize them to buy EVs.

Thus government is taking from the less wealthy and giving it to the more wealthy by the power of government, thus making it more difficult for the less wealthy to prosper and have more children.

As Prohibition in the U.S. was an unmitigated disaster, so will this attempt by the powerful and wealthy to control human population growth result in an unmitigated disaster world-wide. You want to know how bad it's going to get? Read the book of Revelation in the CJB.

Expand full comment

Exactly true, but of course much worse when you add in the Covid plandemic and the dangerous vaccines, good description: Steve Kirsch at German Corona Investigation committee testimony starting at 2h15m:

https://gettr.com/streaming/p1cipaxbb92

And the destruction of our food supply by various means including energy policy and the war in the Ukraine which they also deliberately created. These scheming, lying Bankster psychopaths and their minions need to be locked up.

Expand full comment
Jun 7, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

So you're saying that governments break your legs, then hand you a set of crutches and expect you to be thankful for their latest genius-level initiative? (call it operation Crutch! or better yet C.R.U.C.H to represent some ridiculous acronym cooked up in some ivory tower)

Allow me to quote you "EU politicians may well choose a course of action that seeks to make fossil fuels prohibitively expensive in order to boost the competitiveness of wind and solar, and EVs". This isn't conspiratorial at all, this was indeed part of the stated objective of a variety of "green initiatives" and "ESG friendly regulations".

Western governments have been trying to artificially inflate the "price of carbon emissions" to "better reflect the impact on catastrophic climate change" for a while now. As a trader friend of mine often says "but why are they so upset now? I thought the plan all along was to increase the price of fossil fuels and their plan worked!". They are so upset because of unintended consequences as you noted, they somehow wanted higher prices for fossil fuels but not out of control inflation, or the populous to get wise about the whole thing or for someone like Putin to threaten the Western authoritarian agenda by using their ill-concieved energy policies against them.

For the purist out there: Yes, Putin is indeed an authoritarian and Russia is indeed ruled by an authoritarian regime, hope that makes your happy and you can now stop foaming at the mouth because someone, somewhere on planet Earth said something that might be construed as "pro Putin".

The adults in the room however, understand that ALL governments by definition are authoritarian and just because I happen to prefer the Western authoritarian agenda over all others it does not mean that I don't acknowledge the Western authoritarian agenda for what it is.

Expand full comment
Jun 7, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

This has nothing to do with climate change apart from spin. This is part of a package being delivered worldwide that includes energy inflation, food shortages and covid forced vaccinations, destructive lockdowns and other irrational (& illegal) medical policy.

If they really cared about climate change, they would:

a) Remove the many roadblocks and restrictions against Nuclear power

b) Drop all Cap & Trade, Carbon Trading, Net Zero, Carbon Credit policies (all of which are just different versions of the same scam) and proven horrendously expensive while a total failure in emissions reduction. Replace that with:

c) The Revenue Neutral Carbon Fee & Dividend which is what the most rational & honest climate scientist Jim Hansen recommends. Which rewards the energy stingy while penalizing the energy gluttons (the rich). The exact opposite of the Carbon trading scams.

d) Remove all the vast mandates, subsidies and exemptions that preferentially support wind & solar, the energy supply that has had zero impact on emissions. With the CF&D let the free market decide what is the most efficient and cost effective way to reduce emissions. Stop allowing idiot politicians and their corrupting owners from picking winners and losers in the energy game.

e) Instead of throwing $trillions down the sewer on nutty wind, solar, agrofuel, hydrogen, ITER & grid storage scams, spend that capitol on R&D for real potentially game-changing low carbon tech which means new types of fission and fusion energy sources. And improved methods of reforestation techniques. And instead of trashing Musk & SpaceX, finance and accelerate Starship development with potential to build the Sunshade at the Sun-Earth L1 point, in the event the above methods are inadequate to prevent excess temperature rise.

They aren't doing any of the above, in fact, just the opposite. Inevitable conclusion: they could care less about climate change, this is all about wealth, power & control for a cadre of the Global Uber-Wealthy.

Expand full comment

I'm inclined to agree in general and as a matter of fact but I submit that perhaps you may be too emotionally involved if you think that climate change has a zero statistical weight as an input into the median reaction function by the median central planner as it relates to the median energy policy.

Governments do care about climate change, they might not care in the way in which you prescribe, suggest or advice but they most definitely care and I don't know of a single analyst that hasn't factored climate change into the reaction functions of central planners without success...it's a gift that keeps on giving! Or more accurately, giving to some while taking away from others but I don't control markets, I just trade them.

Expand full comment
author

That's the thing, they never said outright they had the intention of making fossil fuels prohibitively expensive and of course they wouldn't -- this sort of admission would have cost many a cushy jobs.

Your Putin remark made for a very good start of my day. :D Thanks!

Expand full comment
Jun 7, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

Fiscal, monetary and regulatory policy is transparently non-transparent by design. No, they did not say in plain English that they wanted fossil fuels to be more expensive but it is very much all there buried in technical jargon. Of course, they didn't expect the recent price volatility (unintended consequences) but the plan all along has been to increase the cost of capital for "the old economy" because they know best what that cost of capital should be.

In all fairness, I wouldn't be surprised if they get let off the hook for at least sometime if all western economies go into enough of an economic slow down that forces global energy prices down over the next few quarters. I'm a trader so I have zero attachment to market direction and that's how my P&L does what it does; I know plenty of global macro position traders who years ago decided to only trade energy commodities to the upside because 'didn't you listen to these goons? They want higher prices'

Expand full comment
Jun 7, 2022·edited Jun 7, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

Hanlon's razor says: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity. All this can be explained by stupidity and sheer political will to make the EC leaders seem "doing something".

Let me briefly add my 2c on "accelerating the transition". This originally came in late last year when it was clear that - contrary to confident forecasts - the energy price crisis will not go away any time soon. So, parallel with calls to Gazprom to sell more natural gas to Europe, top EU politicians started to say "oh but this is good, it will accelerate the transition". Despite all evidence clearly pointing to the opposite direction - who will want to invest in an EV when the price of electricity just started going up-up-up? And the EVs are not even available, thanks to the problems with manufacturing.

Since then "accelerate" is the key word everywhere - the transition, the deployment, the financing, the roll-out and, apparently, the bullsh*t as well.

Unfortunately for the Brussels decision makers, "people" really just want to drive from A to B (where B is either work, home or somewhere sunny with a sandy beach) without breaking the family budget. So another unintended consequence might be a popular turn against the mythical "transition" that simply makes everyday life more and more expensive.

Expand full comment
author

We could only hope for that unintended consequence -- people waking up and smelling the accelerated BS. Very well put, thanks!

Expand full comment
Jun 8, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

Sanctions, sanctions, and more SANCTIONS !!!!, is not going to stop anything. While we the people pay more for basically everything, the war will continue. Oil including Russia's oil is sold on the open market and will simply be mixed with other oil on different flagged tankers, another work around being done as we speak.

What's to stop BRICS from creating its own insurance outside the western influence and still ship oil? What Americans do not get is Europe is basically resource poor as it is. Europe depends on many raw materials not easily replaced from other sources.

I am sitting here with my popcorn and journal to watch this shit show. When western populations start to protest some governments and countries may no longer belong in the EU.

IO am headed to Gulfport tomorrow to fill my darn boat 200 gallons before the prices go any higher.

Expand full comment
author

Some in America's political circles get Europe's resource poverty very well and I'm sure would be happy to benefit from it. Foreign policy is intimately related to energy dependencies such as they are, after all.

I'm in stocking-up mode, too. We've got to prepare for the winter.

Expand full comment
Jun 8, 2022Liked by Irina Slav

Agree and those Americans in power want the EU dependent on American energy. I just do not understand why EU politicians want to cause their populations such pain. Biden was correct in his speech to the American population that Europe's fuel is a lot more expensive. What Americans do not get is public transportation in Europe has been around longer and is more efficient.

Having lives in Augsburg for five years I learned to use it when I could but came to understand Europeans do not love the automobile like we do. Plus it is much more expensive to own a vehicle in Europe.

Expand full comment
author

They want to cause pain because they can. It's all beginning to look like one pan-continental experiment by this point.

Expand full comment

Great article. You've nailed the vicious cycle that will ensue with yet another poor decision. I don't think these people are "stupid" at all. They're trying to maintain their world order, no matter the cost. Weak, hungry, desperate people with no access to regular energy sources are very easy to control. That may sound harsh and ridiculous to us, but these people don't care. They want power, and will do whatever it takes to consolidate power and maintain it.

Russia, China, India and Iran (and others) want no part of the "Rules Based Neo Liberal World Order" or whatever they're calling it these days. The forces at work who have destroyed once proud western Christian nations have no place to land this time around. To me, it all looks quite religious, for lack of a better term.

And the "how long will people tolerate this!?" question has been answered already. The 'land of the free' citizens dutifully wore a useless mask on their faces, closed their businesses and churches, kept their children home from school, and did as they were told. All the while their health authorities were publishing data that 99+ percent of those under 70 were effectively at no risk.

They bent the knee for Cough Lockdowns. They will now sacrifice for Climate Lockdowns. How those lockdowns look will remain to be seen. Perhaps something like this - and it will work:

ATTN: "Power will be curtailed tonight as we need to sacrifice 3 nights this week all summer to fight climate change." Thank you citizens of (fill in western city here). #savetheplanet #followthescience

Expand full comment
author

I really hope that when it's a question of food or energy, people will stop being obedient but the examples you gave of the conditioning going on gave me a pause. Some parts of Europe may well be beyond rebelling, indeed.

Expand full comment