An interesting thing will happen in the U.S. China is the main supplier of several critical minerals, including antimony, and rare earth elements. China is cutting/will cut export of these elements.
North America, weirdly, has more than sufficient deposits of these minerals to supply itself. But it takes 10 years to permit a mine. BUT, the President has the ability to strategically negate the need for permits in the face of a crises in supply. Hence Trump will sweep aside environmental regulations on a half dozen large mines in the U.S. This will include rare earth elements, antimony, and lithium. As such world supply of these elements will rapidly increase.
I think EVs will be fine - we are seeing the trough of disillusionment. If we weren't spending stupid money on subsides for EVs this would actually have happened a while ago. Batteries are poised to doble in energy density in the next couple of years. That will vastly cut costs and increase range. Overall, EVs will keep getting better.
I also think nuclear power will resurge. Every country in Europe can afford to build a Terra power reactor and can do it in < 5 years.
Russian gas...won't come back. Likely - around 1 million Russians have fled Russia. Who are these people? Young, competent, people with marketable skills. They won't come back. Russian oil fields are tricky, complicated. With the exit of the majors from Russia, and the loss of almost everyone they trained, there is a huge lack of experience, and ability to perform basic maintenance on the equipment. You'll start to see production fall. Oil production has already fallen to a 20-year low. It's going to keep falling - the people in charge have no idea what they are doing. Poor O&M issues take time to build - 2025 is the year it all starts to unravel. It won't be one thing - but a cascade of things. Trains will stop working, pipelines stop flowing, wells stop pumping.
In Russia, 73 percent of enterprises report labor shortages. 1.6 million jobs are unfilled. That will not change even when the war ends.
Trump...might...surprise people. Even waiting 3 months to end the Ukraine war will be intolerable to Russia as the industrial collapse unfolds. He will likely see this...and just wait a few months.
And again, Russia won't bounce back, even with Putin gone, no war, and sanctions ended. The swath to the oil taps is not connected to nothing, the electrical cable having been metaphorically melted down for copper two years ago.
An interesting thing will happen in the U.S. China is the main supplier of several critical minerals, including antimony, and rare earth elements. China is cutting/will cut export of these elements.
North America, weirdly, has more than sufficient deposits of these minerals to supply itself. But it takes 10 years to permit a mine. BUT, the President has the ability to strategically negate the need for permits in the face of a crises in supply. Hence Trump will sweep aside environmental regulations on a half dozen large mines in the U.S. This will include rare earth elements, antimony, and lithium. As such world supply of these elements will rapidly increase.
I think EVs will be fine - we are seeing the trough of disillusionment. If we weren't spending stupid money on subsides for EVs this would actually have happened a while ago. Batteries are poised to doble in energy density in the next couple of years. That will vastly cut costs and increase range. Overall, EVs will keep getting better.
I also think nuclear power will resurge. Every country in Europe can afford to build a Terra power reactor and can do it in < 5 years.
Russian gas...won't come back. Likely - around 1 million Russians have fled Russia. Who are these people? Young, competent, people with marketable skills. They won't come back. Russian oil fields are tricky, complicated. With the exit of the majors from Russia, and the loss of almost everyone they trained, there is a huge lack of experience, and ability to perform basic maintenance on the equipment. You'll start to see production fall. Oil production has already fallen to a 20-year low. It's going to keep falling - the people in charge have no idea what they are doing. Poor O&M issues take time to build - 2025 is the year it all starts to unravel. It won't be one thing - but a cascade of things. Trains will stop working, pipelines stop flowing, wells stop pumping.
In Russia, 73 percent of enterprises report labor shortages. 1.6 million jobs are unfilled. That will not change even when the war ends.
Trump...might...surprise people. Even waiting 3 months to end the Ukraine war will be intolerable to Russia as the industrial collapse unfolds. He will likely see this...and just wait a few months.
And again, Russia won't bounce back, even with Putin gone, no war, and sanctions ended. The swath to the oil taps is not connected to nothing, the electrical cable having been metaphorically melted down for copper two years ago.