Transitory transition

“Climate change and environmental degradation are an existential threat to Europe and the world. To overcome these challenges, the European Green Deal will transform the EU into a modern, resource-efficient and competitive economy.”

“The European Green Deal is also our lifeline out of the COVID-19 pandemic. One third of the 1.8 trillion euro investments from the NextGenerationEU Recovery Plan, and the EU’s seven-year budget will finance the European Green Deal.”

This text sits at the top of the European Green Deal page on the Commission’s website. And it’s painfully obvious that only about a year after its completion, the page is in need of a major rewrite.

This from Reuters: Column: Europe's mammoth LNG import bill may drain energy transition coffers. Whoever could have seen this coming? Not those in charge of EU energy policies, definitely. And they’re not alone in their inability to plan ahead and anticipate events.

“This crisis has underscored the importance of moving to clean energy solutions so we are not under the thumb of petro-dictators,” U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said last month, as quoted by Energy Intelligence. "In this moment of emergency," everyone understands that the movement to clean energy is about the climate, but also "energy security."

That would be the same Energy Secretary that has on more than one occasion pleaded with the U.S. oil industry to boost production so petrol prices can fall and ensure the Democrats don’t suffer a spectacular defeat at the midterms next month. I won’t even mention her boss’s 180s on the oil question.

These conflicting signals suggest, on the face of it, that politicians are unaware of the realities of energy. But on another level, they suggest a potential awareness of something else: the transition is going to be expensive; maybe so expensive that we won’t be able to afford it.