The world as a sitcom

Arguments, quarrels, and all sorts of kerfuffle are one of the pillars of comedy, especially in its visual form. In the latest instance of life imitating art, it seems rows are breaking out in Europe and the U.S. like acne on an unfortunate teenager’s face.

The loudest — and most entertaining — is the row between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia about the OPEC+ decision to cut production. It has all the makings of good comedy: the Americans accused the Saudis of making a political decision, the Saudis said this wasn’t true, the Americans said “Yeah, right”, and the Saudis responded with “You’re not going to tell me what to do.”

It really makes for good entertainment, until ordinary Americans begin to feel the effect of the Saudi decision — I mean, the OPEC consensus decision, of course — which, if they’re lucky, might get delayed because of recession fears (“recession fears” is the new “supply chain disruptions” in case you’ve missed it).

For all its comedic value, however, the exchange makes one wonder just how far the Biden administration is prepared to go in antagonising one of its biggest allies in energy and, incidentally, a major supplier of oil, too.

“The Saudi foreign ministry can try to spin or deflect, but the facts are simple,” said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby in response to the official Saudi statement saying the OPEC+ decision was a consensus decision and one motivated by purely economic factors.

“In recent weeks, the Saudis conveyed to us — privately and publicly — their intention to reduce oil production, which they knew would increase Russian revenues and blunt the effectiveness of sanctions. That is the wrong direction,” he added.

The above is the usual “or else” line of U.S. foreign policy made polite but it doesn’t seem to be having the usual effect. The Saudis apparently accused the Americans of politicising oil and trying to tell it what to do with its own oil. No patience is unlimited.

It seems the U.S. party in this particular row operates on the assumption that it has leverage over the Saudi party. Indeed, it is a major supplier of weapons to the Saudis. Unfortunately, it is not the only supplier of weapons in the world.

More importantly, however, the leverage of the Saudis over the U.S. — and the world, really — is greater. Saudi oil production is decided by the state. If the state says cut, Aramco will cut. If the state says boost, Aramco will boost.

U.S. production is decided by the executives of private companies, and their shareholders, of course. The U.S. state cannot say “Boost production” because nothing will happen, as we have seen recently. What the U.S. state can do is motivate the industry to produce more oil to help it regain its swing-producer advantage over OPEC+. But it’s not doing it because climate change.

So, the U.S. is the world’s largest oil producer and yet it is effectively beholden to the second-largest because the latter has much greater control over its production level than the former. And the former is shaking its fist in the face of the latter. How hilarious is that?

Well, very, but it has strong competition in Europe. In what I’d describe as an unwittingly witty reimagining of “Everybody Hates Chris”, several EU members have accused Germany of being selfish for taking care of its businesses and citizens with a 200-billion-euro aid package.

The package, the haters claim, will help boost Germany’s economy at the expense of poorer countries, which cannot afford such generous aid packages. Germany, in the form of its economy ministry has responded with, well, the truth.

“If Germany were to experience a really deep recession, it would drag the whole of Europe down with it,” Robert Habeck told the FT in an interview. “We’re not being selfish — we’re trying to stabilise an economy at the heart of Europe.”

One might argue that stating uncomfortable truths aloud is bad taste but once you get annoyed enough, there’s no place for taste considerations. Of course, stating that German interests are the same thing as the EU interest so bluntly could backfire by prompting other members of the bloc to stop and think why did we all get to the point where German interests are the same thing as the EU interest, but it may be just my wishful thinking.

Speaking of backfiring, the Biden administration gets another entry on the real-life sitcom list with emergent doubts that the oil price cap for Russian exports might, well, backfire.

“Administration officials, who have held meetings nearly every day to work out implementation of the price cap, are also increasingly worried that Russian President Vladimir Putin may retaliate by cutting off supplies, one person familiar with the matter said. The people asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.”

This is per a Bloomberg report that went on to say that “National Security Council Spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said “this is false.””

As I’ve said before, I am a big fan of modality. That’s probably because I have vivid memories of cramming for an English Grammar exam at university and wanting to bang my head against the wall while I revised modality.

It is as a fan that I have to say how much I admire the use of the word “may” in the above quote. Putin states clearly that Russia will stop selling oil to countries that try to cap the price of its oil and the White House suspects it “may” do it. And then lies about some people with still functioning brains worrying about it.

Meanwhile, the cap is still being discussed, amazingly, but, if we are to believe Janet Yellen, everything is going great, because she is “optimistic about the progress we are making on this together,” meaning the U.S. and the EU. The comedy duo.

The second member of the duo also got another entry on the sitcom list. With the suggestion that it might be a good idea to reconsider renewable energy targets. Nope, it’s not a joke.

“EU countries are considering watering down the European Commission’s plan to ditch Russian fossil fuels, known as REPowerEU, including scrapping a proposed 45% renewable energy target for 2030, according to a document seen by EURACTIV,” the news outlet reported this week.

Do you remember that “Modern Family” episode, when Cam and Claire were renovating a house with the intention of flipping it later? Cam’s way of getting what he wanted from Claire was to first suggest something outrageous that he didn’t really want, and then water this down to the thing he actually wanted, securing Claire’s relieved agreement.

The EU is literally acting like the cast of a sitcom. So’s the U.S. federal government. My only worry is that it will all end like a British sitcom: in cathartic tears.