Public opinion and how (not) to use it

A very interesting column appeared in Reuters at the end of last month. John Kemp, their oil market analyst, wrote that “European Union policymakers have started to prepare the public for siege conditions this winter if gas supplies from Russia are completely cut, an effort to demonstrate diplomatic resolve as well as avoid panic later in the year.”

For those of us who have been following events around the European Union’s struggle with energy security, this was simply taking things a notch up, after this spring’s calls from Commissioner Margrethe Vestager for people to take shorter showers as a means of standing up to Vladimir Putin.

Yet it is quite an interesting change of tune. Back in the spring, shorter showers were suggested as a way of standing up to Russia rather than coping with an energy shortage. There was little if any mention of an energy shortage then.

Now, it’s about the coping, even though the advice for shorter showers remains strong. If you haven’t cut your showering time to three minutes yet you’re probably about to be soon accused of crimes against humanity.

In that same July column, Kemp noted one more difference between the early calls for energy conservation and the latest ones. Back in the spring, those were quite muted and rather rare. Now, as he says, “officials from Germany and other EU member states have begun to talk openly and urgently about the need for immediate reductions in consumption in advance of the peak winter heating season.”

It’s always interesting to follow how a certain political path develops over time but Europe’s path to energy security that many knew from the start would lead to energy conservation has been particularly fascinating. And leading the public by the nose has been instrumental in this development.