If

Last week, analysts at Citi forecast that crude oil prices could drop to as little as $65 per barrel by the end of the year. Prices could, the analysts said, fall even further, to $45 per barrel, in 2023.

The week before last, JP Morgan analysts, on the other hand, warned that crude could soar to $380 per barrel before this year’s end.

The two forecasts — like all forecasts — had one thing in common: the word if.

The Citi team’s forecast was based on the assumption of a global recession, which they said was becoming “increasingly likely”. Even so, the analysts put the likelihood of a major oil price drop at 10%.

They did add, however, that even without an outright recession prices are likely to fall below $100, to about $85 per barrel by the end of the year, because of demand destruction.

The JP Morgan team was basing its forecast on a more specific event, namely Russia’s response to a plan by G7 to put a cap on Russian oil export prices.

“The most obvious and likely risk with a price cap is that Russia might chose not to participate and instead retaliate by reducing exports,” the JP Morgan team wrote. “It is likely that the government could retaliate by cutting output as a way to inflict pain on the West. The tightness of the global oil market is on Russia’s side.”

Citi’s team, on the other hand, considers supply adequate but demand for oil prone to a downward disruption because of inflationary pressures. At the same time, interestingly — and only mentioned towards the end of Insider’s report on the news — Citi also sees a 30% likelihood that oil prices will rise further by the end of the year. In other words, it considers it a greater probability than a price decline.