Gassy, gassy Europe

“At the beginning of this month, the German electricity supply reached its limits. In the evening hours of November 6th, the price of electricity rose extremely quickly and extremely sharply — to more than 800 euros per megawatt hour. This made it around ten times more expensive than usual. There was a brief outcry, but it didn’t last long. Yet the whole situation was more than just a warning shot.”

One of the top ten rules for good fiction writing is a compelling opening sentence and paragraph. The above is an excellent example of how to do that. Unfortunately, it’s not fiction.

The high-quality intro comes from a LinkedIn post by the chief executive of RWE, Markus Krebber, who three days ago issued a stark warning about the state of energy security in Europe’s biggest economy. It was a feat of extreme bravery and talent because for all the starkness of the warning, Krebber did not once name the commodity whose shortage became the reason that warning had to be issued: natural gas.

The most he dared say was “secure capacity” that has not been added at the pace it needed to be added at, in order to cover for intermittent wind and solar when they do not perform. Maybe he’ll mention gas in part three of the thriller series.

Europe’s relationship with natural gas has been problematic for three years now and it seems that the worst some of us have been predicting since 2022 is about to happen this winter — because it will be a normal winter with normal demand levels. Europe’s luck is running out, and fast. Exactly as we said, repeatedly.