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William Rickards's avatar

Wow, more regulation (ATI) from Brussels will surely solve this quandary? 20+ years of mandating renewables, then doubling down, has destroyed the EU but pols refuse to believe it. Waiting for the other shoe to drop, which it will sooner or later.

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Irina Slav's avatar

Oh, they're all about deregulation now -- through more regulation, I suspect.

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William Rickards's avatar

😆

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Futwick's avatar

Escalation of commitment is necessary, and hard. Otherwise one would have to admit they were wrong, and they are politicians who in some cases aren’t even in the minority. Or worst yet, unelected Eurocrats.

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William Rickards's avatar

Thanks again for a great, timely post. I always learn something in your humorous missives!

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Irina Slav's avatar

Happy to hear it!

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Steve Elliott's avatar

Australia and LNG. There was something in the Sky News Documentary called "The Real Cost of Net Zero" about them opening a new LNG import terminal. Something about them switching from being the worlds biggest exporter of LNG to being a net importer. So perhaps it's not such a good idea for the EU to rely on Australia for LNG.

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Irina Slav's avatar

Yeah, there was something about that, and not that long ago, either.

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Karloff's avatar

I don't think it will take very long for Trump47's negotiating tactic (aka tariffs) to produce the desired result. You can tell they are necessary & overdue by watching the libs heads explode on a daily basis. Dead on arrival & twin suicide pact, keep 'em coming Irina! 🤘😎🤘

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Stu Turley's avatar

This is an outstanding article, Irina! It is going to be a bumpy ride, and the real fireworks are about to be launched over the Panama Canal - China thinks it can respond to the tariffs by blocking the sale of the Hong Kong-owned ports to BlackRock - Well if China can block the sale of the ports, they can can stop traffic through the Panama Canal, and that is going to spark military action from President Trump. - Buckle up - it is about to get interesting.

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York Luethje's avatar

Green Readiness 2030 Deal = GR30D?

Needs some work but it’ll do until after the smoke break.

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John Bowman's avatar

It’s Green Rediness. That refers to the red ink that results from going Green.

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York Luethje's avatar

I see you weren’t idle during your break.

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Irina Slav's avatar

I must admit it looks very fancy. Let's forget about the substance, it's the looks that matter.

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York Luethje's avatar

That’s the spirit. Are you gunning for a slot at the EU Commission?

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John Bowman's avatar

“… “a flood of Chinese goods” as if getting an alternative supply of necessary goods is a bad thing. Apparently it is, because the EU is preparing… tariffs for these goods to protect local producers in a move..”

Autarky is in the EEC/EU’s genes and why it was created to keep out the beastly Americans and the then emerging Asian Tiger Economies.

The sole end and purpose of tariffs (and non-tariffs which everyone ignores) is to protect profits for producers (those who have lots of political clout and money to “donate” to political “causes” aka bribery one way or another) by keeping prices of domestic produced goods high. It’s a fallacy therefore (Mr Trump) to say that the tariffs can be avoided by buying domestic produce.

The losers are consumers, smaller businesses, and workers. As consumers pay more, they buy less, companies produce less = fewer jobs. The job losses or lack of job creation takes place broadly at first across the economy and out of sight in the non-protected sectors and small businesses, but eventually will reach those activities protected by import barriers.

The lack of competition has a deeper effect in that it removes the need for technological development and pursuit of innovative ideas (strangled anyway in the EU by regulation) which is why the European economy is stagnant.

Bringing back production: why did production leave? Because it was cheaper to produce elsewhere. Bringing it back will increase payroll and other costs, therefore push up prices to consumers, less bought, reduced economic activity, fewer jobs.

It’s almost as if there is an ”invisible hand” which guides the free market process that irrespective of Government intervention, just will not be stayed.

I know not much about EFTs, but aren’t these funds containing a baskets of investments which need not necessarily all be European? Also since most shares are traded on the secondary market, the money to buy them doesn’t go to the business who issued them but to the share owner. The people who make the money are the traders and fund managers, not the economy.

Economies grow from investment in making things that people desire, not playing financial boards games.

If there is a sudden shift in investment to EU - there must be the smell of blood in the air - also I suppose the commitment to binge on military hardware and never mind debt limits will attract.

On a positive note, whilst what Mr Trump is saying is nonsense, it is bringing to light the whole business about tariffs which vastly distorts internal markets as well as the global market. Maybe - hope springs eternal - it will move us closer to proper free trade.

Just to show the level of ignorance, a short while ago a member of the Commentariat was bemoaning the fact that now the UK was out of the EU and had dropped tariffs on some imports from various Countries, the UK was “losing” £billions in revenue from these tariffs. The fact that UK consumers were saving those £billions was an unknown to him. Perhaps he had been talking to The Donald who it appears believes import tariffs are paid by the exporting Country.

I wonder sometimes how the Human race has managed to survive 300 000 years - or if its got much longer.

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Irina Slav's avatar

To your question, I suspect we only started getting so stupid so fast over the last 20 years or so but I may be underestimating the speed of the process. Everything moved more slowly in the past, much more slowly, including stupidification.

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Gregory Olsen's avatar

Why wouldn't th3 EU love a trade war? According to an Ai inquiry:

"When tariffs are collected on goods imported into the European Union (EU), the revenue is initially received by the individual member states. However, a portion of this tariff revenue—typically 75%—is then transferred to the EU budget, which helps fund various EU-wide programs and initiatives."

As long as the EU calls the shots don't look for the trade war to end any time soon.

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BritishBiker Philippines's avatar

"Some say they’re just being used as a “blunt instrument”" ......... maybe so, or could it be a major step in dismantling the rules based order? A move to rid the world of central banks and abolish income taxes altogether? At the very least a sound method to remove the EU and UN's money, without which they are doomed? I believe we are witnessing another step towards a return of independent national sovereignty around the globe. And now with gilet-jaunes protesting Macron, and his support for Ukraine along with Le Pen's conviction it is quite an exciting time to be alive.

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Jeff Chestnut's avatar

The Brit’s can’t manage their own island and the eu can’t manage its part of the continent. And the people voted for this circus!!

Are we nearing the point of the climatocatastrophists succumbing to reason by physical necessity?

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Bruce McIntyre's avatar

We have natural gas in Canada, and although our recent ex, Mr Blackface, told the EU there was no business case for it, we are priming the pumps at our spanking new gas export facility and could send some gas to Europe. Except for having to send it all the way around the world to get it there. Now, if only there was a way to, I don't know, maybe have nuclear powered icebreakers that never stop working. Then we could send our gas in BC on our west coast to Europe across the very short distance to Greenland through our northern waters and save Europe from dealing with the Bad Orange Man. Oh wait. That's Putin and Xi who have that all figured out. And that's what the Bad Orange Man wants to do. Which we can never support with our elbows shoved out as far as they are. Never mind. Europe, you get the Bad Orange Man. Have fun, we certainly are.

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Andy Fately's avatar

Perhaps why you (and me and your readers) are confused is that this is the natural life cycle of every government. run things until they collapse, then scramble with inanities to try to cling desperately to power before finally succumbing to the inevitable. However, one must give props to the EU for accelerating this process by adopting their climate stance. Logic must never be considered when trying to understand government pronouncements, that is for sure.

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Irina Slav's avatar

Regrettably, this is so.

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les's avatar

Thanks again for this. I was reading this on a restaurant eating lunch. I feel about laughing. You are absolutely right - where are the European equivalents of major companies for the future - they don't or can't exist because of suffocating regulations from a bureaucracy that thinks more "regulations" are needed. All this does is stifle ANY innovators to produce anything worthwhile.

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Irina Slav's avatar

Yeah, but we have safe plastic bottle caps!

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james's avatar

This situation is in effect a long needed reality check for the EU-hope they heed it.

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Irina Slav's avatar

They will be forced to, eventually.

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Roger Lauricella's avatar

Irina, I so enjoy your honest truthful assessment of the EU from deep inside. Your take on what’s going on is so spot on. As a “seasoned, not Senior” American I go back to the 60s and 70s with some of the same so called chaos that is occurring. As you note I do believe that Europe needs the US more than we need them. Strangely enough that’s what Trump has said when he states the NATO has to ante up more because the US has been carrying NATO. In a similar way Trump is calling out not just the EU but other countries taking advantage of the US and behind that the pols in the USA allowing it to happen while they’ve gained wealth at the bad outcome for the American populace. .

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Irina Slav's avatar

Europe made its bed, now it finally has to lie in it.

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Monty Carlo's avatar

The Tariffs (with a big "T") are definitely a Catch.22 situation for Mrs von der Leyen and her technocrat goons as you explained:

- EU has cast itself into a corner energy-wise with gas and making Russia the ultimate evil you just can't deal with. That was strike one.

- Now, Trump is actually doing what he said and promised - which is in itself a shocker to the classe politique in most jurisdictions, since they're used to actually either not doing anything they say or doing something entirely different. They probably still were clinging to their tiny little politically-trained brains, hoping, nay, praying that it was just posturing... and did not prepare for strike two (Tariffs with a big T).

- And now they must sit there, in their workgroups, where their overpaid external armies of empty suit think tanks won't save them from the fact that no one will have LNG for them if they retaliate "in-kind" (however: Trump left that door wide open as oil and derivatives, smartly, are exempt from reciprocal Tariffs or generally, tariffing. Because he and his administration very well know that this would be the actual linchpin to their intent. They leave the shooting of foots, knees and asses to the other countries (for now).

It'd be almost funny if you didn't live in the place to see them squirm and powerlessly trying to find a way out - and then realize the only good and fast way out is to a) end the Ukrainian engagement asap and b) normalize relations with Russia to have a hope of actually getting the energy for a lower price directly, instead of buying it from middle men with dirty tanker fleets they pretend to hate.

WAit, did I hear anyone saying, "Let's Tariff secondary buyers and dealers of sanctioned countries selling their oil & gas by intermediaries"? Hmmm, maybe I did!

If you need a textbook definition of a Catch.22 - this pretty much should go in there.

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Irina Slav's avatar

Quite accurate, thank you. It is indeed funny, though I do live in the EU. Still hoping we'll avoid the Euro-Titanic. If we don't, it will stop being funny. For a while.

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