Adorbs

“To have the most powerful man in the world believe that climate change is a liberal hoax is a big problem. The rest of the world has got to pull together agreements which are as effective as possible without the US.”

The above comes to us courtesy of the brain-to-mouth link of Lord Adair Turner, former head of the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority and current head of something called the Energy Transitions Commission, which is not a commission but a think tank that describes itself as “a global coalition of leaders from across the energy landscape committed to achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century, in line with the Paris climate objective of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and ideally to 1.5°C.”

So, the head of that global coalition of leaders told the FT this week that the EU, China, and the UK needed to get together and form another coalition, of “the world apart from the US”, to keep the net zero dream alive. The EU and the UK needed to step up their cooperation with China on all things transition to prevail over the anti-net zero forces of evil, the peer and former BP employee said, without using the word evil, of course.

Now, what might be the significance of such a statement in response to Trump’s busy first weeks in office, besides the obvious fear that all transition efforts are going down the drain? Well, it is yet another admission that China kills it in all transition businesses and that the EU and the UK cannot go it alone, in case anyone ever thought they could. In the absence of one huge transition ally, they need another and there is really only one possible candidate for that part. Completely Unexpected and Impossible to Predict Development #351.

Of course, it would be a bit awkward asking the Chinese to join the coalition when both the EU and the UK have a markedly anti-Chinese foreign policy but what’s another hypocritical policy inconsistency for the people who want to ban Russian LNG and yet keep importing it like crazy.

In Trumpland, meanwhile, every last transition mask is off, as wind, solar, battery and other transitiony developers head to Washington to plead for their livelihoods, aka subsidies. As the Solar Energy Industries Association put it in a news release, “A broad coalition of energy groups and their member companies are joining forces to hold over 100 meetings with members of Congress and staff from both parties about the critical role of clean energy tax credits for supporting a robust American energy and manufacturing economy.” Brace yourselves, Congresspeople.

In addition to the talks, transitiony businesses will also be bombarding members of Congress with letters. The letters will tell their intended victims, I mean audience, how important subsidies are for America’s energy dominance and for securing the future supply of electricity in a fast-electrifying economy as well as creating 100,000 new jobs, and ye gods, do I wish I was joking.

The link above is to the SEIA letter but let me quote a letter penned by “business leaders” from the transitiony industries that says “Businesses have relied on these tax policies to plan investments, hire workers, and change their product lines. Business leaders have acknowledged that repeal will cause many to eliminate staff or to move their business abroad all together. It would also disrupt burgeoning U.S. energy supply chains.”

Upon reading this excerpt from the business leaders’ letter I could not help but be reminded of yet another of many pertinent scenes in “Parks and Recreation”, where a fast food chain threatens to leave town and lay off people because Councilwoman Leslie Knope convinced the rest of the city council to vote for the introduction of a tax on soft drinks as a means of reducing obesity rates. Long story short, the fast food chain eventually gets its way and prompts a recall for Knope.

It was from this show (and a few years on the business news beat) that I learned how popular the layoffs threat is and how effective. It’s about as effective as threats from business leaders could get. It’s the negative reinforcement equivalent of Bulgarian liberal parties references to “Euro-Atlantic values” they use to rally voter troops. You threaten jobs, you freak out voters, and both the business leaders and the members of Congress know it.

The question now is whether those members whom business leaders are going to blitz-lobby are gullible enough to buy the non-existent jobs threat. Because we all know a lot of these jobs are hypothetical and will never become real — not least because of extended wait times for a lot of critical equipment.

Fellow Energy Realities gang member and energy analyst David Blackmon has been sounding the alarm on transformer shortages for years and he’s not the only one. The fact that the FT deigned to write about it recently demonstrates that the problem has only got worse over these years.

“The time it takes to get hold of this key equipment is climbing as international manufacturers face rising demand from countries trying to install new wind turbines, solar panels and batteries to meet their decarbonisation goals,” the FT reported gloomily this week, adding that “Lengthy waits for transformers and other electrical equipment risk causing the UK to miss its ambitious goal of decarbonising Britain’s power supplies by 2030,” which is clearly absolutely unacceptable.

The FT then goes on to cite the country’s National Energy Systems Operator as saying that the transition would necessitate a “once in a generation shift in the pace of delivery”, which, however, is a double-edged sword waiting to turn on the one who wields it because this “shift” would mean much, much higher prices, because the laws of demand and supply don’t care about net-zero goals.

Speaking of prices, I leave you with this lead from another FT article this week: “The European aviation industry has drastically scaled back its ambitions for hydrogen-powered planes to help it reach net zero by 2050, according to a new forecast that warns the costs of decarbonisation have “ballooned”.” Well I never.