A week of April 1sts

One of the greatest horrors of the news world is no news. Of course, there are plenty of media outlets that are perfectly capable of creating their own news, but it still happens sometimes. Some days, even weeks, are just slow. August is traditionally the worst, as is January.

And then there are weeks when it feels like everyone is eagerly saying and doing things that need to make front pages — and they do make them. Europeans have been particularly active here this week with Americans a close second, especially in political circles. In fact, I must admit I’m not sure the Europeans did better than the Americans in terms of output.

Let’s start with Europe because it’s closer to where I’m sitting. This week in Europe was Gas Price Cap week. Only it wasn’t really Gas Price Cap week because, absolutely shockingly, the leaders of the EU failed to agree on a final cap. They did succeed in convincing Germany to drop its opposition to a cap, however, so it’s clearly a win.

Now it’s time for the boring stuff like, for example, the hows of the whole thing, if, of course, Hungary gives up its threat to sabotage the cap by vetoing it unless it is granted an exemption. Something tells me it will get its exemption, just like it got an oil embargo exemption. Say what you will about populist leaders but they seem to get things done.

In more boring stuff, the EU would need to figure out how to prevent the price cap from resulting in higher consumption. Let me rephrase, just in case: the EU wants to make gas cheaper without increasing demand for it.

In other words, because I can’t get enough of this, the EU wants to make the supply of gas more affordable but reduce demand for it. There, I think that’s enough. If it manages to pull this off (but no cheating with blackouts), I promise I will write a poem titled “The Real Miracle Workers” and dedicate it to the entire Commission.

Possibly feeling overshadowed by the EU, the UK felt the urge to blow up this week, governmentally speaking. After the minister of the interior resigned following a self-confessed and I’m sure completely inadvertent violation of email use rules, PM Truss yielded to a lettuce and also resigned.

Admirable as this achievement is, in light of intense competition, I’m proud to say that Bulgaria has also thrown its hat in the ring with an unprecedented two-day (so far) Speaker election crisis.

The parties we voted into parliament cannot agree on a Speaker. Every party keeps voting for its own candidate and rejecting all others. I’d like to say “Top that” but someone somewhere will say “Hold my beer” before I’ve finished speaking.

Moving across the Atlantic, the White House this week effectively set a target floor for oil prices by announcing it would start buying crude to replenish the SPR once prices fall to between $68 and $72 per barrel. Mockery ensued on social media. I found it endearing.

The price range appears to be based on expectations that current oil prices will change favourably in the observable future contrary to all material indications such as an OPEC+ output cut, a 60% drop in global oil and gas exploration this year, and the EU oil embargo on Russia.

But the White House is confident that its replenishment plans will motivate more U.S. drilling because they won’t just be buying, they will be locking in prices over a period of two to three years in the purchase contracts. Endearing, I told you.

Yet the replenishment plans are just plans. For a future yet unseen. In the present, President Biden has declared he is ready and willing to continue drawing on the SPR to keep petrol prices affordable for Americans even after the 180-million-barrel draw program ends. Bold. Stunningly.

In other stunning news, the G7 negotiators of the Russian oil price cap have, after months of discussions, realised that Russia has tankers and insurers, as well as friends in the East who also have tankers and insurers, so the effect of the price cap will be “muted” as someone from JP Morgan whose name I forgot said politely. Good news for Biden’s target price range, though.

Meanwhile, the head of the International Energy Agency has joined the contest for Quote of the Week.

“I expect if there are no surprises — political and technical surprises — and if the winter is a normal winter, Europe can go through this winter with some bruises here and there, but we can come to February and March” with enough gas, Fatih Birol said this week.

That’s after the German energy regulator (and business executives) sounded the alarm that without consumption cuts and more gas the country will not “come to February and March” “with some bruises here and there.”

That’s after the EU Energy Commissioner said there is not enough gas on the world market to ensure Europe’s uninterrupted supply during the whole winter.

And that’s after China said it will stop reselling LNG cargoes to Europe as it focuses on its own energy security during heating season.

Here’s to a dull and unsurprising winter. Sadly, an unsurprising winter would mean a cold winter because of geography but that’s boring stuff so nobody’s talking about it.